Impact Of Cross-Border Transport Accessibility On International Trade Flows Along The Belt And Road Initiative

The "space-time compression" effect brought about by the interconnection of transport infrastructure plays a fundamental role in the process of promoting social and economic development.After the Second World War,with the rapid advancement of economic globalization and regional economic integration,the global transport infrastructure,effectively reducing transport costs and promoting the orderly flow of international production factors,which has gradually become an important driving force for the growth of global trade.In 2013,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)was put forward,with infrastructure connectivity and unimpeded trade as its key constructure content.From the perspective of cross-border transport accessibility(CBTA),this paper systematically analyzes the impact of transport development on international trade flows(ITF)along the BRI,which is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of the BRI and build a community with a shared future for mankind.This paper focuses on the core scientific question of "how the development of CBTA affects ITF along the BRI".Based on global vector data of 13744 city nodes,transport network and social-economic data from 2000 to 2018,through the use of spatial analysis software such as ArcGis,GeoDa and Gephi,as well as econometric analysis methods such as least square methodthis(OLS)and poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation(PPML),this paper firstly analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of CBTA and ITF along the BRI.On that basis,it systematically studies the impact and mechanism of CBTA on ITF and constructs a system dynamics model of CBTA affecting ITF.This paper generally follows the research vein of "Status-Correlation-Impact-MechanismSimulation".The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The overall level of CBTA along the BRI has been significantly improved,with the average minimum accessibility time decreasing from 22.77d to 18.17d.During the period,the inter-city differences in CBTA shows a certain shrinking trend,and the coefficient of variation decreases by 6.19%.The core area of CBTA expands from Europe to the southeast of Eurasia,so that from Europe,to West Asia,North Africa,Central Asia,South Asia,to China’s northwest and southeast regions,to Southeast Asia and Oceania,the "optimal accessibility arc zone" has been formed,while CBTA in Central Africa and South America is relatively poor.(2)The overall scale of ITF along the BRI has showed a fluctuating upward trend,with the total trade volume increasing from US$12.38 trillion to US$37.42 trillion by an average annual growth rate of 6.34%.The spatial pattern of ITF has evolved from "dualcore structure" of North America and Western Europe to the "three pillars" of North America,Western Europe and East Asia.In addition,international trade network of the BRI has gradually expanded in scale,and the degree of interaction and interdependence between countries has gradually increased.At the same time,international trade network has obvious small-world characteristics.On this basis,BRI’s international trade network is divided into three major trade groups,that is,trade group with China as the core distributed in East Asia,Southeast Asia,South Asia,West Asia,Africa,Oceania,and South America,trade group with Germany as the core distributed in Europe,Central Asia,North Africa,and trade group with the United States as the core distributed in North America,Central America,and the northwest of South America.(3)CBTA and ITF along the BRI have a stable time series relationship.The improvement of CBTA is the Granger cause of ITF growth for the long term,but not vice versa.In addition,there is a significant positive spatial correlation between CBTA and ITF.H-H agglomeration area is mainly expanded from Europe,West Asia and Central Asia to South Asia and East Asia,L-L agglomeration area is mainly distributed in the African continent,L-H agglomeration area is mainly distributed in Oceania,South America,Central America,North America,the Arabian Peninsula,Southern Africa and other regions,and H-L agglomeration area is scattered.(4)BRI’s CBTA has a significant positive impact on ITF,and the degree of influence gradually increases with time.From the perspective of different types of trade,CBTA also has a significant positive effect on both export and import trade flows,but its promoting effect on import trade flows is slightly greater than that on export trade flows.From the perspective of different geographical regions,the impacts of CBTA on ITF within and outside the seven regions are different.Within the regions,East Asia and the Pacific,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,Middle East and North Africa,and Sub-Sahara South Africa have presented a positive influence.Outside the regions,East Asia and the Pacific has always had a positive impact,South Asia has a negative impact,Latin America and the Caribbean is not significant,while Europe and Central Asia,Middle East and North Africa,North America and Sub-Saharan Africa have gradually shown a positive impact.From the perspective of different economic regions,the impacts of CBTA on ITF among different economic regions are different.Except for low-income countries,there are positive effects between high-income countries and types of countries,and between various types and lower-middle income countries.From the perspective of core area and expansion area,the opening of China Railway Express and the improvement of CBTA have significantly enhanced the trade flow links within the core area of the BRI and between China and the core area.From the perspective of nearmedium-long-distance accessibility,the trade effect of CBTA shows an inverted "U"effect.(5)From a macro perspective,CBTA can achieve the ITF growth along the BRI through trade cost reduction effect,international factor diffusion effect,and economic growth effect.From a regional perspective,East Asia and the Pacific,Middle East and North Africa,and Sub-Saharan Africa have three effect mechanisms,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean do not have international talent diffusion effect,and South Asia does not have international investment diffusion effect.In the economic region,only lower-middle income countries has three effect mechanisms.High-income countries does not have international migration diffusion effect and international talent diffusion effect,higher-middle income countries does not have international talent diffusion effect,and low-income countries does not have international migration diffusion effect and economic growth effect.(6)Constructing a system dynamics model of CBTA affecting ITF which consists of three subsystems:CBTA subsystem,international factor subsystem,and ITF subsystem.The subsystems interact and correlate with each other through one or more index variables to form an organic whole with specific functions.Based on the simulation,it is found that CBTA and ITF can achieve steady development from 2000 to 2035.Among them,CBTA will increase by 29%,the average annual growth rate of ITF will be close to 5%,and the intermediary effect of trade cost will be more prominent.