Research On Investment Risk Evaluation And Decision-making Model Of Renewable Energy

Energy is an overall and strategic issue that concerns China’s economic and social development,which is vital to economic development,and the improvement of people’s living standards.At present,China in facing a double bind referring to the low carbon economy and sustainable development of energy utilization,it will strengthen the development and utilization of wind,solar,biomass energy and other renewable energy in the future,in order to reduce the carbon emission level in power system and promote the process of energy revolution.Renewable energy resources are abundant in China,the development potential is huge,under the support of national policies,renewable energy power generation industry is developing rapidly in recent years.Due to renewable energy belongs to technology-intensive industry,thus it is in need of large investment and faces many uncertainty factors,so how to evaluate the uncertainty factors of renewable energy investment,and then make a scientific and rational investment decisions,is of great significance for the development of renewable energy.Against this background,The paper sets renewable energy as study subjects,using system dynamics theory,real option theory,and theory of grey clustering method of trigonometric function for the study of renewable energy investment risk,investment decision-making under different incentive mechanism and investment comprehensive benefits,which will provide investment decision model for investors and theoretical basis for government when making renewable energy incentive policy.1.Analyzing the current situation of renewable energy development in China.Describing risk assessment theory,investment decision-making theory,and incentive regulation theory used in this paper;analyzing the overall situation of China’s renewable energy respectively from the current development,investment situation as well as incentives three aspects.Based on the analysis of the situation,pointing out the problems that exist in the development of renewable energy in China.2.Using system dynamics theory for the study of renewable energy investment risk evaluation.Combining with the characteristics of renewable energy,to analyze and identify key risks which exist in the investment,such as technical risk,market risk and policy risk.Using system dynamics theory to analyze the inner links between the risk factors,building renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on the system dynamics,to evaluate renewable energy investment risk,analyze a simulation example and verify the practicability of the model.3.Introducing incentives factors and using the method of real option to study renewable energy investment decisions under different incentives.On the basis of the investment risk evaluation,combining with the theory of real option,this section will study renewable energy investing decisions.Because of the special nature of renewable energy sources,the profitability of most renewable energy generation investment largely depends on the government’s incentive policies.When making investment in renewable energy,Investors need to determine timing and capacity under different incentives.Introduceing incentive mechanism factors,this section respectively study the investment strategy under feed-in tariff incentive mechanism,auxiliary compensation condition,and certificate incentive mechanism.Based on real option,investment decision-making model is established;The scientificity and practicability of the model is validated by example analysis.4.Using the grey clustering method of trigonometric function to study the comprehensive benefit of renewable energy investment projects.To evaluate comprehensive benefits of renewable energy by introducing of grey clustering trigonometric function comprehensive evaluation method.Setting up renewable energy investments comprehensive benefits evaluation index system.Building a multi-level,multi-factor,objective and comprehensive evaluation index system respectively from the financial benefits of renewable energy investment,national economic and social benefits three aspects;by means of grey clustering trigonometric function comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate investment performance;selecting a wind power listed company’s data from 2009 to 2013 and giving a comprehensive evaluation of the investment benefit.It is vital for investors to carry out systematic investment analysis,which will improve the enthusiasm of investors and enhance the scientific and sustainable for renewable energy investment decision.5.Combining with the characteristics of renewable energy industry in China,this section study the development of renewable energy industry in different stages,and design different renewable energy incentive policies based on the characteristics of each stage.