Analysis Of Factors Affecting Energy Consumption In Indonesia And Demand Forecasting

Indonesia is located at the intersection of the Pacific Ocean and the Indonesian Ocean,Asia and Oceania.It is an important hub and strategic fulcrum for the construction of the Maritime Silk Road.China's "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" co-construction initiative won the docking of Indonesia's "global maritime support point" strategy,and promoted the two sides to achieve initial results in economic and trade cooperation,road connectivity,industrial cooperation and cultural exchanges.At the same time,Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world,after China,Indonesia and the United States.In recent years,the Indonesian economy has maintained a mediumto-high-speed growth,which has become an important engine for stimulating regional economic growth.The rapid economic growth has led to the growth of energy consumption,and Indonesia's future energy demand has become the focus of global attention.This paper studies the factors affecting Indonesia's future energy demand and systematically studies the future energy demand in Indonesia.At the same time,accurate pre-judgment of Indonesia's future energy demand can provide reference for China's adjustment of energy strategy.In 2017,Indonesia's total primary energy consumption was 175 million tons of oil equivalent,accounting for 28.74% of the total energy consumption of the six ASEAN countries,ranking first in Southeast Asia.In 2017,Indonesia's per capita primary energy consumption was 0.67 tons of oil equivalent,less than 1/10 of the US and 1/3 of China's,far lower than the world's per capita primary energy consumption of 1.79 tons of oil equivalent.In general,Indonesia has a large total energy consumption and a low per capita level.The terminal energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the industrial,transportation and civilian sectors.Indonesia's energy consumption structure is similar to and different from that of China.Similarly,fossil energy is high in the primary energy consumption structure.The difference is that China's renewable energy accounts for a relatively high proportion,Indonesia's renewable energy accounts for a relatively low proportion,and Indonesia.There is no nuclear energy in the energy consumption structure.This paper takes Indonesia's energy demand as the main research object,and analyzes the various factors affecting Indonesia's energy consumption based on the research status of predecessors.Finally,based on the actual situation in Indonesia,energy consumption is expressed by primary energy consumption(EN).Variables,including gross domestic product(GDP)and industrial added value(IND)as dependent variables into the VAR model,cointegration analysis shows that the impact of industrial added value on primary energy consumption is greater than the primary energy consumption of primary energy consumption.The impact is great.In the context of benchmark development,Indonesia's primary energy consumption has grown steadily.In 2020,2025 and 2030,Indonesia's primary energy consumption growth rate was 3.0%,3.5%,4.0%,and consumption was 1.86,2.19 and 264 million tons of oil equivalent,respectively.Per capita consumption is 0.69,0.78,and 0.90 tons of oil equivalent.Indonesia's energy resource consumption is gradually entering a period of rapid rise,which will inevitably affect its resource exports.China should actively carry out capacity cooperation with Indonesia and share its development dividend.Combined with this study,the following suggestions are given.Moderate participation in Indonesia's economic construction,sharing its development dividends;strengthening cooperation and penetration in the resource industry;promoting China and Indonesia's cooperation in international oil pricing power and new energy industries.