| Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal,as the largest carbon emission department,the power industry has become the main force of carbon emission reduction.However,China’s current high-carbon power system seriously hinders the process of carbon goal,and there is an urgent need for low-carbon transition.Due to the high proportion of thermal power in the power structure,the carbon footprint of Shandong power industry is much higher than the national level,therefore,its low-carbon transition is more important.But the low-carbon transformation of the power system will face many challenges,taking arduous efforts.Exploring the optimal low-carbon transformation path of the power system is one of the issues of industry consensus.The energy system model can provide scientific support for different levels of subjects such as national or industry participants in making decisions such as energy strategic planning,which is authoritative and forward-looking.Therefore,it is necessary to build an energy system model suitable for the power system,which can be used to study how the current high-carbon power system transforms into a low-carbon system in the long-term.It is of great significance for the power industry to achieve the healthy and sustainable development of the industry while achieving the emission reduction target.In view of this,based on the system theory and optimization theory,this thesis uses the method of model analysis to seek the optimal path of the current high-carbon power system moving to low-carbon,and analyzes the impact of the transformation.According to this research idea,this thesis takes Shandong power system as the object.The main research contents and achievements are as shown below.(1)An analysis of the general situation of Shandong power system from four aspects: electricity demand,supply,installed capacity and emission.And then,the research boundary of power system is defined from vertical and horizontal angles.This thesis analyzes the supply capacity of each energy resource,and characteristics of existing and potential power technologies are also analyzed in detail.These works provide a realistic basis for power system modeling.(2)Based on OSeMOSYS model,and combined with the operation characteristics of power system,the research framework of long-term power system optimization model is determined.On the basis of considering system details in existing modeling studies,this thesis incorporates the technical working conditions,short-term variability,carbon capture characteristics,resource utilization,and implied emissions into power system modeling research.And then,these new detailed features are modeled in OSeMOSYS model by defining the multi-mode operation of the technology,adding dummy variables,etc.Therefore,an optimization model suitable for long-term power system is constructed,and the complex practical characteristics can be abstracted by mathematical formulas.This model considers the supply capacity of resources,the utilization of each technology and relevant characteristics in the power system.On the premise of meeting the power demand and the low-carbon requirements of the power industry,and guided by the goal of minimizing the total cost of the system,the model studies how to utilize each resource,how to expand the capacity of each technology,the power contribution of technologies and short-term dispatching operation in the power system in the future long term.And describe how the power system uses resources.This model is universal and reproducible,and can provide method and tool support for the discussion of the optimal path of low-carbon transition of power system.(3)According to the characteristics of Shandong power system and requirements for the model,this thesis establishes a complete reference energy system,and collects relevant parameters.According to the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal and relevant planning,three low-carbon scenarios considering non fossil energy utilization and carbon goals are set.By using the model established,this thesis discusses the optimal path of low-carbon transition of Shandong power system under three scenarios,and compares them.The findings show that: The deeper the emissions reduction,the higher the total installed capacity of the system,the total installed capacity of the three scenarios in 2060 is 3 times,3.42 times,and 3.58 times the current system,respectively,mainly due to the increase of wind power and solar photovoltaic.Coal power is gradually compressed but not completely withdrawn,and CCS is required under the emission reduction scenario.The prospect of coal-biomass co-firing power generation is broad,and deep emission reduction can be achieved with CCS.The energy storage in emission reduction scenario is rapid.The demand for foreign power into Shandong continues to grow.In the deeper emission reduction scenario,more power loss will be caused by energy storage,transmission and power abandonment.Carbon emission will decline rapidly around 2030 after about a ten-year platform period.The emission peaks of three scenarios are in 2029(520 million tons),2024(512 million tons)and 2024(505million tons)respectively.(4)Based on the discussion of optimal paths,the impact of low-carbon transition on technology positioning,economy and resource utilization are analyzed.The results show that: The orientation of flexible power is gradually transformed into functional units providing adjustment assistance.The deeper the low-carbon path,the higher the investment cost,low-carbon transition needs additional costs,but it will bring benefits of continuous decline in power supply costs in the long run.The total energy consumption of power system will increase first and then decrease.The water consumption will decrease rapidly after a short platform period.The demand for land of power system will rise steadily.Finally,this thesis puts forward recommendations from the installation layout of power technologies,market improvement,the layout of resource utilization and other aspects to ensure the low-carbon power transition. |
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