The Impact Of Population Aging On Medical Expenses

Population aging is a general trend of population development in the world today,and it is also a sign of continuous development and progress of science and economy.With the rapid development of China's social economy and medical and health services,people's living standards and health conditions have been greatly improved,and their per capita life expectancy has generally improved.The absolute number of elderly people and the proportion of the total population have continuously increased.In addition,with the implementation of the birth control policy,the population structure has undergone major changes,which has also aggravated the aging of the population.The population aging has now affected all aspects of economic and social development,and has become a hot issue that must be paid attention to in the national socio-economic and population development.Therefore,it is of great significance to thoroughly study the impact of population aging on social economy and medical and health development,to respond to the objective situation of the rapid development of population aging,to formulate China's economic and medical health development strategies,and to build a harmonious socialist society.Jilin province is an old industrial area in the northeast.Affected by many factors such as economic development and geography,the economic development of Jilin province has lagged behind in recent years.The birth rate of the population is low,the outflow of young and middle-aged population is serious,and the population aging continues to intensify,which demonstrates a severe social phenomenon as “getting old before getting rich”.Jilin province has already entered population aging in 2003.At the end of 2010,there are 3.7594 million elderly people over 60 in Jilin province,accounting for 13.80% of the total population.The number of elderly people will reach 6.124 million in 2020,and the proportion in the total population will rise to22.48%.By 2035,it will enter a stage of severe aging and will keep at a high level,and then there will be one old person out of every three people.The characteristics of population aging in Jilin province are outstanding,with rapid development,largenumbers,and uneven region distribution.As the population ageing intensifies,the demand for medical services and medical expenses continue to increase,bringing an increasingly heavy economic burden to both the country and individuals.Population aging has a great impact on the current expenditure and distribution of medical and health expenses.Therefore,how to deal with the impact of population aging on the socio-economic and health care systems,and to explore the mechanism of expenditure allocation and sharing of medical and health expenses in the context of population aging have been one of the hot issues concerned in demographics,health economics and other related fields.This study took Jilin province as an example to study the impact of population aging on health care costs,to understand the changing trend of China's medical expenses,and to respond to the impact of the rapid development of population aging on the health care system.The results of this study will demonstrate important scientific and practical significance in the formulation of health economic development strategy,the rational and effective use of health resources,and the prediction of health care costs in China.This study has designed a research project based on extensive literature review,and used Jilin province as an example to discuss the relationship between population aging and health care costs from both macro and micro perspectives.This study investigated and analyzed the funding sources of health expenses,the configuration of institutions,and the flow of medical expenses among various types of services using site survey method.And the sample sites were selected according to the SHA2011 medical cost accounting scheme and the stratified sampling principle.Statistical analysis software Stata12.0 was used to analyze the patient information.The treatment cost for the elderly over 65 was taken as the total amount,and the sample coefficient was used as the apportionment coefficient.A balanced analysis was conducted on the distribution of treatment cost among service functions,financing plans,institutional flows,and beneficiary groups for the elderly over 65 in 2014-2016 in Jilin province.The impact of population aging on the entire flow of medical expenses and the utilization of health services was explored from micro level.Data were collected from Jilin Province Statistical Yearbook and Jilin Province Population Health Statistics Yearbook.Unordered multiclassified logistic regression models and binary logistic regression models were used for data mining and processing according to Grossman health and medical service demand theory and Matteo health care expendituremacroeconomic theoretical model.This study empirically analyzed the relationship between population aging and medical costs in Jilin province from macro perspective,and explored the mechanism of the impact of population aging on medical costs.Finally,the time series model was used to predict the health care costs and development trend in Jilin province under the background of population aging.There are seven chapters in this thesis,and the structure is as follows:Chapter 1 Introduction.This section introduces the background and significance of the selected topic of this thesis.The literature review focuses on three aspects: the aging of the population,the cost of health care,and the relationship between population aging and health care costs.It also includes the main research contents,research methods,the structural arrangements,and major innovations of this thesis.Chapter 2 The concept definitions and related basic theories.This chapter first defined the basic concepts of population aging,total health expenditure,medical and health expenses,and the connotation of indicators in actual surveys.Secondly,it elaborated on health investment and human capital theory,Grossman health and medical service demand theory,Andersen medical care utilization behavioral model and SHA 2011's regular health expense accounting methodology.Chapter 3 A macro analysis on the relationship between population aging and medical expense in Jilin province.According to Grossman health and medical service demand theory and Matteo health care expenditure theoretical model,nine cross-sections and 63 observation points were selected using the city-level panel data of Jilin province from 2010 to 2016.The survey data were analyzed from multiple dimensions to verify the relationship between population aging and medical expenditure in Jilin province from macro perspective using statistical software such as Eviews,Stata,SPSS,and multivariate regression methods after the data processed based on a fixed year.The role of aging in medical expenditure was assessed,and the mechanism of the impact of population aging on medical costs was explored.Chapter 4 A micro-analysis of the relationship between population aging and medical expenditures based on SHA2011 survey.This chapter adopted the on-site survey method based on the World Health Organization(OECD)SHA2011 medical cost survey program.Sample points and sampling levels of this survey were selected according to the SHA2011 medical cost accounting scheme and stratified sampling principles.In the first stage of this site survey,Jilin Province,Jilin City,Tonghua City,and Yanbian Clan Autonomous Prefecture were selected as sample sites to retrieve data from 257 health institutions in 2014.Baicheng City was added in the second stage on the basis of the first stage,and data were collected from 876 health institutions in 2015 and 2016.Statistical analysis software Stata12.0 was used to analyze the patient information.The treatment cost for the elderly over 65 was taken as the total amount,and the sample coefficient was used as the apportionment coefficient.A balanced analysis was conducted on the distribution of treatment cost among service functions,financing plans,institutional flows,and beneficiary groups for the elderly over 65 in 2014-2016 in Jilin province.The impact of population aging on the entire flow of medical expenses and the utilization of health services was explored.Chapter 5 Analysis of the status of average treatment costThis chapter used statistical analysis to explore the relationship between population aging and average treatment costs based on the investigation and analysis of the health expenditure of the elderly population in Jilin Province.Chapter 6 Analysis on the development trend of medical and health expenditure under population aging.A time series model was established to simulate and predict the future impact of changes in population structure and related policies on health care expenditure in Jilin province using the medical cost data of Jilin province.Chapter 7 Conclusions and policy recommendations.This chapter summarized the important conclusions of this study,combined the status of population aging and regular health expenditures in Jilin province,and proposed corresponding policy recommendations.