| Increased maritime traffic volume improves the risk of traffic congestion and associated accidents on waterways with limited water area The vessel traffic’s volume,spatial-temporal distribution features,and compositions might vary significantly in different waterway segments,making it difficult to assess the waterway traffic capacity.To accurately evaluate the traffic capacity of different waterway segments,methods that consider the differences in the behavior characteristics of vessel traffic flow have become an important topic in marine traffic safety management research.In view of the above problems,this paper proposes a calculation method of waterway design traffic capacity based on a typical waterway traffic capacity model.The proposed method considers the differences in the characteristics of vessel traffic between waterway areas,and incorporated a general model of waterway traffic capacity based on the acceptable degree of risks.This model has important theoretical and practical significance for port and navigation related management departments to regulate,design and plan waterways more scientifically.The specific contents of this research are listed as follows:(1)Probability distribution-based evaluation of waterway traffic capacity for varying combinations of vessel types.This study employs the questionnaire survey method and minimum distance to collision(MDTC)theory to construct a dynamic ship domain model for calculating the ship domain for various ship types and sizes.The model also considers the randomness characteristics of influencing factors(weather,sea condition,etc.)and adopts the form of probability distribution to calculate the traffic capacity of waterway.(2)A cross-mixing waterway traffic capacity evaluation model for the simultaneous navigation of LNG,general cargo,and passengers ships.Because dangerous cargo ships like LNG vessels’ navigation in waterways are under traffic control,and the traffic flow near passenger terminals show peak and off-peak patterns,the study builds a waterway traffic capacity model based on GMap visualization technology and dynamic ship domain theory to quantify the synergistic relationship between ship navigation safety and efficiency under special ship navigation.(3)A generic waterway traffic capacity estimation method based on the degree of risk acceptability.Because ships carriers’ acceptance of risks is influenced by weather,sea conditions,and circadian rhythms,the study uses questionnaire survey method and linear regression analysis to build dynamic ship domain models of high,medium and low risk acceptability to establish traffic capacity models of waterways with different risk acceptability degrees.The study also combines easily accessible weather,daily routine,and vessel traffic flow feature data to enhance the generalizability and feasibility of the model.(4)An Automatic Identification System(AlS)-based intelligent monitoring and management platform for vessel traffic flow supervision.The study employs C#and GMap.NET open source components to develop the intelligent control platform with three core functions:AIS data input,waterway traffic capacity estimation,and vessel traffic flow control.The platform helps to solve typical digital transformation challenges in the maritime field,including incomplete digital technology chain,weak digital collaboration,insufficient digital decision support.The research helps to solve the synergistic optimization problem for the efficiency and safety of waterway traffic.The proposed intelligent waterway traffic monitoring and management platform makes a preliminary attempt to promote the digitalization transformation in the shipping industry. |
