| With the continuous promotion of the "Health China 2030" strategy and the broadening and deepening of digital technology application scenarios,the two most important industries in the health field-pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services-have shown a coupled and coordinated development model that is intertwined and mutually dependent on each other.The coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry can not only lay a solid material foundation for the improvement of the health level of Chinese residents,but also have an important impact on the comprehensive deepening of the reform of medical and health system and the promotion of high-quality development of China’s economy.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to thoroughly study the mechanism of the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries,objectively measure the level of their coupled and coordinated development,identify the obstacles to their coupled and coordinated development,and clarify the path to their coupled and coordinated development.Pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services occupy a central position in the entire health industry,and the market size of the two industries currently accounts for nearly90% of the health industry market size.Among them,pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is located in the upstream and midstream of the health industry chain,which is the pharmaceutical R&D and manufacturing sector,and medical service industry is located in the downstream of the health industry chain,which is the sector to realize the final consumption of health products and services.The coupled and coordinated development of the two industries in the region indicates that the resource allocation within the health industry of the region is more effective and the industrial structure is more reasonable,thus continuously improving the quality of inter-industry convergence.Therefore,the coupled and coordinated development of the two industries in each region provides impetus for the high-quality development of the health industry by driving the development of health industries such as elderly care and rehabilitation,provides medical service guarantee for promoting the health level of residents,and provides new momentum for regional economic growth.By combing through the relevant literature at home and abroad in recent years,it is found that the current independent research on the development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical services has achieved fruitful results,but the literature on the coupled and coordinated development of the two industries is relatively rare.The existing theoretical studies on the coupled and coordinated development of the two industries are generally scattered in the theoretical studies on industrial agglomeration,industrial upgrading and industrial integration,so the theoretical framework and research system of the coupled and coordinated development of the two industries need to be further improved and expanded.To this end,the thesis focuses on pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and medical service industry,and constructs a theoretical framework for their coupled and coordinated development.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the current situation and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries in China,the health effects and economic effects of the coupled and coordinated development of the two are empirically analyzed with the help of various statistical measures(coupled and coordinated model,center of gravity model,Dagum Gini index and Tapio index,etc.)and econometric methods(spatial Durbin model,Bayesian model average,semi-parametric mediated effect model,etc.).Finally,according to the results of the theoretical and empirical analysis,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.Through the systematic research on the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and medical service industry,the thesis enriches the research content of industrial coupling,improves and expands the research method system of industrial coupling and coordinated development,and provides certain reference for the subsequent related research.In addition,the findings of the thesis can provide a policy basis for deepening health care reform and promoting the high-quality development of the two industries.The research content of the thesis has eight chapters,divided into four parts.The first part contains the first chapter and the second chapter.The first chapter firstly introduces the background of the selected topic and the significance of the research;secondly,it summarizes and reviews the current situation of domestic and foreign research from the aspects of comprehensive development level of industry,coupled and coordinated development,health effect and economic effect of coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry;finally,it introduces the research content and research method of the thesis and proposes the innovation of the thesis.Chapter 2 firstly summarizes the concepts of coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,medical service industry and industry,and determines the scope of the thesis;secondly,it systematically composes the theories of coupled and coordinated development,industrial symbiosis theory,evolutionary economics,synergism and sustainable development;finally,it analyzes the preconditions,motives,characteristics and path choices of coupled and coordinated development of industry,which lays the foundation of the thesis.Finally,we analyze the prerequisites,motivations,characteristics and path choices of industrial coupled development,which lay the foundation for the theoretical analysis of the thesis.The second part is Chapter 3 and Chapter 4.Chapter 3 focuses on the development status of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and medical service industry,and measures the comprehensive development level of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and medical service industry in China through the center of gravity model and Dagum Gini index,and then reveals the spatial layout characteristics and spatial heterogeneity of both in China.In Chapter4,the level of coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries is measured by establishing a coupled and coordinated degree model;secondly,the backward industries and obstacle factors of both are identified by Tapio index and decoupling method;finally,the evolution process of coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries is analyzed,and Bayesian linear regression model is applied to trend the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries in China.Finally,by