Research On The Potential Growth Of China's Economy And Fiscal Revenue:Under The Background Of Population Aging

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,China's economic and social development has achieved remarkable success,the country's comprehensive national strength has been substantially improved and the fiscal strength has been greatly enhanced.However,with the deepening influence of the family planning policy and the gradually reversal of child-bearing ideology brought about by economic and social development,China's population structure is undergoing tremendous changes as well.Now,China has entered a period of continuous declination in the proportion of the labor force.The accelerating population aging has not only adversely affected potential economic growth,but also posed a challenge to fiscal sustainability and security in the long run.Many scholars have noticed the threat of aging population to financial stability,but researches are mainly focused on the pressure in fiscal expenditure aggravated by population aging.However,both revenue side and expenditure side factors will cause fiscal imbalance Especially in the long run,the fiscal revenue growth will be slackened,with the potential economic growth weakened by aging population.Therefore,this paper focuses on the impact of aging on fiscal revenue,with a view to providing a reference for the study of fiscal balance under the background of aging population.This paper start with an introduction of the fiscal and economic theory related to the relationship between"finance-economy"and"population-economy",in 2~edd chapter.The theoretical deduction shows that,with the development of economy,the demand for public goods is increasing,driving the continuous increase of fiscal expenditures,and national income growth provides more room for fiscal revenue growth;nevertheless,the aging population will accelerate the growth of fiscal expenditure,while slow down the growth of national income,thus,with the limitation of the distribution of fiscal revenue in national income,the fiscal revenue growth will eventually slow down.Further,in 3~rdd chapter this paper compares the status quo and evolution of China and other aging countries in terms of population development,economic growth,and the proportion of fiscal revenue to national incomes,in order to find out commonalities among them,providing a reference for estimating the potential economic growth and fiscal revenue in the context of aging population.According to the above-mentioned economic theoretical analysis and international experience comparison,in 4~thh chapter this paper primarily estimates the potential economic growth trend of China in the future(2018-2050)on the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function and Solow growth model,using population forecast data and assuming other conditions remain unchanged,then draws a conclusion:The potential economic aggregate of China,under the background of population aging,is still growing,but the growth rate is gradually declining.From 2021 to 2025,the annual growth rate of potential GDP will fall to3.9%;from 2025 to 2030 to 3.4%,and from 2031 to 2035 to 2.9%,it is 2.6%,3.1%and 3.6%lower than the lower limit of annual growth target of the 13~thh Five-Year plan(6.5%),respectively.The prospect of keeping steady economic growth is grim.Since then,in 5~thh chapter,based on the historical experience of other typical aging countries in the world,this paper makes reasonable assumptions about the growth trend of the proportion of China's future fiscal revenue to GDP growth,and combined with the above economic growth simulation results,we obtain a reasonable estimate of China's future fiscal revenue growth potential.The above analysis shows that the trend of the proportion of general public budget revenue to GDP in China since 1995 is similar to that of other aging countries:according to the current aging trend of China's population,keeping other factors unchanged,from 2018 to2050,with the continuous expansion of economic scale and the gradual increase of per capita income level,the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP will gradually stabilize,.Although the overall scale of fiscal revenue will continue to grow,the growth rate will slow down.In the next five years(2018~2022),the average annual growth rate of China's potential fiscal revenue will drop to around 4.5%,and will continue to fall,dropping to less than 2%between2046 and 2050.Finally,based on the above analyses,in 6~thh chapter this paper proposes four issues that should be emphasized when considering long-term financial stability and planning relevant fiscal policies in the context of population aging,and validates the effectiveness of three specific policies,namely,delaying the statutory retirement age,improving the level of workers'kills training and promoting total factor productivity.