| With the development of economy and the pubilc awareness of environmental protection, it is difficult to develop at the expense of pollution. Building "resource-saving and environment-friendly" society is no longer a political issue, and gradually become a common concept of development. The government of china has put forward Chinese carbon emission reduction commitments as a responsible action for global warming. The achieve of Carbon emission reduction targets not only need to consider the macroeconomic policy factors, but also need to focus on structural emission reduction. Structural emission reduction not only need to consider the adjustment of industrial structure, but also need to consider the characteristics of Chinese unbalanced regional development.In other words, Chinese structural emission reduction needs to take these factors into account,such as industrial layout, regional industrial structure,regional economic development and regional environmental protection policies.By clarifying the relevant concepts of region, industry and so on,this dissertation defines the concept of industrial transfer, industrial structure and industrial layout. One of the foundations of this dissertation is to recognize the differences in regional resource endowments and the interregional transfer of industrial resources. Another research foundation of this disertation is that the analysis of the characteristics of regional industrial transfer will help China to achieve sustainable development between environmental protection and economic growth.The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the impact of industrial structure and industrial layout on the carbon emissions. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, this dissertation tries to give some suggestions on how to coordinate regional industrial transfer, improve the regional industrial structure and optimize the industrial structure from the perspective of structural carbon emission reduction.Firstly, this dissertation defines the concept of low carbon economy on the basis of the existing literature. It defines the low-carbon economy as a development model, which is to achieve economic and social health and sustainable development by strictly controlling carbon emissions and promoting carbon absorption. It has analyzed the relationship between environment protection and economic growth, focusing on the impact of industrial factors on Chinese carbon emission characteristics. Based on the analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve and the tunneling through effect, this dissertation illustrates the influence of industrial transfer, industrial structure and industrial layout on carbon emissions.Secondly, this disertation calculates various energy carbon emission coefficient, and analyze the driving factors of carbon emission growth on the basis of Kaya identity by using Log mean Divisia Index (LMDI)decomposition technology. It shows a clear obvious regional imbalance in China. whether the total carbon emissions or the growth rate of the carbon emissions, the eastern and western regions are greater than the national average volatility. The eastern and western regions are the main cause of the change of national carbon emissions, because these two regions account for a larger proportion of the country’s carbon emissions.Using Log mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition technology, this dissertation decomposes the influencing factors of carbon emission growth into six factors, including the economic aggregate scale factor,regional economic location factor, regional industrial structure factor,secondary industry energy consumption intensity factor, regional energy consumption structure factor and energy carbon emission coefficient factors. It is considered that there are three factors that have a positive impact on the carbon emission growth, which include economic aggregate size, regional economic location and regional industrial structure. While the factors that includ second industry energy consumption intensity factor and regional energy consumption structural factor, have a negative impact on the carbon emissions growth.Thirdly, it focuses on the impact of industry factors on carbon emissions growth based on the Kaya identity LMDI decomposition. This dissertation discusses the transfer trend of high carbon industry in 1995-2014, and anlysis the influence of industrial structure and industrial layout on carbon emissions, based on the analysis of the cross influence of regional economic location factor and industrial structure factor. It argues that the impact of industrial layout and industrial structure factors on carbon emissions is significantly different. From the time series data,the adjustment of industrial structure has an inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emissions, while the industrial layout shows a positive effect on the growth of carbon emissions. There are obvious regional differences in the regional industrial structure. The transfer of high carbon industry has obvious trend from east to west. There are also some industrial transfer in the region, such as the eastern part of Shanghai,Zhejiang, Guangdong. The effect of regional economic location and industrial structure on carbon emission growth is anlayzed by βconvergence theory. These two factors have an inhibitory effect on carbon growth. The convergence trend of the factors coefficient shows that the structural emission reduction policy will benefit to achieve the emission reduction targets if the two factors are concerned.Fourthly, this dissertation constructs the environmental Kuznets curve equation model and the environmental Kuznets time trend difference equation model, and use the panel data to analyze the equation.The results show that the coefficients of the industrial structure (SK), the second industry energy consumption intensity (SI) and the energy consumption structure (EI) are significant in the EKC equation model and the EKC time trend difference equation model. These three factors have a significant positive impact on per capita carbon emissions. When these three factors are optimized (reduced), the level of per capita carbon emissions can be significantly reduced. While the coefficients of the industrial distribution (TL), the coefficient of industrial distribution and industrial structure interaction (TL*lnSK), technological progress (lnIP)and environmental regulation intensity (InCIP) are poor. The lnIP coefficient is not significant, indicating that the technological progress is complex. That is to say technological progress not only improve the combustion efficiency but also stimulate energy consumption. The explanation of TL coefficient is that the government has paid more attention on the output effect of industrial distribution and igore the problems of environment. The coefficients of TL*lnSK and InCIP are not significant, indicating that there is a need for further analysis of the relationship between industrial transfer, industrial structure, industrial layout and carbon emissions.Fifthly, this dissertation analyzes the impact of industrial transfer,industrial structure and industrial layout on carbon emissions by analyzing the concept of tunneling through effect. It argues that the overall performance of carbon emissions in the eastern region is superior to that of other regions and is a positive tunneling through effect, while central and western regions are underperforming. Industrial transfer,especially high-carbon emission industry transfer, has a significant impact on carbon emissions in the central and western regions, and these regions have a negative tunneling effect. The analysis conclusion is that the structural carbon emission reduction not only should pay attention to the adjustment of industrial structure, but also should concern on the carbon emissions efficiency of the industrial distribution which will be effected by the industrial transfer. And then, this dissertaiton puts forward some policy suggestions based on industrial transfer, regional industrial structure and overall industrial layout.Finally, this dissertaiton summarizes the research conclusions,including policy recommendations and innovations. And it puts forward the research prospect of the effects of technology spillover and urbanization on carbon emission.The policy suggestions in this dissertation focus on industrial transfer, industrial structure adjustment, industrial distribution carbon emissions optimization. It argues that the central government should scientifically assess the environmental impact of the industrial layout and maintain a balance between economic development and carbon emissions growth. Regional governments should optimize the regional industrial structure, support the development of low-carbon industries which includs modern service industry, information technology industry, and so on. Regional government should get rid of the dependence of regional economic development on high-carbon industry output, should focus on the development of low-carbon industry and creates a new economic growth point for regional economies. The central government should set up an effective mechanism to rationalize the national and regional energy consumption structure, which will enable energy-saving technology to effectively cross-domain applications and exchanges. And regional government should rationally formulate regional environmental regulation policies, and formulate environment-friendly regional development stratgy according to the conditions of regional natural resource. It is suggested that a unified carbon emissions trading market should be established as soon as possible, which will ensure the balance between regional carbon emission responsibility and regonal carbon emission obligations, and ensure the fair realization of regional carbon emission reduction targets.There are three innovations in this dissertation. The first innovation of this dissertation is that it analyzes the transfer trend of high carbon industry by the cross effects of carbon emission growth drivers. The second innovation is that the P convergence theory is applied to analyze the influence of industrial distribution and industrial structure on carbon emission growth. The third innovation is that the tunneling effect is verified by the qualitative and quantitative methods. |
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