analyzing the evolution of the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry,the Bayesian linear regression model is used to predict the trend of the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry in China.Chapter 5,Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 focus on the drivers,health effects and economic effects of the coupled development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services.Chapter 5 uses the spatial Durbin model and the geographic detector model to identify the drivers of the level of coupling and coordination between pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries from two perspectives of spatial correlation and spatial differentiation,respectively,and then explore the influencing factors of the development of coupling and coordination between the two industries.Chapter 6 uses a Bayesian model to verify,on average,the impact of the level of coupled and coordinated development of the two industries on the health of the population.Chapter 7 discusses the direct impact of the level of coupled and coordinated development of the two on economic growth using a nonparametric model,followed by the indirect impact of the level of coupled and coordinated development of the two industries on economic growth through a nonparametric mediation model with the level of residents’ health as the mediating variable.The fourth part is Chapter 8,which is the conclusion and policy recommendations.The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows.First,the comprehensive development level of China’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and medical service industry shows unbalanced characteristics in space.Specifically,the comprehensive development levels of both industries are not high,and they maintain similar development pace in the time dimension,while the local distribution has similar characteristics in the spatial dimension,and the overall development level of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry slightly lags behind that of medical service industry.Through the center of gravity model,it is found that the comprehensive development level of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and medical service industry is consistent in the direction of spatial change,and the spatial distribution has the characteristic of gradually overlapping.Through Dagum Gini coefficient and convergence coefficient,it is found that the overall regional disparity between the comprehensive development level of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry is large,and the regional differences have a tendency to gradually decrease.Second,the coupling and coordination between pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services is rising year by year,and the future development trend is positive,but there are differences in different regions.At the regional level,the level of coupling and coordination between pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services is high in the central region,while the level of coupling and coordination between the two is low in the eastern region.Through Tapio index,it is found that the relatively backward development level of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry restricts the coupled and coordinated development of the two industries,and then through the decoupling method,it is identified that the small scale of China’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is the main obstacle factor that restricts the degree of coupled and coordinated development.Thirdly,there is a significant spatial correlation between the coupling and coordination degree of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industries,and the spatial spillover effect of driving factors and spatial heterogeneity exist simultaneously.The global and local Moran’s I indices show that the negative spatial correlation between the coupling and coordination degree of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry gradually increases,and the number of provinces located in high and high level of agglomeration gradually increases.The correlation test based on the spatial econometric model shows that the spatial fixed-effect SDM model fits best,and the empirical results find that there are significant spatial spillover effects of fixed asset investment,education level,openness to the outside world,technological progress and infrastructure construction on the dependent variable.Under the perspective of spatial differentiation,each driving factor has an impact on the spatial pattern of industrial coupling coordination,among which fixed asset investment,education input and technological progress have a greater impact.Fourth,the coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services can promote the improvement of residents’ health.In addition,technological progress is also beneficial to promote the improvement of residents’ health level,while government control gap,environmental pollution,living variables,aging,environmental variables,education variables and saving rate inhibit the improvement of residents’ health level.Fifth,the impact of the level of coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services on economic growth varies with the degree of coupled and coordinated development of both,and the higher the level of coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical services,the more significant the promotion effect on economic growth.The results of the intermediary effect test show that there is a transmission path of "coupled and coordinated development of pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical service industry-improvement of residents’ health-economic growth",that is,the intermediary effect of residents’ health level exists.Based on the above findings,the thesis makes suggestions from the following aspects:First,adjust the industrial structure of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,and take the road of scale and intensive development.Second,the government should increase the innovation incentives of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises.Third,promote the integration of digital economy development and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.Fourth,optimize the development pattern of medical service industry and promote the development of China’s medical service level in the east,central and western regions in a coordinated manner.Fifth,deepen reform,build an inclusive system,and promote the inclusive development and governance of the medical service industry.Sixth,in line with the trend of "Internet +" development,constantly update the mode of industrial interaction. |
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