The Study Of Population Aging Influence On Medical And Health Expenses In China

Population aging is the trend of global population structure evolution.Our country entered population aging society in 2000 and the aging of population has become deeper in recent years.Aging of population brings severe challenge to the economic and social development of China.The medical and health service is an important people’s livelihood enterprise in China,and it is a substantial social system arrangement as well.Actively responding to population,and adjusting and optimizing the medical and health policies to adapt to the changes in the population structure are important strategic measures being implemented by the Chinese government.In recent years,China has been actively responding to the population aging and the healthy aging campaign has been carried out.At the same time,great importance has been attached to the development of medical and health services.The input of medical and health resources has been increased continuously,and the reform of the system and mechanism in the field of medical and health services has been constantly deepened.A number of policy documents have been successively introduced to promote the sustainable and healthy development of medical and health services under the background of population aging,including “The CPC Central Committee and The State Council Opinion on Strengthening the New Era Aging Work”,“National Plan of Aging Development and System for Elderly Services During the 14 th Five-Year Plan Period”,“Healthy China Initiative(2019-2030)”,“The Implementation Plan of High-Quality and High-Efficient Medical and Health Service System Construction During the 14 th Five-Year Plan Period” and “Healthy Aging Planning During the 14 th Five-Year Plan Period”,in order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of medical and health services under the background of population aging.However,as the population aging continues to deepen,the health awareness of the elderly is strengthening continuously,the demand for medical and health services continues to expand,and the medical and health costs continue to increase.How to deal with the severe challenges to the social economic development and personal life brought by the population aging is an crucial problem paid attention to by both the government and the academic world.This paper takes population aging,medical and health services and medical and health expenses as the research objects.Based on the perspective of healthy aging,the problem of population aging effects on the medical and health expenses in China has been studied,to explore the internal logic relationship of three variable factors,that is,population aging process,medical and health service demand and medical and health costs.The paper discusses the following related issues.First,the internal logical connection between the change of population structure and the demand for medical and health services under the background of population aging.From the perspective of healthy aging,how population aging affects the demand for medical and health services.Second,from the perspective of healthy aging,the effect mechanism of population aging on medical and health expenses.Third,the increasing trend of medical and health expenses in China under the background of aging population.Four,under the background of population aging,according to the requirements of healthy aging,this paper discusses the effective practice path and policy suggestions on how to meet the medical and health service needs of the elderly and effectively cope with the rise of medical and health costs.By adopting the multidisciplinary research method,the combination of qualitative research and quantitative research method,and the statistical analysis method of quantitative data,the paper uses the panel data of China Health and Old-age Tracking Survey(CHARLS),National Health Service Statistical Survey data,and the provincial panel data to carry out the research from the following six aspects:First,this paper sorts out the literature of existing research results in the domestic and foreign academic circles,collected the relevant China’s policy texts on coping with population aging,implementing healthy aging action,and reforming and developing medical and health undertakings,and conducted in-depth analysis on the literature.The paper explains the four core concepts of population aging,healthy aging,medical and health services,and medical and health expenses,and constructs the logical starting point of theoretical research.The paper explains the theory of population structure evolution,life cycle theory,medical and health service demand theory,medical and health service utilization behavior theory,optimal resource location theory,public choice theory,to construct the theoretical analysis framework of the paper.Second,the paper discusses the internal relationship between China’s aging population and medical and health expenses.This paper explains the phenomenon of population aging in China by using the theory of population structure evolution and comprehensively using macro statistics and other dimensions.It is proved that with the increase of age,the health status of the elderly population weakens year by year and the probability of diseases increases through the use of the life cycle theory.Using the medical and health service demand theory,it is analyzed that the elderly population’s medical and health service demand increases due to population aging.From the perspective of healthy aging,it is demonstrated that with the increase of age,the demand for medical and health services will continue to expand,the use of medical and health services will increase,and the pressure of medical and health costs will continue to boost,which provides a logical basis for analyzing how population aging affects the increase of medical and health expenses.Third,based on the CHARLS data from 2011 to 2018,this paper discusses how population aging affects medical and health expenses at the micro level from the perspective of healthy aging.By using the theory of health service demand,and the utilization behavior theory of medical and health services,effects of population aging to medical and health expenses are measured from the micro aspects.It analyzes the health status differences,and differences on health service demands and utilization frequency of people in different age groups.It is concluded that the elderly