Research On The Impact Of Low-carbon Industrial Pilot Policy On The Rebound Effect Of Industrial Energy

With the continuous improvement of industrialization and urbanization in China,the energy shortage and environmental problems caused by excessive consumption of fossil energy are seriously threatening the healthy development of national economy.Meanwhile,energy rebound phenomenon,a negative consequence brought by technological progress,has long been a major obstacle to the development of low-carbon economy in China.Since 2010,China has carried out pilot projects for low-carbon industry construction in some selected regions.In order to explore the actual impact of this policy on the rebound effect of industry,the research ideas of natural experiment method for reference is used in this paper,the empirical study is carried out by using the dual difference model,and finally the effectiveness of the policy is evaluated.First of all,the contribution rate of technological progress of industrial sectors in various regions based on stochastic frontier production function and non-parametric DEA method was respectively calculated in this paper.Furthermore,the energy rebound effects of industrial sectors of the nation’s 30 provincial-level administrative regions(not including Tibet,Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macau)from 2005 to 2016 were estimated with the rebound effect measurement model,and the actual status of China’s industrial development was analyzed from the following four aspects: energy consumption intensity,contribution rate of technological progress,energy saving and rebound effect.On this basis,the actual effect of low-carbon industrial policy was quantitatively studied based on the perspective of energy rebound and with the adoption of "difference-in-differences" analysis model.Subsequently,the accuracy and reliability of the empirical research results were ensured by several robustness tests,and the dynamic effect of the policy was further discussed,providing theoretical basis and practical guidance for the further promotion and implementation of this policy.The results show ed that :(1)From 2005 to 2013,China’s overall energy consumption intensity was in a continuous declination,and the decline was large.While from 2013 to 2016,China’s overall energy consumption intensity increased steadily,and the changing rate basically remained unchanged;(2)On the whole,the contribution rate of China’s industrial technological progress showed an upward trend within the study period.The change of the contribution rate of industrial technological progress before 2008 was relatively stable,and the fluctuation range of the following years increased significantly;(3)The average energy saving of China’s industrial sector during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period was overall higher than that in the 12 th Five-Year Plan period.In addition,the average energy saving of all provinces in 2010 reached 13.3104 million tons of standard coal,which was the highest in history;(4)From 2005 to 2008,China’s overall industrial energy rebound value was relatively keeping stable and at a low level,with the specific value between 68% and 120%.After 2008,the value of industrial rebound across the country fluctuated dramatically,and periodic peaks occurred in several years;(5)The "difference-in-differences" analysis results showed that low-carbon industrial policy inhibited the industry rebound effect,and the result of multiple robustness test also ensured the accuracy and reliability of this conclusion;(6)Industrial restructuring,raising the level of marketization,increasing investment in pollution control,restricting foreign investment and introducing environment-friendly foreign-invested enterprises,and improving the level of industrialization could all effectively restrain the industrial rebound effect.The increase of expenditure on R&D would aggravate the rebound phenomenon to a certain extent.In addition,increasing the collection of sewage charges might not be an effective policy countermeasure,which might in fact increase the total energy consumption;(7)The policy effects reflected on the industrial rebound effect of low-carbon industrial policy might have a lag feature of time,with a lag period of about 2 years.From 2013 to 2015,with the passing of time,the inhibition effects of low-carbon policies on the rebound effect of industrial energy became more and more obvious.Moreover,the practical effects of low-carbon industrial policies were likely to weaken to some extent after 2015.