| Household energy consumption,as an important part of terminal energy consumption,is also a primary economic sector contributing to China’s energy consumption increase.It mainly involves individual consumption behavior of households,and there is a special mechanism for the regulating effect of national energy policies on household energy consumption.Due to regional differences in economic development level and energy consumption habits,household energy consumption shows significant regional heterogeneity.Therefore,the research on influencing factors and trends of household energy consumption becomes more demanding and is of great practical significance for implementing differentiated energy policies and enhancing regional synergy of energy governance,which facilitates realizing the national goal of peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality.This dissertation takes Chinese urban household energy consumption as the research object,analyzes its developmental characteristics and spatial differences,quantifies the spatial effects of its influencing factors,and makes multi-scenario forecasts of household energy consumption trends to provide reference for optimizing regional household energy consumption structures and formulating energy conservation and emission reduction measures.This paper uses panel data on urban household energy consumption from 1998～2018 of China’s 30 provinces to investigates four scientific questions.Firstly,the regional characteristics of the relationship between energy prices and energy demand are studied.The mechanism of the relationship between energy prices and household energy consumption is investigated.Explore nonlinear characteristics of household energy consumption by applying Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model.Secondly,the elasticity effect of household energy consumption is studied.The induced effect and rebound effect of energy consumption behavior are measured by using the structural equation model.Then the impact of energy tiered price policy on household energy consumption is studied.The implementation effect of energy tiered price policy is evaluated by using regression discontinuity approach.Finally,the characteristics of changing trends household energy consumption are studied.Both linear and nonlinear forecasting methods are adopted to predict the total energy consumption of Chinese urban households in the future.This dissertation interprets the regional changes of Chinese urban household energy consumption from a dynamic perspective.The main researches are as follows.First,the complex nonlinear relationship between energy prices and energy consumption is explored.The study explores the effects of electricity sales prices and natural gas sales prices on urban household energy consumption from the perspectives of residents’ income and urbanization development levels,and provides a decision basis and empirical support for the formulation of regional energy price policies and household energy consumption policies.Take electricity consumption for an example.1)When regional differences in residents’income levels are considered,nationwide,eastern and central regions show a significant negative correlation between electricity sales prices and urban household electricity consumption as residents’disposable income levels increase,while western regions show a significant positive correlation between electricity sales prices and electricity consumption as residents’ disposable income levels increase.2)When considering the difference of urbanization development level,the national regional electricity sales price,urbanization development level and urban household electricity consumption all show a positive nonlinear relationship,with the urbanization development level in the western region promoting urban household electricity consumption the most,followed by the eastern region,and the urbanization development level in the central region promoting urban household electricity consumption the least.Second,a systematic analysis of the induced and rebound effects of residential electricity consumption is conducted.This dissertation establishes a structural equation model of household electricity consumption,residential electricity price,household income,electricity efficiency,degree of education,climate,precipitation and other factors from two aspects of household energy consumption and energy efficiency.Using 3SLS method for parameter estimation to measure the induced effect and rebound effect of household electricity consumption and electricity efficiency.1)It is found that residents are more sensitive to electricity price changes,and an increase in electricity price will reduce their electricity consumption and have no significant effect on improving electricity efficiency but improving electricity efficiency will help reduce electricity consumption.In the short term,rising household income will increase electricity consumption,but in the long term it will reduce electricity consumption.2)The more education is received,the better awareness of environmental protection will be formed and the less electricity will be consumed.3)Since both electricity and natural gas are monopolies in China,it is unlikely that the efficiency of electricity or natural gas can be increased through residential consumption.The government should force electricity producers or natural gas producers to increase energy efficiency through coercive policy.Third,implementation effects of residential energy tiered price policy are evaluated.Research findings are as follows.1)The implementation of the residential electricity tiered price policy has had a significant impact on electricity demand,and it is benefit to electricity saving.Residents in the west are more price sensitive and will pay more attention to their energy saving behaviors after the implementation of the tiered price.But people in the east have relatively higher income and are less sensitive to electricity price changes.2)The implementation of the nature gas tiered price policy has no significant impact on nature gas demand.The reason may be the fact that nature gas,as a necessity for residents,is characterized by rigid demand,and the current price range adjustment of the tiered nature gas is not significant,so the impact on residential nature gas demand is small.The increase in residents’ income reduces the price factor’s inhibiting effect on the residential nature gas demand,thus lacking incentives for resource-saving behavior.Forth,the changing trends of urban household energy consumption are predicted.Urban household energy consumption is a complicated subject influenced by various factors.Based on the identification of factors influencing it,this study applies linear and nonlinear techniques to forecast and analyze the total urban household energy consumption.Research findings are as follows.1)The nonlinear forecasting techniques are effective in accurately portraying the changes in urban household energy consumption.The important influencing factors of household energy consumption in the eastern region are mainly manifested in the level of urbanization development;the central region is mainly influenced by factors such as industrial structure;the western region is influenced by natural conditions and income levels.2)From the perspective of economic development,income level,in less economically developed regions,is still the main factor limiting the change of urban household energy consumption.Different developing patterns and processes of urbanization will be gradually reflected in changes in the urban household energy consumption structure and its total consumption,which should also be seriously considered in terms of household energy policy formulation. |
PDF Full Text Request