The Measurement Of China's Demographic Dividend Including Human Capital

China's demographic dividend problem has become an important topic for economic research.The most important reason of demographic dividend having attracted much attention is that it is an important source of economic growth.Recently,the trend of aging people has intensified.Thus resulted in many researches about China's demographic dividend,of where the connotation and measurement of the demographic dividend are not agree.For more in-depth study of these questions help to grasp the population factor supply contribution to economic growth,and provide data support for the establishment of population policy and macroeconomic policy in China.Existing literature focuses on labor quantitative demographic dividend from the perspective of population age structure.It is think that the demographic dividend is a population age structure characteristics of producing,the labor supply is adequate and the savings rate is increasing significantly,so make a contribution to economic growth.The definition of demographic dividend focuses on labor supply "quantity" contribution to economic growth,this article called "labor-intensive demographic dividend".However,labor supply contribution to economic growth,not only depends on the number of labor,also depends on labor education.The economic growth effect of labor education is called "labor-education demographic dividend".Labor education is the most important way of human capital accumulation.In this paper,the joint contribution of the population age structure and human capital to economic growth is collectively known as demographic dividend including human capital.Existing literature often uses CD production function as the measure modeling of demographic dividend.But the classical CD production function is restricted to measure demographic dividend.On the one hand,based on CD production function,elements of input-output elasticity coefficient and technology level in a certain period of time is constant,while the population age structure and labor education usually changes every year;on the other hand,CD production function does not take the endogenous effect of capital factor and labor factor itself and the interaction between them into account,and the advantage of labor education has the characteristics of biochemistry inside itself.Considering these limitations,the transcendental logarithmic production function set more flexible and more compatibility as a better theory model to measure the demographic dividend.Based on Transcendental logarithmic production function,we estimate China's demographic dividend including human capital.Empirical analysis results show that the average of the demographic dividend including human capital is about 10 percent from 1991 to 2014.The demographic dividend including human capital showed a rapid increasing trend since 2000,and fluctuated within a narrow range after 2011.As the increasing of human capital compensates labor quantitative demographic dividend decreasing,China's demographic dividend including human capital maintains a stable development.