The Study On Unbalanced Employment Growth In China’s Manufacturing Industry From 2000 To 2020 Based On Shift Share EM2 Model

If there is no heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of an object or phenomenon,it is difficult to attract the attention of geographers.The remarkable feature of the industrialization process is the unbalanced growth trend of the manufacturing industry in the industrial and spatial dimension.Since China joined WTO in 2001,the manufacturing industry has been gradually embedded into the global economic system,and the degree of professional division of labor and cooperation has been deepening.Export-oriented areas and industries have created more employment growth.Under the new normal,China’s economic growth slows down and economic development enters the stage of structure optimization and quality improvement,which further changes the spatial pattern and industry structure of employment growth in China’s manufacturing industry.The report to the 19 th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that the principal contradiction facing Chinese society has evolved into the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.The Shift Share model is an effective tool to decompose the regional unbalanced economic growth,which is dominated by the difference of industrial structure and competitiveness.The essence of the Shift Share model is not to decompose the composition of regional economic growth,but to decompose the deviation of regional economic growth.In order to solve the interweaving problem of the competitive component and the structural component in the Shift Share classical model,Esteban-Marquillas introduced the standard structure into the classical model to form the EM1 model,and then introduced the standard structure into the structural based model to form the EM2 model.Shift Share EM1 and EM2 models are equivalent at the regional level,but the difference and application value of Shift Share EM2 model at the industrial level have not been discovered.The purpose of this study was to demonstrate and explain the separation effect and component meaning of the Shift Share EM2 model at the industry level,expand the application scope of the model combined with different employment growth scenarios,put forward the index of horizontal comparison of the regional deviation degree and the industrial deviation degree,and apply the Shift Share EM2 model to analyze the unbalanced employment growth of China’s manufacturing industry during2000-2020.The key scientific questions that need to be addressed are: What is the difference between Shift Share EM2 and EM1 model? Can the Shift Share EM2 model still achieve the separation of structural component and competitive component at the industrial level? What is the true meaning of allocation component? How to compare the deviation degree of different scale regions and industries?The research contents include model validation,category expansion and model application.The model verification mainly includes the relationship between the expansion model of Shift Share analysis based on standard structure and the classical model and the structural based model;Shift Share EM1 and EM2 model differences and the separation effect of structural component and competitive component at regional and industrial levels;a reinterpretation of the meaning of allocation component.Category expansion mainly includes twelve types of industry deviation under the growth scenario composed of the combination type of initial industrial structure and competitiveness and the difference of industrial growth rate at regional and national levels;Eight types of regional deviation based on the positive and negative combination forms of regional structural component,competitive component and allocation component;The index and calculation method of regional deviation degree and industrial deviation degree can be compared horizontally.The application of the model mainly includes the deviation pattern,type,process and spatial differentiation influencing factors of unbalanced employment growth in China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2020 based on the Shift Share EM2 model.The results of model verification show that the EM2 model can realize the separation of structural component and competitive component at the industry level,that is,the effect of initial industrial structure imbalance and unbalanced growth process can be separated from the unbalanced growth of regional employment.The Shift Share model uses the share component to represent the balanced growth of regional economy.The Shift Share model EM2 takes into account the balance of initial scale structure and growth rate structure,while the EM1 model only considers the balance of growth rate structure.The structural component of EM2 model measures the deviation of economic growth caused by the difference of the industrial proportion in the base period under the premise of the same industrial growth rate,which can reflect the specialization advantage based on the initial industrial scale.The expression of Esteban-Marquillas only revealed the distribution characteristics of regions in the industrial structure of relative competitive advantages without directly explaining the meaning of the allocation component.The allocation component actually reflects the inhibition or reinforcement of competitive advantages or disadvantages and initial structural advantages or disadvantages in the process of economic growth.In terms of the expansion of application scope of the model: Firstly,according to the combination types of initial structural advantages or disadvantages,competitive advantages or disadvantages,and the growth situation composed of the growth rate difference of the industry at the regional and national levels,twelve types of industry deviation are divided.By combining the positive and negative combinations and absolute values of structural components,competitive components