| The consumption of household energy has been increasing year by year,and it has become the second largest energy consumption sector in China after industrial energy.In addition,due to the impact of climate change,the global temperature has shown a trend of gradual increase in recent years.This paper studies the relationship between temperature and household energy consumption in Dalian.Firstly,the annual variation of household energy consumption structure and temperature in Dalian is analyzed statistically.Through the stepwise regression method,the significance analysis of the factors that may affect the household energy consumption in Dalian is carried out.According to the analysis,among the seven factors including population,economy and temperature,the per capita GDP(referring to the permanent resident population)has a significant impact on the household energy consumption in Dalian.However,due to the hysteresis of the effect of temperature,the effect of temperature factor is not significant.Secondly,an autoregressive distributed lag model(ARDL)is established to analyze the long-term effects of annual average temperature and per capita GDP on household energy consumption in Dalian.The results show that both of them have a long-term co-integration relationship with household energy consumption.For every 1 degree Celsius increase in the annual average temperature in Dalian,the household energy consumption will increase by156,500 tons of standard coal.For every 10,000 yuan increase in per capita GDP,household energy consumption will increase by 120,700 tons of standard coal.Finally,this paper adopts Had GEM2-ES and Miroc-ESM-Chem temperature prediction models of CMIP5 to forecast the temperature and household energy consumption changes in Dalian under three climate models.The results show that under the RCP8.5 climate model,the maximum annual average temperature in Dalian will rise by 7.69℃ at the end of this century,and the increase of household energy consumption in Dalian will exceed 1 million tons of standard coal in 2099.Under the RCP4.5 climate model,the temperature rise rate of Dalian in the second half of the 21 st century will reach 0.34℃/10 a,and the household energy consumption demand will increase by 272,300 tons of standard coal due to the temperature.However,under the RCP2.6 climate model,the temperature rise of Dalian in this century is controlled at 1.21℃,which is in line with the expectation of IPCC for controlling temperature rise.Meanwhile,the household energy consumption is less affected by temperature. |
