Evaluation Of Energy Conservation Cost And Potential Of Technologies In Iron And Steel Industry

In the context of global climate crisis and China’s promotion of carbon peak carbon neutralization process,energy saving and emission reduction of industrial industries,especially energy-intensive industries,has become the meaning of sustainable development.As a typical energy-consuming industry,the iron and steel industry is the main battlefield of industrial green development,and has been a key industry for the state to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.Energy conservation and emission reduction is an effective way for the green and low-carbon transformation development of the steel industry,and technology is the key to improving energy efficiency,reducing carbon emissions and reducing air pollution in the steel industry.The comprehensive evaluation of technology energy saving potential and cost is beneficial to clarify the cost and benefit of technology and provide valuable suggestions for the further promotion of technology.Based on 28 technologies in the iron and steel industry,this paper constructs an energy saving and emission reduction potential analysis model and an energy saving cost evaluation model for the iron and steel industry.The Yangtze River Delta region with relatively developed economy and broad application prospect of energy saving technologies is selected for a case study.With 2020 as the base year and 2030 as the target year,the energy saving potential of related technologies and the unit energy saving cost of technologies are calculated.The energy saving supply curve is drawn based on energy saving potential and unit energy saving cost of technology for comprehensive evaluation of each technology.The original energy saving supply curve is expanded by incorporating the synergy benefit into the cost calculation of technology energy saving,and the positive externalities of technology are internalized into the technology cost.Finally,single factor sensitivity analysis and system uncertainty analysis were carried out to further expand the implications and accuracy of the results.The evaluation results show that:（1）The 28 selected technologies in the steel industry are expected to save 875.74PJ of energy in 2030,which is about 34%of the total energy consumption of the steel industry in the Yangtze River Delta in 2020.（2）Through the calculation and comparison of energy saving costs considering different income items,it can be found that the energy saving cost of technology is reduced to a low level when the energy saving income,CO₂ emission reduction synergies and SO₂,NO_x and PM₁₀ emission reduction synergies are comprehensively considered.The three technologies with the lowest cost are dry technology of vacuum degassing cycle process of molten steel,thick layer sintering technology and preventive maintenance technology.After taking into account the benefits of energy saving and synergies,the three technologies with the lowest cost are rotary seal ring cooler,blast furnace waste plastic injection technology and pollution reduction folding filter cylinder energy saving technology.Therefore,in technology evaluation and decision making,comprehensive consideration of synergistic benefits is conducive to internalizing externalities and reducing technology costs.（3）Under the basic scenario（BAU）,production structure change scenario（PAS）,technological progress scenario（TPS）and comprehensive strengthening scenario（CSS）,the total energy consumption of the steel industry in the Yangtze River Delta region is 2 603.89,2 244.35,2 239.02 and 1 875.65 PJ,respectively.In the CSS scenario,the energy saving potential brought by technology popularization accounts for about 20%of the total energy consumption in the CSS scenario,the energy saving potential brought by the electric furnace steel ratio rising from 10%to 30%accounts for about 19%of the total energy consumption in the CSS scenario,and the energy saving potential brought by the reduction of crude steel production accounts for about 16%of the total energy consumption in the CSS scenario.The results of uncertainty analysis show that:（1）The discount rate and the price of greenhouse gases or pollutants have an impact on the energy-saving cost of technology.The higher the discount rate,the higher the cost of capital,the higher the energy-saving cost of technology;the price of greenhouse gases or pollutants will increase the benefits of technology energy saving and emission reduction,thus reducing the cost of technology energy saving.（2）The energy saving potential of the technology will fluctuate under the condition of common changes of many factors.After Monte Carlo simulation,the energy saving of 28 technologies is 60%certain in the range of812.34-945.06PJ.In order to promote energy saving and emission reduction in the iron and steel industry,there are some suggestions.First,developing the transformation finance in the future to reduce the capital cost of the industry;Second,promoting the industry to be incorporated in the national carbon trading market so as to concentrate limited resources on advantageous enterprises;Third,performing overall planning of benefits and costs of technology.Precise measures and policies are effective for the promotion and popularization of key technologies in the steel industry.