| General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized in the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: "Implementing the proactive national strategy for addressing population aging and developing the elderly care industry." China has undergone significant changes over more than 40 years of rapid development since the reform and opening-up,creating numerous miracles from the historical starting point of reform and opening-up.However,with the deepening of economic and social development and the gradual improvement of people’s living standards,the expected lifespan of the Chinese population has been extended,leading to an increasing proportion of elderly people in China,and the issue of population aging has gradually emerged.Population aging is a consequence of the ongoing material and ideological changes from society to the family during the modernization process.Continued economic and social development will inevitably deepen population aging,primarily due to the significant material satisfaction leading to extended life expectancy and declining birth rates.Population aging is not a problem unique to China but rather an inevitable stage in the development of modern human society.Currently,the issue of population aging has become an important problem that cannot be ignored in China’s modernization process,representing a new contradiction that urgently needs to be addressed in the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country.The process of population aging in China will have substantial impacts on population,economy,society,culture,and other aspects.Among them,human capital in education,as a key driving factor for economic development,determines the future direction of China’s economic development.At present,the proportion of elderly people in Chinese society is increasing,while the fertility rate is declining.The demographic dividend of the Chinese population has begun to decline.However,after the popularization of basic education and the expansion of higher education,the quality dividend of the population has gradually begun to take shape.A profound understanding of the impact of population aging on human capital in education is crucial for grasping the direction of China’s economic development under the backdrop of aging.Exploring the impact of population aging on human capital in education can uncover the inherent relationship between population aging and the quality dividend of the population,further understanding the mechanisms through which population aging affects human capital in education,thereby formulating relevant policies to better address the issue of population aging and enabling China to achieve modernization more smoothly.In this context,this paper takes population aging as the independent variable and explores the multidimensional impact relationship between population aging and human capital in education from the perspectives of stock and structure.The overall research logic and structure of this paper follow the sequence of "background and significance of the study—relevant literature and theory—internal mechanism of population aging affecting human capital in education—impact of population aging on the stock of human capital in education—impact of population aging on the structure of human capital in education—pathways and mechanisms of population aging affecting human capital in education." The paper conducts theoretical exploration and empirical analysis using theoretical frameworks and mathematical formulas,constructs empirical models,and utilizes data at the provincial level in China.The overall research content of this paper is as follows:Firstly,it provides the theoretical,mathematical,and practical foundations for empirical research.This paper reviews past research on population aging and human capital in education,initially summarizing the directions and mechanisms of the impact of population aging on human capital in education in existing studies.By organizing demographic transition theory,family life cycle theory,and human capital theory,the theoretical research process is outlined,elucidating the development and impact of population aging and the theory of human capital from formation to application,providing a theoretical basis for this study.This paper establishes two overlapping generations(OLG)models driven by education years and education investment,respectively,deduces the relationship between population aging and human capital in education under general equilibrium conditions,verifies the promotion of population aging on human capital in education in China,and provides mathematical foundations for understanding the internal mechanisms of the impact relationship between the two.Using existing data,this paper illustrates the development of aging in China in recent years,reveals the relationship between population aging and two demographic dividends,presents the development of human capital in education,and introduces relevant policies affecting its development trends,providing a practical development basis for this paper.Secondly,it empirically analyzes the impact of China’s population aging on the stock of human capital in education.This paper uses panel data from 31 provinces in China,establishes panel fixed effects models,2SLS regression models,system GMM models,and spatial Durbin models,among other econometric analysis models,to empirically test and analyze the impact of population aging on the stock of human capital in education in China.The results show that population aging has a positive impact on the stock of human capital in education in China,and the results remain robust after replacing variables and addressing endogeneity.The degree of influence of population aging on the stock of human capital in education varies across different regions,with the order of influence from high to low being central,eastern,and western regions.Under different spatial matrices,the direct effect of local population aging on the local stock of human capital in education is positive,and the spillover effect of neighboring areas’ population aging on the local stock of human capital in education is positive.Thirdly,it empirically analyzes the impact of China’s population aging on the structure of human capital in education.This paper uses panel data from 31 provinces in China,constructs an index of the advanced degree of human capital in education,establishes panel fixed effects models,2SLS regression models,system GMM models,and spatial Durbin models,among other econometric analysis models,to empirically analyze the impact of population aging on the structure of human capital in education in China.The results show that population aging has a positive impact on the stock of human capital in education in China,and the results remain robust after replacing variables and addressing endogeneity.The degree of influence of population aging on the structure of human capital in education varies across different regions,with the order of influence from high to low being eastern,central,and western regions.Under different spatial matrices,the direct effect of local population aging on the local structure of human capital in education is positive,and the spillover effect of neighboring areas’ population aging on the local stock of human capital in education is positive.Fourthly,it empirically tests the impact pathways of population aging on human capital in education.This paper uses mediation effects to test the education investment pathway affecting the stock of human capital in education and the labor force technology substitution pathway affecting the structure of human capital in education.The results show that population aging in China can promote the stock of human capital in education through the education investment pathway.Population aging promotes per capita investment in human capital education through the quantityquality substitution effect,increasing the stock of human capital in education.Population aging can promote the optimization of the structure of human capital in education through the labor force technology substitution demand pathway.Population aging leads to labor shortages,promotes the substitution of labor force technology demand in society,and promotes the upgrading of the structure of human capital in education.Finally,it empirically tests the threshold effect mechanism of population aging on human capital in education.The impact of population aging on human capital in education in China exhibits nonlinear threshold characteristics.As the degree of aging in the threshold interval increases,the positive impact of population aging on human capital in education will change,and this change varies with different explanatory variables.The impact of population aging on the stock of human capital in education begins to enhance positively when the aging reaches 6.04%,and the positive effect still exists when it reaches 14.77%,but it begins to weaken.This result holds true even when the explanatory variables are replaced.The promotion effect of population aging on the structure of human capital in education,with the index of the advanced degree of human capital in education as the explanatory variable,has a threshold value of 5.44%,and with the proportion of higher education as the explanatory variable,the threshold value is 10.17%.The impact is not significant below the threshold,but significantly positive above the threshold.This indicates that in the early stages of population aging,it only promotes moderate human capital education,and the positive impact on higher education human capital is not significant.When the degree of population aging deepens to 10.17%,population aging begins to have a positive impact on higher education human capital.Overall,China’s population aging is still in the stage of deepening the structure of human capital in education and promoting high-quality population development.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes corresponding countermeasures for elderly employment,fertility policies,retirement policies,education policies,and the elderly care industry,aiming to alleviate the burden of population aging in China and promote faster economic development. |
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