and allocation components,it can be seen that the industrial deviation types of A1,A3,D2 and D3 show positive deviation for economic growth;the industrial deviation types of B1,B3,C2 and C3 show negative deviation;and the industrial deviation types of A2,B2,C1 and D1 include two possibilities of positive deviation and negative deviation.Secondly,according to the positive and negative combination of structural component,competitive component and allocation component,eight regional deviation types corresponding to the quadrants of three-dimensional coordinate system are divided.Finally,due to the difference of economic scale,the degree of deviation cannot be directly compared with the shift component.In order to compare the deviation degree horizontally,the regional deviation degree and the industrial deviation degree can be calculated by ratio of the shift component and the absolute value of share component.The static analysis of unbalanced employment growth in China’s manufacturing industry during 2000-2020 shows that,in the spatial pattern of the scale and degree of deviation,the expansion area is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal area and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,while the contraction area is mainly distributed in Northeast,North,Southwest and Northwest China.The region to which the regional deviation type belongs most is the sixth quadrant of minus plus minus,followed by the third quadrant of minus minus plus.In the process of employment growth,the inter-industry allometric growth leads to the change of industrial structure,which can be divided into expansion industry and contraction industry based on the difference of industrial growth rate.From 2000 to 2020,China’s labor-intensive industry was the sector with negative growth and contraction,and the regional quadrants were distributed in the second,fourth,fifth and seventh quadrants.Resource-intensive industries and capital-intensive industries are low-speed shrinking sectors,and the regional quadrants are distributed in the first,third,sixth and eighth quadrants.The technology-intensive industry is the rapid expansion sector,and the regional quadrants are distributed in the first,third,sixth and eighth quadrants.With the same type of deviation,regional structure and competitive advantages and disadvantages are the same.Then,combined with the industrial growth situation at the national and regional levels,the segmentation industry deviation type is determined,as well as the subordination relationship with the negative growth shrinking industry,low-speed shrinking industry and high-speed expansion industry.The dynamic analysis of unbalanced employment growth in China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2020 shows that: The evolution process of regional deviation degree and scale of spatial pattern of China’s manufacturing industry is basically the same.During 2001-2007,the expansion area was mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas,and during 2008-2014,the expansion area shifted from the eastern coastal areas to the central and western areas.From 2015 to2020,the expansion areas are mainly in the eastern coastal areas and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,with obvious characteristics of "southward migration".In the evolution stages of the scale and degree of regional deviation of unbalanced employment growth of China’s manufacturing industry,2008 and 2015 are two obvious transition points,which can be divided into three periods(2001-2007,2008-2014 and 2015-2020).All regions are grouped into seven categories according to the positive and negative combination types of deviation values in the three periods.The deviation trajectory of labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industries takes 2009 as the transition point,and the deviation trajectory of resource-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing industries takes 2015 as the transition point.Each factor intensive industry divides the deviation trajectory type according to the main quadrant evolution before and after the transition point.The analysis of spatial heterogeneity influencing factors of unbalanced employment growth in China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2020 shows that:The main factors that significantly affect the deviation from the spatial heterogeneity of unbalanced employment growth in China’s manufacturing industry are the total export value,manufacturing capital construction investment,per capita GDP,industrial output value,the number of students in higher and secondary vocational schools and the total retail sales of consumer goods.The interaction of all indicators is double factor enhancement,except the total retail sales of consumer goods,the interaction of other indicators is larger.There is no significant difference in the explanatory power of all leading factors to the regional deviation degree of unbalanced growth of manufacturing employment.Except for the number of students in higher and secondary professional schools,the average regional deviation degree of the other indexes in the grading interval showed an increasing trend,and only a few of the regional deviation degree of the grading interval had significant differences in spatial heterogeneity.The research significance lies in pointing out the difference between Shift Share EM2 model and EM1 model,verifying and expanding the application value and scope of EM2 model,and sort out the deviation type,pattern,trajectory and spatial heterogeneity influencing factors of unbalanced employment growth of Chinese manufacturing industry since its entry into WTO,so as to provide the corresponding reference for national and local industrial structure adjustment and employment work.The innovation points are mainly reflected in the reinterpretation of the allocation component,the expansion of the application category of the model,and the calculation method of deviation degree index.