Research On Jiangsu Low Carbon Power Planning And Transition Path Based On EPLANopt Model

Wind power and solar photovoltaic are the most competitive power generation types in renewable energy at present.Output variability,unpredictability and other characteristics enhance the supply and demand instability of the power system.The increase of the proportion of variable renewable energy requires the power system to further improve its flexible operation ability.In the transition of power system,how to comprehensively consider the high proportion of renewable energy and flexible resource allocation has become the focus of current low-carbon power planning.In this paper,the EPLANopt model is used to simulate the technology and optimize the strategy of Jiangsu power system,including the EnergyPLAN model and multi-objective optimization.Firstly,the EnergyPLAN model is constructed from the perspective of power system,heating system,industrial fuel system,transportation system and renewable energy system.The reliability of the model is tested and analyzed from the aspects of monthly power demand,power production and primary energy consumption in Jiangsu Province.The key factors,installation structure of variable renewable energy?including wind power and solar photovoltaic?,and new installation of CHP and coal consumption reduction replacement are carried out in sensitivity analysis.Combined with the input parameters of Jiangsu Province's policy and policy setting model,two possible transition path scenarios of Jiangsu Province's power system in the future are constructed from the perspectives of power and heat demand,installation structure,coal substitution rate,transmission capacity and flexible resource allocation:reference scenario is based on the existing energy policy and conservative prediction of variable renewable energy installation;high proportion scenario is more ambitious in energy policies in terms of high clean energy share,reduced coal consumption substitution,flexible resource allocation and variable renewable energy utilization.Under two scenarios of transition path,the generation structure,hourly scheduling and energy system cost of Jiangsu Province in 2030 and 2050 are simulated.According to the COMP method of marginal critical excess power production and marginal primary energy supply,the optimal access ratio of wind power and solar photovoltaic in power system of Jiangsu Province in 2050 in the reference scenario is calculated;the power system of Jiangsu Province in 2050 is further optimized by NSGA-II evolutionary algorithm,Three optimization paths in the Pareto frontier is obtained and P1?high cost,low emission?to P3?low cost,high emission?are described in detail,and compared with the two benchmark cases from the perspective of installed structure,power generation structure,CO₂ emissions and so on.The results show that:?1?Increase of the installed capacity of renewable energy,new installation of CHP and the substitution of coal fuel have a significant inhibitory effect on CO₂ emissions.At the same time,the system cost will be increased,while the increase of the installed capacity of solar photovoltaic brings more system cost than that of wind power,and the cost of natural gas replacing coal fuel increases obviously.?2?Under the two transition paths,the proportion of onshore wind power,offshore wind power,solar photovoltaic power and biomass energy in the high proportion scenario is higher than that in the reference scenario.?3?Thermal power?including natural gas?in Jiangsu Province's power system is still the main power generation in 2030 and the proportion of hydropower is the smallest.The power generation structure is multipolar in 2050,and the proportion of thermal power?including natural gas?in the high proportion scenario is close to 50%.Offshore wind power increased significantly.?4?The main component of energy system cost is variable cost.The proportion of large power plants and solar photovoltaic in total investment cost and annual investment cost in 2030 is relatively large,followed by onshore wind power and offshore wind power,and the main source of fixed operation and maintenance cost is large-scale traditional power plants.The variable renewable energy cost accounts for more than 70%of total investment cost and annual investment cost in 2050,and in the fixed operation cost,onshore wind power and offshore wind power account for a relatively high proportion,followed by solar photovoltaic.?5?In the 2050 reference scenario,the optimal access proportion of variable renewable energy in Jiangsu power system is about 20%;the reference scenario and high-proportion scenario points are far away from the Pareto front,only in their feasible solution domain.The transition strategy represented by P2and P3 points can better achieve the goal of reducing system cost,while P1,P2 and P3points can achieve the goal of lower carbon emission.In Pareto optimal solution concentration,the P1-P3 point strategy mainly shows the dynamic changes of thermal power,installed capacity of variable renewable energy,external electricity,demand-side response and energy storage demand.The thesis includes 81 figures,17 tables,102 references.