Study On The Optimization Of The Industrial Structure And Spatial Layout Of The Great Bend Of The Yellow River Under The Goal Of Carbon Peaking

To effectively address the negative effects of global warming,China has stated plans to enhance its planned nationally decided contributions and aspire to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.According to experience,the three key ways to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality aim to optimize the industrial structure,adapt the energy structure,and upgrade the technological level.The Great Bend of the Yellow River is an important energy resource-rich area in China.The adjustment of the energy pattern dominated by coal is relatively small,and the energy utilization rate is lower than the national average.Optimizing the industrial structure has become the key to curbing the growth of carbon emissions and achieving high-quality economic and social development.On the other hand,the energy-based industry accounts for a relatively high proportion in the Great Bend of the Yellow River,and the unreasonable industrial spatial layout is also the main reason why the growth rate of carbon emissions has always remained at a high level.Thus,the way to achieve carbon reduction and high-quality economic development by optimizing the industrial structure and spatial layout under the goal of carbon peaking has become an important theoretical and practical problem that needs to be solved urgently in the Great Bend of the Yellow River.Under the purpose of carbon peaking,the relevant literature and basic theory at home and abroad is sorted out,and the basic category of research is outlined in this work.On this basis,firstly,the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial structure is analyzed theoretically and empirically by using environmental effect decomposition model and PVAR model;Secondly,the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method are adopted to predict the carbon peaking in the Great Bend of the Yellow River,the LSTM model is used to predict the carbon emissions of key industries,and the emission reduction potential of key industries is evaluated;Thirdly,a multi-objective industrial structure optimization model under the carbon peaking goal is constructed based on the predicted data,and the carbon emissions and economic growth of each province and region under different objectives are compared and analyzed to find the optimal objective and then obtain the optimization direction of the industrial structure of the Great Bend of the Yellow River in 2030;Finally,from the perspective of regional industrial transfer,the static agglomeration index,dynamic agglomeration index,industrial gradient coefficient and low carbon competitiveness index are used to analyze the industrial agglomeration,industry competition and low carbon competitiveness,and then the idea of classifying and adjusting the industrial spatial layout of each province and region is proposed.Based on the research findings,countermeasures and recommendations for the Great Bend of the Yellow River to achieve carbon peaking as soon as feasible are proposed from the standpoint of optimizing the industrial structure and spatial layout.According to the research findings,(1)Theoretically speaking,when technological progress remains unchanged,economic growth and industrial structure adjustment will have an impact on carbon emissions and carbon peaking.The impact of industrial structure effect on carbon emissions shows a trend of rising first and then declining.As a result,the carbon emission curve has an inverted "U" form.Carbon emissions eventually peak as the combination of structural and technological effects diminishes to equal the scale effect.Empirically speaking,the upgrading of the industrial structure and the improvement of the ecological level of the industrial structure will curb carbon emissions,while the relationship between the level of industrial structure rationalization and carbon emissions is not significant.(2)The carbon emission prediction results show that under the extensive development scenario and the benchmark development scenario,the carbon emissions of each province and region cannot reach a peak by 2030.Under the low carbon development scenario,Shaanxi Province will achieve the goal of carbon peaking in 2025,with a peak of 281,875,400 tons,and no peak in other provinces and regions.By industry,the peak value of the industrial and electric power industry will not appear before2030,and the peak value of carbon emissions of the chemical industry and steel industry in some provinces and regions appears in the predictive period.The carbon peaking of the electric power industry directly affects the industrial carbon peaking and then the overall peaking.In terms of emission reduction potential,the power industry has the largest emission reduction potential,while the chemical industry and steel industry have low emission reduction potential.(3)The results of industrial structure optimization show that the goal of maximizing economic growth is to achieve the "win-win" situation of carbon reduction and high-quality development in all provinces and regions.In order to maximize economic growth,the average yearly GDP growth rates in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,and Ningxia for the prediction period are 6.60%,6.77%,6.98%,and 6.65%,respectively.By 2030,carbon emission intensity will be reduced by 49.92%,35.45%,50.16%,and 35.44%,respectively,as compared to 2017.As indicated by the comparison results of an industrial structure optimization,in 2030,the proportion of the primary industry in each province and region will change slightly,the proportion of the tertiary industry will increase significantly,and the proportion of the secondary industry will decline significantly,especially in chemical product manufacturing,power,heat production and supply industries,metal smelting and rolling processing industries,petroleum,coking products,nuclear fuel processing industries,and other high carbon industries.(4)The empirical studies of industrial spatial layout reveal that the "agglomeration" industrial geographical pattern is spread in all types of factor-intensive businesses,but the number is limited.The coal mining and dressing sector remains an important industry in the foreseeable layout of the Yellow River’s Great Bend.The "potential" industrial spatial layout is concentrated in labor-intensive industries,capital-intensive industries,and technology-intensive industries,which can be further explored by each province and region.The "scale" industrial spatial layout is distributed in resource-intensive and capital-intensive industries.During the layout process,the "dual control" of total carbon emissions and intensity should be strengthened.The marginal contribution of this paper is as follows:(1)In theoretical terms,the impact of scale effect and structure effect on carbon emissions and carbon peaking is obtained,and in empirical terms,clarified the dynamic relationship between industrial structure optimization and carbon emissions.(2)The carbon peaking of all provinces and regions and key industries in the Great Bend of the Yellow River is predicted,and the industrial structure optimization plan for 2030 with highest economic benefits under the goal of carbon peaking is found.(3)The theoretical framework of industrial spatial layout is enriched,and the adjustment direction of industrial spatial layout in the Great Bend of the Yellow River under the goal of carbon peaking is revealed.(4)Under the goal of carbon peaking,"the way to adjust" and "the way to distribute" of an industrial structure are included in the unified research framework,and the path and mechanism to achieve carbon reduction through optimization of industrial structure and spatial layout are analyzed.