A Study On The Expected Economic Effects Of RCEP Establishment And Its Impact On Global Value Chains

In recent years,the world situation has been complicated,and factors of instability and uncertainty have increased significantly.Since 2018,covid-19 trade protectionism has risen and Sino US trade frictions have been upgraded,which has been crowding the global epidemic of the new crown pneumonia.The development of the world economy and the global value chain has been affected to varying degrees.On November 15,2020,the fourth regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement(RCEP)leaders’meeting was held.After the meeting,10 ASEAN countries and 15 Asia Pacific countries including China,Japan,South Korea,Australia and New Zealand officially signed the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement,marking the largest population,largest economic and trade scale in the world The free trade zone with the greatest development potential was officially completed.In the current era of fierce geopolitical game and resurgence of unilateralism,RCEP,as a multilateral agreement,is not only related to the economic and trade development of Member States,but also related to the development of Asia and even the world economy and global value chain.The study of RCEP has strong historical value and practical significance.On the one hand,RCEP helps to further optimize the trade environment in the Asia Pacific region and promote the optimal allocation of production factors and service resources through cooperation and competition.At the same time,China can drive a wider international cycle and realize the climb of the value chain by participating in the Asia Pacific Regional cycle.On the other hand,after the signing of RCEP,China will sign 19 free trade agreements and 26 free trade partners,and the trade coverage will be increased from 27%to 35%.The establishment of free trade area relations with Japan,South Korea and other countries through RCEP will help to enhance China’s influence in the multilateral trading system.Therefore,studying the impact of the establishment of RCEP on the global value chain will help to provide effective support for China to build a new development pattern of double cycle.The economic effect of RCEP free trade zone has always been a topic of concern to scholars.The most concentrated research results are distributed in the degree of corresponding economic improvement among Member States and the potential impact on the import and export of Member States and related industries.On the one hand,there are both developing and developed countries in the 15 countries of RCEP.The economic complementarity and competitiveness of member countries in the free trade area coexist,but the complementary advantages are more significant.After the completion of the free trade area,if more than 90%of the goods trade among member countries will eventually achieve zero tariff,it will bring huge trade space and economic development potential.On the other hand,RCEP member countries are in different positions in the global value chain.For example,Japan,Australia,South Korea and New Zealand are in the high-end position of the global value chain,while China and ASEAN are in the relatively low-end position.The completion of RCEP will not only provide labor factors and markets for developed countries such as Japan,Australia,South Korea and New Zealand,It also provides a platform and opportunity for developing countries led by China in the region to break through the "low-end lock"and realize the rise of their own value chain.With the warming of trade protectionism and the impact of COVID-19 on the economies of all countries,RCEP will promote the development of Global trade liberalization by improving the economic and trade ecology in the Asia Pacific region.This paper mainly studies the current situation of RCEP member states’participation in the global value chain and the impact of the establishment of RCEP on Member States’ participation in the global value chain.In terms of research time,this paper is divided into two parts:current situation research and prediction research.The current situation research part includes the research on the current situation of trade between RCEP Member States and the current situation of Member States’ participation in global value chain.The prediction research part studies the economic effects that the establishment of RCEP will bring and the impact and changes of participation in global value chain.In order to more clearly and intuitively reflect the research content of this paper,this paper adopts the research time structure,which is carried out in the logical order of current research and prediction research.The basic contents of this paper are as follows:the first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the research background and significance,research ideas and framework,research methods and innovations of this paper.The second chapter is literature review and theoretical review.It mainly reviews and combs the literature from the perspectives of the concept and decomposition framework of global value chain,free trade area,RCEP economic effect and research methods.At the same time,it combs and summarizes in detail the value-added decomposition method and index construction system theory of global value chain.The third chapter is the statistical analysis of the current situation of trade among RCEP member countries and the current situation of participating in the global value chain.In the part of trade status,this paper uses the global value chain trade decomposition method to analyze the trade structure and balance from the perspective of traditional trade and value-added trade(wwz decomposition);Calculate the complementarity(RCA)and competitiveness(TC)of RCEP member states;Analyze the trade dependence(FTD)of RCEP Member States and identify sensitive industries to analyze the cooperation potential among RCEP member states respectively.In addition,the third chapter also analyzes the current situation of the global value chain,uses the value-added decomposition method of the global value chain,decomposes the front and rear items of the national level and industry level of RCEP member countries,and analyzes the participation of the two countries in the global value chain,the upstream and downstream relationship and the relationship with trade partner countries,so as to obtain the current situation of RCEP member countries participating in the global value chain.The fourth chapter mainly introduces the theoretical mechanism of GTAP model,and introduces and analyzes the theoretical mechanism of model construction and the theoretical mechanism of macroeconomic effects caused by tariff and non-tariff shocks.The fifth and sixth chapters belong to the prediction research.The fifth chapter mainly analyzes the expected economic effects caused by the RCEP Free Trade Zone,and applies the dynamic GTAP model to set up three policy scenarios established in the Sino US trade war in 2018,the COVID-19 in 2020 and the RCEP in 2022,and analyzes the GDP,import and export volume and terms of trade of the RCEP member states under different situations.Changes in economic effects such as output and trade transfer effects of various industries.The sixth chapter mainly analyzes the impact of the establishment of RCEP on the participation of member states in the global value chain.This part will build a gtap-gvc model to realize the GVC decomposition in different situations by connecting the GTAP model and GVC decomposition method,so as to analyze the changes of countries’ participation in the global value chain.The seventh chapter is the research conclusions and policy suggestions of this paper,which mainly summarizes the full text,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions on the premise of the conclusions.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:first,the simulation results based on dynamic GTAP model show that the establishment of free trade area will significantly improve the real GDP and import and export trade volume of RCEP member countries,and bring about the improvement of terms of trade;It has a great impact on the domestic industries of member countries,especially the 10 ASEAN countries.With the flow of capital all over the world,China,Japan and South Korea may transfer some industries to the 10 ASEAN countries for processing and production;The trade flow among member countries has increased significantly,but there is a certain trade transfer effect,resulting in a decrease in the trade flow of RCEP member countries to other countries or regions in the world.Second,RCEP will promote the adjustment of industrial structure of all parties and give full play to their respective comparative advantages.Among them,the establishment of RCEP will lead to a significant increase in the output of textile and clothing,electronics,electrical appliances,automobiles and other industries in ASEAN countries,and the output of most manufacturing industries will be impacted and increase;The output of China’s agriculture,electronics,mechanical equipment and other industries showed an increasing trend;Output growth of automobile,mechanical equipment and other industries in Japan and South Korea;Agricultural output in New Zealand has improved.Third,among the RCEP member countries,ASEAN’s participation in the global value chain is relatively low as a whole,and the participation mode is mainly the latter participation.Among the final products produced,ASEAN has more added value from abroad,which is located at the low end of the production chain,with low technical content and mainly labor-intensive production.Fourth,the establishment of RCEP will increase the participation of member states in the global value chain to varying degrees.RCEP member countries have increased their GVC participation at the national and industrial levels,among which ASEAN has increased more,giving full play to its labor advantages and integrating more into the production activities of the global value chain.Fifth,the adjustment of domestic industrial structure brought by RCEP will lead to differences in the way Member States participate in the global value chain.ASEAN’s value chain is closer to the upstream,while China’s value chain is closer to the downstream.In contrast,the industrial adjustment of Japan,South Korea,Australia and New Zealand is not significant.