| The construction of a safe and efficient energy system dominated by new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic has become the future development trend of the power system.How to fully tap the flexible resources of the"source-network-load-energy storage" side to improve the consumption of new energy has become the key to supporting the low-carbon transformation of energy sources and electricity.Collaborative and optimized planning of transmission networks and energy storage in new energy enriched regions is conducive to improving system flexibility and achieving efficient and economic gathering and transmission of new energy.However,the uncertainty of new energy output has brought more risks to transmission line and energy storage collaborative planning.How to reasonably balance the economy and risk in the process of transmission line and energy storage planning has become the focus of attention in the construction of new power systems.In this paper,conditional value at risk as a risk quantification tool to characterize the risk cost of the transmission and energy storage planning scheme under uncertain conditions of new energy output and load demand.Aiming to minimize the weighted net investment and operating cost and risk cost of the system,and taking into account constraints such as system power flow constraints,conventional unit operation constraints,external power constraints,and energy storage system operation constraints,establish a coordinated and optimized planning model for transmission channels and energy storage in areas where new energy is enriched and exported.At the same time,in order to improve the accuracy of tail risk calculation of conditional value-at-risk,this paper establishes a scenario clustering model based on the requirement of conditional value-at-risk characteristics,the number of days in the scenario cycle is determined by the margin balance index,and the possibility of adjacent multi day margin balance coordination is fully considered to efficiently preserve extreme scenario characteristics.At the same time,the cluster effectiveness is determined by the cluster effectiveness judgment index to determine the number of clusters,and the K-means clustering effectiveness is determined to ensure clustering effectiveness.A planning scenario clustering generation model with dual parameter iterative determination of scenario cycle days and cluster numbers is established.Based on the multi day coordinated scenario method,the transmission line and energy storage stochastic planning model with conditional value at risk is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming model,which was convenient for model solving.A numerical example is analyzed based on the actual situation of a power system in a new energy gathering area in northern China.The simulation results of a numerical example show that considering the investment risks brought about by the uncertainty of new energy and load,carrying out coordinated and optimized planning for energy storage and transmission line in areas where new energy converges and transports is conducive to increasing the export of new energy,improving the consumption of new energy,and bringing environmental and economic benefits.The model can measure the impact of different risk aversion levels on transmission line and energy storage capacity matching schemes,and can achieve coupling quantitative regulation and analysis of transmission line and energy storage planning capacity and extreme scenario tail risk,which is conducive to improving the efficiency and economy of transmission line and energy storage coordination planning.To sum up,considering the risk characteristics of new energy enriched and exported power grids in a reasonable manner in planning is conducive to better balancing the economy and risk in the process of investment,and promoting the construction of green,low-carbon,clean,and efficient power grids. |
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