From The Demographic Dividend To The Human Capital Dividend

Demographic dividend is an important driver of economic growth.Since 1980 s, China and Shanghai are in the demographic dividend period, the proportion of the working-age population is always high,and the dependency ratio is low. But in recent years, the data shows that China’s demographic dividend and Shanghai will be downward trend is expected to affect the demographic dividend brought and how to deal with the formation of the measures, and Shanghai has become China’s future must face issue.The paper summarizes the opinion of Harrod-Domar Model, Neoclassical Growth Model, Endogenous Growth Theory and Lucas Model abort the impact for economic growth on the demographic dividend growth model and human capital. The paper summarizes population policies and human capital policies of European Union, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Germany and Beijing.Based on the above literature review, this paper discusses how the demographic dividend and human capital dividend affect on the economic growth. Firstly, the proportion of the working-age population and the dependency ratio( as two types of indicators for the demographic dividend) have been metrics and analysis of these indicators from 1990 to 2012 in Shanghai and China to show demographic dividend changes.And we found Shanghai’s demographic dividend leve has always been higher than the whole national. On this basis, drawing on relevant literature, how the demographic dividend impact on economic growth may be that the demographic dividend bring more of the workforce, and the demographic dividend will reduce the net consumption of the population, leading to a higher savings rate. Cobb-Douglas function in accordance with established demographic dividend contribution to economic growth estimates of the model and the empirical concluded: In China, the total dependency ratio drops by 1 percentage, the total economic output will increase by 0.64%, in Shanghai, the total dependency ratio drops by 1 percentage, the total economic output will increase by 0.67%.Secondly, factors affecting human capital are analyzed, and the drawing on the basis of the relevant literature, summed up the measure of human capital in various ways, but considering with the statistical data, the cost of education and average person’s school life, and analyzes the data for nearly 30 years in Shanghai and in China. Then according to Cobb-Douglas function, through empirical analysis, that in consideration of the situation of human capital factors, including human capital elasticity of labor input growth is 0.288, ie, the number of labor under the same circumstances, the average education Each increase by one percentage, economic output grows 0.288 percent.The paper briefly analyzes the current problems facing the development of the Shanghai population and related policies and measures taken, and the total resident population of Shanghai in 2020 is predicted under different scenarios. Combined with the sixth census data and the age structure of migrant, the paper predict the changes in the demographic dividend in Shanghai under different total population and its impact on economic growth. At the same time, taking into account the role of human capital to improve the promotion of economic growth, continue to analyze been upgrading human capital(the average person’s school life as a representative index) data to quantify the contribution to economic growth, that is based on migrant labor to supplement the number of Shanghai’s working-age population different from the city in 2010- 2020 average years of schooling were to increase by 15%-29%, in order to offset the decline in economic growth, the demographic dividend negative impact.Finally, based on the above estimates, the paper suggests that we should establish the release system of human resources information and early warning system, form a market allocation, proper government guiding mechanism to guide people to explore the implementation of enterprise-led, for migrant workers and graduates of vocational education, household income levels are encouraged to increase investment in education and training to encourage and regulate corporate investment in education and training for staff, emphasis on mobile Internet enhance the role of human capital in the other six aspects of policy recommendations.