Study On The Influence Of The Opening Of High-Speed Rail On The County Economic Gap

As an important part of a strong transportation country,the railway had a very important role and status,especially since the opening of the high-speed rail(HSR)had brought a huge impact on the general public’s perception,completely changing the impression of the original railway ticketing difficulties,slow running speed and poor carriage environment.As we all known,the construction of the Qin-Shen passenger line began in August 1999 and was completed in October 2003,kicking off the rapid development of China’s HSR construction.2008 saw the opening of the 350 km/h Beijing-Tianjin intercity train,marking the true dawn of China’s HSR era.2017 was a milestone year in the development of China’s HSR,with the completion and operation of China’s "four vertical and four horizontal" HSR network ahead of schedule.The county economy is the main grasp for the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy,the main platform for the prosperity of the rural economy,the important foundation for the development of a new type of urbanization,the grassroots guarantee for farmers to increase their income,and the important engine for high-quality economic development.The county economy is the "blood" that sustains the normal operation of the county and the "cornerstone" for building the national economic edifice.In the long run,the economic development of counties faces constraints that lead to the widening of the economic gap between counties.HSR is one of the most effective tools for balanced regional development.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct a study on the impact of HSR on the economic gap between counties in order to further narrow the economic gap between regions.What impact has the construction and operation of HSR brought to China’s economic and social development? The existing literature on the impact of HSR operations on the economy at the provincial level and at the prefecture level has reached different conclusions.This leaves some room for research in this thesis on the impact of HSR on county economic growth and county economic gap.This thesis used economic and social data from 2008—2017 from1611 counties in China to construct a theoretical model of the impact of HSR opening on county economies and its mechanism of action based on the perspective of state-designated poor counties.Through the PSM-DID,IV method,this thesis used a multi-period DID model to empirically analysed the impact of the opening of HSR on the economic gap between poor counties,"rich" counties and poor-"rich" counties.Based on the perspective of national poor counties,this thesis focused on the impact of the exogenous shock event of HSR opening on the county economy,and conducted a comparative study in each category.(1)To investigate whether the opening of HSR had positively contributed to the economic growth of poor counties,and whether the county economic gap between poor counties with HSR and those without HSR had gradually increased.(2)To study whether HSR played a positive role in narrowing the economic gap between poor counties with HSR and "rich" counties without HSR,to conduct a robust standard error clustering and endogeneity test,and to find the intrinsic transmission mechanism of the impact,as well as to analyse the heterogeneity of the impact on different regions and types of counties.(3)To investigate whether HSR had a positive effect on widening the economic gap between poor counties with HSR and "rich" counties with HSR,i.e.a gradual increased in the trend,and to conduct robustness and endogeneity tests,as well as a heterogeneity analysis of the impact on different regions and types of counties.Based on the three core issues of the impact of the opening of HSR on the county economies proposed in this thesis,and through a series of empirical analyses such as basic regression analysis,endogeneity discussions and robustness tests,the following basic conclusions were drawn.Firstly,the opening of HSR significantly boosted the economic growth of poor counties in China and widened the economic gap between poor counties with HSR and those without it.The opening of HSR had become an important driving force for the economic growth of poor counties in China.The opening of HSR was a way to influence county economic growth and thus county economic gap by affecting three mediating variables: county population density,government public finance expenditure and fixed asset investment.The opening of HSR in counties was necessary and meets the long-term development needs of poor counties,especially the choice of opening HSR in poor counties in the western region and autonomous counties in ethnic areas is the right and most practical approach.Secondly,the opening of HSR had significantly narrowed the economic gap between poor counties and "rich" counties that were not connected to HSR,again reflecting the opportunity for China’s poor counties’ economies to leverage HSR to achieve rapid development.The effect of HSR on narrowing the economic gap between poor-"rich" counties in the western region was most significant,followed by poor counties in the central region,while the economic gap between poor "rich" counties in the eastern region showed a positive but insignificant correlation.The economic gap between poor and "rich" counties in the eastern region was positively but not significantly correlated with the economic gap between poor and "rich" counties in the eastern region.The impact of HSR on the secondary industry was higher than that of the tertiary industry.Thirdly,HSR significantly reduced the economic gap between poor counties and "rich" counties with HSR.The effect of HSR on poor counties was greater,and once again,it proved that the opening of HSR helps to boost the economic growth of poor counties.An instrumental variables approach was used to test for endogeneity,the inverse of county population density,county urban slope data,and passed a two-stage least squares(2SLS),weak instrumental test and overidentification test.Compared with the existing literature,the possible marginal theoretical innovations of this thesis were reflected in three aspects,which were briefly summarized as follows.(1)Expanding the research perspective on HSR economy: studying the impact of HSR opening on county economic gapThis thesis constructs an analytical framework for the impact of the opening of HSR on economic growth and county economic gap in poor counties across the country,with counties being more micro and specific compared to previous research objects on the impact of HSR opening on regional economies,inter-provincial provinces and prefecture-level cities.Starting from poor counties,the economic effects of HSR are studied using microscopic county economic data.Expanding the opening of the HSR to the micro-level of county economies is an extension and supplement to the existing research,and provides county-level reference experience on how to achieve common prosperity.(2)Discovering a new impact mechanism: HSR promotes economic growth in poor counties by influencing local budget expendituresThis thesis finds that this thesis verifies that population density,social fixed asset investment and industrial structure optimisation,which represent the results of population mobility,have a mediating effect mechanism role,and that the opening of HSR also promotes local fiscal general public budget expenditure in poor counties,which in turn promotes economic growth in poor counties and widens the economic gap between poor counties with HSR and those without it.(3)Report the results of the new heterogeneity analysis: the positive impact of HSR on poor counties in the west is the largestHSR has a catalytic effect on the economic growth of poor counties,but at the same time there is greater heterogeneity.The impact of the opening of HSR on the economic growth of poor counties is generally seen to benefit mainly the secondary and tertiary industries,with an insignificant impact on the primary industry.Under the influence of the opening of HSR,there is a statistically significant impact on the development of secondary and tertiary industries in counties in the western region,a statistically significant impact on the development of secondary industries in counties in the central region,and no statistically significant impact on counties in the eastern region.