Measurement And Analysis Of Carbon Emissions In China’s Iron And Steel Industry Based On Energy-material-economy Nexus

As an important sector which is hard to abate carbon emissions with high energy consumption,the low-carbon transition of the iron and steel industry is crucial for China to achieve its carbon peal and carbon neutral goals.In order to effectively promote the low-carbon transition of the iron and steel industry,it is vital to pay high attention to the impact of demand side factors,besides improving technical performance in traditional production processes.It requires researchers not only to have a detailed measurement of the material utilization,energy consumption,and carbon emissions in the steel production system,but also to have a clear understanding of t he correlation between steel consumption and economic development.Therefore,it is necessary to establish measuring methods and models to quantitatively analyze carbon emissions in the iron and steel industry coupling multi-level factors such as energy,m aterials,and economy.This method can help researchers to comprehensively evaluate the impact of different measures from the production side to the demand side on the low-carbon development of the iron and steel industry.In order to systematically measure and analyze carbon emissions in the iron and steel industry from the perspective of energy-material-economy nexus,this study firstly developed a method for tracing the steel use from material flows in the production system to material footprints in the consumption system.The method achieved a consistent measurement of steel flows from production to consumption,and clarified the correlation between steel demand and economic development.Secondly,by introducing the analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions,a calculation formula for carbon emissions in the steel industry with energy-material-economy nexus was established.Then the influencing factors leading to the historical changes of carbon emissions in China’s steel industry were analyzed.Thirdly,based on the mathematical model,a carbon emission accounting model for China’s steel industry was established.Scenario analysis has been conducted on different emission reduction measures from the steel production side to the demand side,and the impact of various measures has been comprehensively evaluated.Finally,relevant policy recommenda tions were provided from both production and demand sides for the low-carbon transition of China’s iron and steel industry.The results indicate that,currently,investment drove 75.1% of China ’s steel consumption,in which 58.6% are construction industry represented by the building and infrastructure.Therefore,transforming the economic development model,optimizing the investment structure,shifting the focus of capital investment from traditional construction industries to advanced manufacturing and improving the material efficiency of the construction and manufacturing industries are crucial to the low-carbon transition of China’s iron and steel industry.From the historical perspective,demand side factors have a greater impact and contribution on carbon emissions of China’s steel industry in various historical periods than supply side factors,the demand side should receive more attention by decision makers.In the future,the comprehensive utilization of various emission reduction measures from both production and demand sides can continuously reduce carbon emissions of the iron and steel industr y from now to near zero by 2060.Among them,the transformation of process structure has the greatest contribution to the cumulative emission reduction,accounting for 36%of total reduction.Followed by the improvement of material efficiency and the adjustment of demand structure,which account for 17% and 15% of total reduction respectively.The government and industry should strengthen the construction of short process production capacity from now on,break the path lock,and reduce short process production costs through scale effect s as soon as possible.On this basis,in the short term,there is still room for emission reduction in the improvement of technical efficiency within the traditional production route,but in the mid-long term,it turns to rely on the contribution of demand reduction measures and breakthrough smelting and negative carbon technolog ies.