Research On The Impacts Of Artificial Intelligence On The Demand For Skilled Labor In China

Like all technological advances before,AI brings a series of challenges while liberating productivity and driving economic growth.Including the hotly debated "machine for human"and employment replacement issues.So,how does AI affect the demand for skilled labor?Can it create a coupling force to enhance the labor structure?What channels does it use to affect the employment?Will it change our income?A series of questions surrounding the impact of AI on the labor market have the urgency and importance of research.However,the world is currently at the stage of AI introduction,the systematic analytical paradigm has not been formed yet.Based on this,this paper systematically investigates the impact of AI on the demand for skilled labor and answers the above questions.By combining the research perspective of Labor Economics with the knowledge related to computer science and data mining.This paper uses a combination method of literature analysis,theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.The main research contents and findings are as follows.Firstly,we find that scholars have presented contrasting attitudes on the prospect of the impact of AI,with both encouragement and concern.The reason for this is that the speed of AI technology application and the intensity of labor replacement have been overestimated to some extent.Therefore,based on a systematic review of relevant literatures,this paper establishes a Task-Based Framework(TBF)theoretical model.Assuming that there are two sectors in the economy:Production vs Non-Production.AI is put into as an input factor in the production sector and behaves as an exogenous growth factor in the non-production sector.After the equilibrium analysis and comparative static analysis,we find the effect of AI on the labor inputs when it is engaged in work tasks.When the products of the two sectors are complementary,AI substitutes for high-skilled labor and causes labor flows from the production sector to the nonproduction sector.When the products of the two sectors are substitutes,AI substitutes for medium-skilled and low-skilled labor and causes labor flows from the non-production sector to the production sector.AI generates new job tasks,and the creation of new tasks compensates for high-skilled labor.In the Strong AI stage,it will substitute for high-skilled labor.Secondly,the transmission mechanism affirms the two-way effects of AI on skilled labor.The mechanism analysis explores four effects of AI of the labor market.Technology Penetration Effect,which is due to the production property of AI,inevitably causes a part of labor to be replaced by the new technology in the short term,leading to unemployment.Task Creation Effect,which is derived from the Employment Compensation Theory,AI extends the boundaries of the work tasks of the skilled labor,increasing the demand and wages of a part of the labor force.Group Intelligence Enhancement Effect,AI creates a knowledge economy,improves the skill endowment and income of the labor force,realizes high-quality employment,and reshapes the employment structure.Employment Transfer Effect,which continuously breaks down the original industry job barriers,makes labor mobility more flexible than before.In addition,considering the economic feasibility,this paper points out a series of factors that affect the effect of AI.Including the basic resources structure,population age structure,human capital structure,cost structure,market structure,investment structure,and policy intervention.Thirdly,in terms of the scale of skilled labor demand,AI significantly contributes to the growth of the overall demand scale of skilled labor.A task creation mechanism exists for AI technologies at the firm and industry levels.Technology in Weak AI stage has limited substitution for labor elements.Intelligent areas still require a large amount of labor to perform supervisory and operational control work.Micro-level empirical analysis used firm panel data of manufacturing industries from 2011-2019.It shows that technological innovation and AI applications are positively correlated with the total number of employees in firms.There is a degree of temporal heterogeneity in this effect,employment is getting a significant boost in 16 years after the application of AI technologies.The highest effect appears in the 3rd year afterward,but from the 7th year afterward,the size boost effect is no longer significant.The macro-level empirical analysis used provincial panel data in China from 2006-2019.It shows that the application of AI has a significant employment scale-boosting effect.Then it shows a positive demand scale increase in the sub-regional heterogeneity regression,with the most significant effect in western regions.Fourthly,concerning the structure of skilled labor demand,we find that AI innovation has a dual bias of education-job.AI reduces the scale of labor demand in the direct production sector,and this effect is direct and relatively rapid.The new products and new jobs of AI will have a skill and knowledge biased posture.The empirical test confirms this theoretical hypothesis.AI applications at the micro-level is negatively correlated with direct production personnel.Among non-direct production personnel,the regression coefficient of technical personnel is the largest,followed by sales personnel.The share of managers is not significant for the application of AI.In terms of human capital endowment,the demand enhancement effect of those with a college education and above is the largest.Labor force with elementary school education and below also shows a positive correlation with AI,but the absolute value of the coefficient is small.Labor force with middle school and high school education shows a significant negative correlation with the application of industrial robots.This trend of polarized development of skill labor demand is most significant in eastern regions.Fifthly,AI can significantly promote the growth of income levels.Group Intelligence Enhancement Effect and Task Creation Effect will improve the income level of the whole society’s labor force.There is a significant negative correlation between AI and the average income of employees in manufacturing enterprises.Although it,from a macro perspective,the application of AI can significantly improve the overall income level.This income enhancement effect has industry-regional heterogeneity,the eastern regions with higher levels of economic development and better employment guarantees have the greatest increase in the income level.Finally,based on the results,this paper proposes policy recommendations from three levels of micro-enterprise,meso-industry and macro-governmenton.These policy recommendations are put forward on improving labor skill,reducing unemployment risk,reconstructing labor market balance,seizing AI dividends,and promoting the realization of common prosperity.The main innovations of this paper are:(1)In the theoretical model,we considered the different impacts on the economy and society of two-staged AI.The stage differences of AI are introduced into the analysis process.Analyzing the risks and opportunities of the impact on high-skilled labor in the stage of Weak AI and Strong AI.(2)We analyze the four channels of AI on skilled labor.Based on the typical facts of AI development and application,we analyze the effect on labor market by AI from the dual perspective of education-job at both micro and macro levels,and propose seven points of the economy that may affect the effect of AI.(3)In the empirical analysis,we realized a scientific measurement of AI application indicators.Using text mining technology to extract the information related to AI application in enterprises.We improve the scientificity of the empirical research conclusions and provide a reference for the definition of AI at the micro-enterprise level.