| Population is the core element of economic and social development and an important support for promoting high-quality development and building a new development pattern.With the development of the economy and the progress of science and technology,the change of the age structure of the population,especially the increase of the proportion of the elderly population,has become a general trend of population development in the world today.China entered an aging society around 2000.Although it was later than Western countries in terms of time,it entered into an aging society under the condition of underdeveloped economy and imperfect social security.The challenges brought by the aging problem to our country are quite more prominent than developed countries.The situation in Liaoning Province is particularly severe.According to the age structure data of the seventh national census,Liaoning Province’s population over 60 years old accounted for 25.72%,and the population over 65 years old accounted for 17.42%.Both figures ranked first in the country,respectively higher than the national average level is 7.02 and 3.92 percentage points,and Liaoning Province has entered a deeply aging society,and is even moving towards a super-aging society.Along with the aging process,Liaoning Province has been in a state of ultralow birth rate for a long time,with a serious tendency of declining birth rate.The longterm economic downturn has led to the continuous outflow of working-age population,and the problem of population age structure is very acute and prominent.Changes in the age structure of the population will have an impact on the fiscal balance of local governments by affecting labor supply,social security,resident savings,household consumption,and government expenditure.In the Northeast region represented by Liaoning,on the one hand,the economic downward pressure has been relatively high in recent years,and the fiscal capacity has been reduced;Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of aging on the local fiscal balance.Based on the above reasons,this paper takes Liaoning Province as the main research object,and analyzes the possible impact of changes in the age structure of the population on the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure.The specific research contents include:Chapter One Introduction.Starting from the elaboration of the research background,it introduces the research questions,introduces the research significance,research ideas,research content and research methods,and puts forward the possible innovations and shortcomings of the article.The second chapter is literature review.Starting from the relevant research on the change of population age structure,systematically sort out the possible comprehensive impact of the change of population age structure on the economy and society,focus on the analysis of the ways in which the change of population age structure affects the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure.The third chapter is theoretical analysis.Based on the theories of budget balance,fiscal decentralization,population transition,and intertemporal consumption,a generational alternation model is established to analyze the impact of changes in population age structure on the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure,and the transmission path of the impact is proposed.The fourth chapter is the analysis of the current situation.The reasons for the change of population age structure in Liaoning Province are analyzed,and at the same time,the change trend of Liaoning’s financial related revenue and expenditure is analyzed under the influence of population age structure change.Chapter five,empirical test.Taking the panel data of various cities in Liaoning Province from 2005 to 2019 as the analysis sample,the metrological test is carried out on the basis of theoretical analysis.At the same time,according to the possible transmission mechanism,it is confirmed whether the mediation effect exists,and the relationship between the mediation variable and the explanatory variable is analyzed.Chapter 6,Numerical Simulation.Predicted the population size and age structure of Liaoning Province by 2050,predicted the future economic aggregate and growth rate of Liaoning Province based on population changes,and then predicted the changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure related to changes in the population age structure,and quantitatively analyzed the population age Impact of Structural Changes on Fiscal Balances.Chapter Seven,Conclusions and Policy Recommendations.According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,on the premise of adapting to the change of population age structure,put forward countermeasures and suggestions on improving the policy guarantee system,building the public service system and developing the modern industrial system.Based on the above research,this paper draws the following conclusions:In terms of theoretical analysis,this paper establishes a generational alternation model to analyze the impact of population aging on fiscal balance.Under the condition that intertemporal budget constraints can be maintained,the aging rate is negatively correlated with fiscal balance.Conducive to long-term financial balance.The transmission path of the impact of changes in population age structure on the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure is proposed.The population age structure directly affects the income tax revenue with labor as the taxable object by changing the supply scale of labor force;Changes will directly affect the turnover tax revenue that is taxed on commodities;they may also affect the fiscal revenue indirectly by affecting the scale of labor supply and consumption demand,thereby causing changes in total output.In addition,the aging of the population age structure affects the government’s expenditure on public services by increasing the government’s pension security burden and the pressure on the construction of China’s social pension service system.In the empirical analysis,through the statistical description of the historical data of the population age structure change and the fiscal balance,the measurement test is carried out on the basis of the theoretical analysis.Select economic variables such as the proportion of fiscal revenue and expenditure in regional GDP,the dependency ratio of the elderly population,the dependency ratio of the young population,the total retail sales of social consumer goods,population size,the scope of government governance,and the consumer price index.From the regression results,the elderly dependency ratio has a positive impact on the expansion of the fiscal balance gap,and the dependency ratio of the child population has no significant impact on the fiscal balance.At the same time,according to the possible transmission mechanism,the corresponding intermediary variables are selected to reflect the labor supply effect,consumption demand effect and public service effect,and the existence of the intermediary effect is confirmed by the Bootstrap method.By analyzing the relationship between related variables,the old-age dependency ratio is obtained.The improvement of labor will lead to the imbalance of fiscal revenue and expenditure by reducing labor supply and consumption demand and increasing public services.In the numerical simulation,the population size and age structure of Liaoning Province are predicted by 2050,and then the future economic aggregate and growth rate of Liaoning Province are predicted based on population changes,and finally the current and future financial related to the population age structure are compared Changes in the proportion of income and expenditure in regional GDP,and then analyze the impact of changes in population age structure on fiscal balance.Overall,under the background of population age structure changes,local fiscal revenue in Liaoning Province will maintain a relatively stable relationship with regional GDP,and the proportion of fiscal expenditures related to age structure changes in regional GDP will rise from about 6.5% to 19%.%,it may intensify the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure,which is not conducive to the realization of local fiscal balance.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects: First,the innovation in the research perspective focuses the research on a single province.The aging trend of Liaoning Province is more advanced than other provinces,and the financial self-sufficiency is relatively fragile.Based on the research with Liaoning as the representative,it can provide some reference for other provinces and has greater practical significance.At the same time,changes in expenditure responsibilities caused by changes in the age structure of the population,because the city-level and below are more responsible for the expenditures for the elderly,the aging situation and fiscal revenue and expenditure pressures faced by different cities are also different.This paper chooses municipal-level data Conduct analysis to enhance the connection between theory and practice.The second is the innovation of research content,systematically analyzing the transmission mechanism of changes in population age structure to local fiscal balance,establishing a generational alternation model to analyze the impact of aging on fiscal balance,and proposing that changes in population age structure affect local fiscal balance Through empirical analysis,the adverse effects of aging on fiscal balance and the existence of the three transmission mechanisms are confirmed.The third is the innovation of research methods,which quantitatively predicts the future trend of fiscal revenue and expenditure related to the age structure of the population.Using practical data such as statistical yearbooks and local financial final accounts reports,sorted out income and expenditure related to the elderly such as social security subsidies,predicted the growth scale and trend,and confirmed the intensification of changes in the age structure of the population from both absolute scale and relative proportion.The contradiction between local fiscal revenue and expenditure has been eliminated. |
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