| The realization of the "dual-carbon" goals of achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality is a necessary requirement for sustainable development of human society.The proposal of the "dual-carbon" goals in China is a theoretical continuation of the concept of Marxist harmony between humans and nature and the deepening of the green development ideology.It is not only beneficial for improving the ecological environment and reshaping the industrial structure,but also for promoting high-quality economic development.Regarding the path chosen by China to achieve the "dual-carbon" goals,considering that the increase in "carbon sink" capacity is limited by technical costs and the limited resources of green land,the key to achieving the "dual-carbon" goals currently lies in reducing "carbon sources".The core of reducing "carbon sources" is to accelerate energy transition,which is the main battlefield for achieving the "dual-carbon" goals.However,at the same time,we should also deeply recognize that energy transition is a long-term and complex system engineering.Gradual energy transition will inevitably cause pain to economic and social development,especially the impact on economic growth cannot be underestimated.Therefore,one of the important issues facing China at present is to clarify the impact of energy transition on carbon emissions and economic growth under the premise that the "dual-carbon" goal tasks have been clearly defined,and further examine how to achieve the dual goals of reducing carbon emissions and stabilizing economic growth through energy transition.Based on the above research objectives,this dissertation focuses on the impact of energy transformation on carbon emission intensity and conducts a comprehensive study from multiple aspects.The dissertation consists of eight chapters in total.The first two chapters serve as the foundation of the dissertation,including the introduction,theoretical background,and literature review.These chapters mainly summarize and compile literature related to the topics of "energy transformation" and "carbon emission intensity." Chapter 3 analyzes the mechanism of the impact of China’s energy transformation on carbon emission intensity.This chapter is the main argument of the paper,conducting a panoramic study of China’s energy transformation,and in-depth analysis of the potential impact of energy transformation on carbon emission intensity,as well as a theoretical evaluation of relevant policy effects.Chapter 4 measures and evaluates the energy transformation and carbon emission intensity of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in Chinese mainland,except for Tibet,using the Dagum-Gini index and kernel function method.This chapter provides a comprehensive analysis of the regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of energy transformation and carbon emission intensity,further clarifying the current development status of China’s energy transformation and carbon emission intensity.Chapter 5 examines the empirical effect of energy transformation on carbon emission intensity and further explores the regulatory effect of industrial structure upgrading on the impact of energy transformation on carbon emission intensity.Chapter 6 analyzes how to promote carbon emission intensity under the constraint of the "dual carbon" target and explores the policy effects using the application of ethanol gasoline and the "coal to gas and electricity" policy as examples.Chapters7 and 8 combine the experience and reference of energy transformation with China’s actual situation and propose the main paths of energy transformation under the "dual-carbon" target in China.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis in this dissertation,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)Overall,China’s energy transition was in an accelerating stage during the sample period,but there were significant regional differences.The proportion of renewable energy consumption in the central and western regions showed a significant upward trend,while the eastern region remained relatively stable.The difference between regions is expanding.The overall carbon emission intensity was in an upward trend during the sample period,indicating that China’s current energy utilization efficiency is not high and there are also regional differences,but the difference is narrowing.(2)Energy transition has a significant negative impact on reducing carbon emission intensity,particularly in the central and western regions.At the same time,upgrading the industrial structure also has a significant negative impact on carbon emission intensity,indicating that upgrading the industrial structure can also reduce carbon emission intensity.In addition,industrial structure upgrading has a regulatory effect on energy transition.As the industrial structure continues to upgrade,the negative impact of energy transition on carbon emission intensity will strengthen.(3)Through examining the impact of policies such as promoting ethanol gasoline for vehicles and "coal-to-gas,electricity" policy on carbon emission intensity,it was found that promoting ethanol gasoline can effectively reduce carbon emission intensity,and the "coal-to-gas and electricity" policy also has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity.(4)There are significant differences between China and the three countries of Germany,the United States,and Japan in terms of resource endowment and consumption space.China should scientifically learn from foreign energy transition experience according to its own situation.Throughout this dissertation,three innovations are emphasized: First,in terms of research perspective and content,this dissertation systematically reviewed the relevant literature on the use of renewable and non-renewable energy and carbon emission intensity in China,and found that most domestic scholars’ research focused on the impact of non-renewable energy on carbon emission intensity,and few studies started from the structural perspective of non-renewable and renewable energy to study their impact on carbon emission intensity.In addition,most existing research is limited to the national level,while this dissertation uses provincial-level data as the research sample,expanding the sample range and reflecting the combination of practicality and timeliness.Second,in terms of research methods,this dissertation adopts the method of difference-in-differences(DID)to evaluate the impact of promoting ethanol gasoline and clean heating policies on carbon emission intensity.Based on a large amount of relevant data and urban samples,and on the basis of selecting a long time span,panel data analysis is used to not only overcome the problem of multicollinearity affecting time series analysis,but also provide more information,more changes,less collinearity,more degrees of freedom,and higher estimation efficiency.Third,in terms of research perspectives,the results of this study indicate that China’s energy transition has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity,and upgrading the industrial structure has a significant regulatory effect on the process of energy transition in reducing carbon emission intensity.At the same time,given the effectiveness of China’s energy policies,it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the promotion of energy transition from a policy perspective in the future. |
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