The Influence Of Population Aging On The Balance Of Trade

With the advancement of world population aging, more and more countries began to face a series of issue caused by population aging, and these issues are related to many aspects of economy. At the mean time, with the further development of economic globalization, international trade develops rapidly, and world trade patterns and international trade forms are changing. The dissertation made a study of the influence of population aging on the trade balance under such a background, and it is meaningful to the studies of world economy and population aging.First, based on Life Cycle Hypothesis, the dissertation established a theory model by adjusting and simplifying the classic model, and then, carried out a simulation based on the theory model, to take a theoretical discussion on the influence of population aging on the trade balance. The theoretical analysis shows that population aging could worsen the trade balance.Second, based on the theoretical analysis, the dissertation carried out empirical analysis from two aspects, world and China. In world's aspect, the dissertation analyzed the influence of population aging on the total trade balance and the bilateral trade balance by using Binary Choice Model. In China's aspect, the dissertation analyzed the trade balance between China and developed countries by using Panel Data Model. The result of empirical analysis shows that, compared to developing countries, the trade balance of developed countries is more likely to be influenced by population aging.Third, based on the previous analysis, the dissertation took some factors (the difference in consumption, demographic transition and the difference in aging, social security, foreign direct investment) which were ignored in the previous theoretical model and empirical analysis into consideration. The discussion shows that, because of the difference in these factors, influence of population aging on trade balance in different countries is different, and also different from theoretical influence.Finally, on the basis of the previous research, the dissertation comes to the conclusion that population aging could affect the trade balance in certain extent, but the influence is conditional and especially different between developed countries and developing countries. Based on the conclusion, the dissertation forecast the change of the trade balance by taking the trend of population aging into account, and gave the Enlightenment to China.