population’s demand and frequency of medical and health services are higher than those of other age groups,so are the medical and health costs,which proves the positive correlation between ages and medical and health expenses and the influence degree of ages on medical and health expenses from the micro level.At the same time,focusing on the elderly aged 60 and above,all kinds of factors initiative affecting the elderly’s health care costs under the background of population aging are further analyzed.The quantitative data model is used to analyze the influence factors of health costs of China’s elderly population aged 60 and above.Key factors leading to the health care cost growth of aging population are screened,and ideas are explored to adjust medical and health service policies under the background of population aging and effectively cope with the growth of total medical and health service costs.Four,based on the perspective of healthy aging,the macro data is used to empirically study the impact of population aging on medical and health expenses in China.Based on the theory of population structure evolution,the theory of health service demand,and the utilization behavior theory of medical and health services,using the national provincial panel data from 2010 to 2018,this paper discusses how the aging population affects the total medical and health expenses in China from the macro level.The internal relation between population aging and Chinese medical and health expenses is analyzed,and it is demonstrated that the positive correlation and influence exist between China’s population aging trend and total medical and health services expense growth.Five,the paper predicts the increasing trend of China’s medical and health service expenses under the background of aging population.Using quantitative data statistical analysis methods,it predicts the changing trend of medical and health expenses under the background of population aging in the view of healthy aging,and it reveals the challenges faced by the sustained rapid growth of the total cost of medical and health services under the background of the continuous growth of population aging,which provide the analysis foundations for putting forward the policy measures to implement the healthy aging initiative in China and alleviate the pressure of medical and health expenditure in the future.Six,research conclusions and policy recommendations are as follows.Based on the previous studies,this paper discusses the policy adjustments and reforms to speed up the implementation of healthy aging initiative,guide the health service demands of the elderly population,optimize the structure of health service supply and supply mode,and alleviate the pressure of the medical and health care cost growth,and proposes suggestions to cope with China’s medical and health care cost growth under the background of population aging.Through the use of a variety of analytical research methods,the following conclusions are acquired.First,according to the characteristics and development trend of population aging in China,population aging has a significant impact on the demand for medical and health services and the total cost of medical and health services.With the further deepening of aging population in China,the number of aging population and advanced age people are rising sharply.The physiological and psychological function of the elderly is weaker,and the probability of disease is higher.The healthy aging initiative has enhanced the health awareness of the elderly population,promoted the utilization of medical and health service resources for the elderly,and lead to the increase of medical and health service expenses.Second,there is a logical connection among the three variables,that is,the population aging process,demands for medical and health services,and medical and health expenses.At the micro level,the relationships between age and health status,the utilization of medical and health services and the cost of medical and health services are demonstrated.The elderly population has higher utilization of medical and health services than other age groups.The older the elderly population is,the greater the demand for medical and health services and the higher the cost of medical and health services.In the population aged 45 and above,the impact of each year’s increase in age on outpatient costs is 5.7%-7%.In the population aged 50-79,the hospitalization cost increases by 4%-13.1% for each year of increase in age.At the same time,it is proved that there are multiple factors affecting the utilization and cost of medical and health services for the elderly population.Pension income,health self-evaluation,chronic diseases,depression,social interaction and other factors also have significant impacts on the medical and health expenses of the elderly population.Third,at the macro level it is demonstrated that population aging has a complex impact on the total cost of medical and health services,but in general,there is a significant positive correlation between the degree of population aging and the total cost of medical and health services.In addition,per capita GDP,income gap between urban and rural areas,expenditures for basic medical insurance also have a positive impact on per capita total medical and health costs.The impact of the allocation of medical and health resources and the mode of medical and health services on the medical and health costs is complex.Four,with the unceasing deepening of China’s population aging in the future,our medical and health total expenses are facing the continuously increasing predicament,which has brought the important influence to our economic and social development.Five,The healthy aging initiative in China has a double effect on medical and health expenses,which reduces the medical and health expenses for helping the elderly to choose the correct healthy lifestyle and improving the ability of self-health management and increases the medical and health costs for the input adding of medical and health services resources of the aging population.So,accelerating the implementation of healthy aging initiative,guiding the medical and health service demands of the aging population,deepening the reform of the medical and health service system,and optimizing the supply structure and mode of medical and health services are the effective ways to deal with the continuous growth of the total medical and health expenses in China.