Research On Investment Decision-making Of Energy Storage Technologies On Renewable Energy Generation Side

Energy storage on renewable energy generation side can smooth the intermittence of renewable energy and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy power.It is an effective measure to improve the safe and economic operation level of the power system and solve the problem of renewable energy power consumption.It is of great significance to the realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.The investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is an important link of energy storage planning,and also one of the urgent problems for renewable energy power generation enterprises.Existing researches have demonstrated the feasibility of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.How to determine the optimal investment scheme of energy storage technologies from the comprehensive perspective such as economic benefits,environmental benefits and investment risk still deserves further study.Therefore,this paper has a very important significance in the theoretical system and practical application.In order to study the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper takes pumped energy storage,compressed air energy storage,lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage and hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power as the research objects,and constructs a theoretical analysis framework,which takes into account energy,economy,environment,technology and society dimensions.On this basis,this paper studies the economic benefits,environmental benefits and investment risk of energy storage technologies,constructs the investment decision-making model of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and proposes the investment scheme of energy storage technologies under the single objective and multiple objectives portfolio.The main research contents and results of this paper are as follows:In terms of the theoretical analysis of the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper firstly analyzes the composition and operation mechanism of energy storage on renewable energy generation side,and defines the research scope.Secondly,this paper analyzes the system function of energy storage on renewable energy generation side,and reveals the influence mechanism of energy storage system on energy-economy-environment system.Finally,this paper analyzes the relevant theory of the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side from four aspects,including economic benefits,environmental benefits,investment risk and investment scheme selection.On this basis,a theoretical analysis framework for the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is constructed,which takes into account energy,economy,environment,technology and society dimensions.In terms of the economic benefits of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper constructs a cost-benefit model to evaluate the economic benefits of energy storage technologies and compares the levelized cost of different energy storage technologies.The profitability analysis and sensitivity analysis are carried out with the example of hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power.The results show that the levelized cost from low to high is hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power,pumped energy storage,compressed air energy storage and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage.The levelized cost mainly comes from investment cost and operation and maintenance cost.The important factors affecting the levelized cost of hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power are technological progress,electricity price of wind power and converter efficiency.The important factors affecting the net present value and internal rate of return are hydrogen price,energy consumption intensity of electrolytic cell and electricity price of wind power.In terms of the environmental benefits of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,the life cycle assessment method is used to calculate the atmospheric characteristic material emission,ecological environment impact and resource consumption.Moreover,this paper studies the influence of the input change of main material on the environmental benefits of energy storage technologies.The results show that the CO₂ emissions of pumped energy storage and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage mainly occur in the production stage,while the CO₂ emissions of compressed air energy storage and hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power mainly occur in the operation stage.The ecological environment impact from high to low is lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage,compressed air energy storage,hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power and pumped energy storage.The most sensitive materials to the environmental benefits of pumped energy storage are iron,diesel and cement,the most sensitive materials to the environmental benefits of lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage are styrene butadiene rubber,polyvinylidene fluoride and lithium iron phosphate,and the most sensitive material to the environmental benefits of compressed air energy storage and hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power is electricity.In terms of the investment risk of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,this paper constructs an investment risk evaluation model of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and evaluates the investment risk of energy storage technologies based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.The results show that the investment risk of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is medium risk,and the investment risk from high to low is hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power,lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage,compressed air energy storage and pumped energy storage.Taking hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power as an example,the risk of the first-level indicators from high to low is technical risk,management risk,environmental risk,economic risk,market risk and policy risk,among which technical risk,management risk and environmental risk belong to high risk,which are the risks that decision makers need to focus on.In terms of the investment scheme selection of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,the investment decision-making model based on the interval type-2trapezoidal fuzzy number sets and PROMETHEE-II method is constructed.This paper evaluates the comprehensive benefits of energy storage technologies and determines the optimal investment scheme.Moreover,this paper analyzes the impact of single objective and multiple objectives portfolio on the investment scheme selection of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.The results show that the optimal investment sequence is pumped energy storage,hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power,compressed air energy storage and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage.When enterprises consider the economic benefits priority,green development priority and social benefits priority,enterprises will preferentially choose hydrogen production from water electrolysis by wind power.When enterprises consider technology priority and resource conservation priority,pumped energy storage become the optimal technology selection.When enterprises adopt multiple objectives portfolio,pumped energy storage is the optimal technology selection in most scenarios,and lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage is the worst technology selection.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward the investment strategy of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.First,renewable energy generation enterprises can increase the investment in the research and development of energy storage technologies,introduce advanced energy storage equipment,use technological progress to strengthen the scale effect,and promote the reduction of investment cost of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side.At the same time,enterprises need to actively participate in the auxiliary service market,and broaden the income sources of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side through multiple channels.Secondly,enterprises need to formulate pollution prevention and control plans,strengthen environmental monitoring and management,pay attention to the key stage of pollutant emission,and reduce the use of highly sensitive materials.Thirdly,enterprises need to focus on the high-risk indicators and put forward the corresponding risk prevention measures.At the same time,the full life cycle risk management should be strengthened,and the risk warning system should be set up.Fourthly,in addition to considering the comprehensive benefits of energy storage technologies,enterprises should also formulate the investment scheme that are compatible with their own development objectives.This paper studies the economic benefits,environmental benefits and investment risk of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and proposes the investment scheme of energy storage technologies under the single objective and multiple objectives portfolio.The innovation of this paper is reflected in the following aspects:First,a theoretical analysis framework for the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is constructed,which takes into account energy,economy,environment,technology and society dimensions.Secondly,an investment decision-making model of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side is constructed considering fuzziness and uncertainty.Thirdly,a unified standard is established to compare the economic benefits and environmental benefits of hydrogen production from water electrolysis by renewable energy and traditional energy storage technologies.Fourthly,an investment risk evaluation indicator system is constructed,which integrates economy,technology,environment,management,market and policy dimensions.The research results of this paper can provide reference for the investment decision-making of energy storage technologies on renewable energy generation side,and is conducive to promoting the smooth realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.