The Effect Of Energy Price And Government Consumptioh Policy On Carbon Emissions In China’s Transportation Industry

There are many factors influencing carbon emissions. The complex relationship among carbon emissions, economy and energy consumption is very important. Taking into account the volatility of oil prices, the inevitability of carbon tax and the uncertainty of international economy, this paper, using evolutionary game theory and empirical mode decomposition method, analyzes the impacts of oil prices, carbon tax and the economic crisis on China’s carbon emissions from the from the macro and micro perspective respectively.From the macro perspective this paper uses partial least squares regression model to study the impact of international oil prices on the Chinese transport sector carbon emissions, first select the GDP, international oil prices, private car ownership, passenger and cargo traffic as the five independent variables effect of carbon emissions industry factors, and analyzes the mechanism of international oil prices on the industry’s carbon emissions. With the independent variables’historical data from1994to2009as a sample, the fitting of the industry carbon emissions is satisfying. And based on the data of2011, the paper maintains the private car owning, passenger and freight transportation volume to study international oil prices’impact on the industry carbon emissions at different levels of GDP. The results show that:with the same GDP growth, the industry carbon emissions increase with the rise in international oil prices, and vice versa, the industry carbon emissions decrease; and lastly when GDP increases to a certain extent, in both cases of international oil prices’ rise or fall, the industry carbon emissions will go up, and the industry carbon emissions increase even faster while the energy prices are rising. Limit the growth in private-vehicle ownership, change China’s transport sector within the next short-term in the structure of energy consumption and put forward China’s new energy, alternative energy sources and renewable energy application so as to weaken the dependence on international oil, and indirectly slowdown China’s GDP growth rate, which are all possible solutions to reduce China’s transportation industry carbon emission.From the micro perspective of evolutionary game theory under the same car brand cars in different consumer groups consumer spending policies and government spending on car emissions cost impact of the evolutionary path and balanced choice behavior formation process, this paper analyzes the impact of different parameter changes brought and government spending policies of positive and negative effects. In this context, according to the game between the situations in China’s auto consumption market consumer buying behavior of different cars and government consumption policies, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model of consumer purchase behavior for different displacement cars, and analyzes the evolution problem of the evenly mixed consumer group’s different displacement automobile behavior in the case of single automobile brand. Studies have shown that:in the combined effect of oil prices, consumer utility, consumer policy and car costs, consumer buying behavior exists to the three specific evolution cases of the evolution to the small displacement evolution, random evolution and the evolution to the large displacement. The paper then analyzes the evolution characteristics of consumer buying behavior in the particular case of the Volkswagen Magotan car in the current circumstances. When the operational costs for lower oil price is not enough to become an obstacle to the car consumers to buy cars behavior capacity factors, or the utility consumption difference is higher, the government should increase the intensity of consumption policies to guide consumers to purchase low-emission cars; when the oil price is on the higher level, the government can gradually relax implementation auto consumption policy. This provides the theoretical support for the government to guide automotive consumers’ scientific and reasonable energy-saving buying behavior.