PM＿(2.5) Pollution Control And Associated Health Impacts Estimation Based On Industrial Structure Optimization

China’s rapid economic development in recent decades was accompanied by heavy PM_2.5pollution,while PM_2.5 seriously endangers public health and social-economic development.The Chinese government has made great efforts to control PM_2.5 pollution,especially after the State Council issued the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in September 2013.Although China has made remarkable achievements in controlling PM_2.5 pollution in recent years,the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 in most cities is still far higher than the Air Quality Guidelines of the World Health Organization（WHO）.The public health burden attributable to PM_2.5 pollution are still significant.With the deepening of PM_2.5 pollution control,the space for further end-of-pipe treatment is becoming smaller and smaller.The industrial structure optimization with the goal of multi-air pollutants emission reduction is now an important starting point for future PM_2.5pollution source control.From the perspective of interaction of economy,atmospheric environment and society,this study explores the feasible solutions to achieve PM_2.5 pollution control through industrial structure optimization and estimates corresponding health benefits.Firstly,this study explores the industrial linkage mechanism and identify the key industrial sectors and chains in the view of PM_2.5-related pollutants nexus.Combining input-output analysis and linkage analysis,an industrial linkage analysis framework is presented.Based on the Chinese multi-regional input-output table containing 31 provinces and 42 sectors for each province and emission inventory of seven air pollutants(primary PM_2.5,CO,NO_x,SO₂,NH₃,BC,OC),this study identifies 42 key sectors of multi-air pollutants nexus.For embodied emissions of primary PM_2.5,CO and SO₂,the linkage effects of Smelting and Processing of Metals are significant.For NO_x,BC and OC,the linkage effects of Transport,Storage,and Postal Services are significant.For most key sectors,their net forward linkage effects are much more significant than their net backward linkage effects.Shandong,Hebei and Jiangsu have the most key sectors and chains of multi-air pollutants nexus.Three main paths of embodied emissions flows of air pollutants include the path from the sector of Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products to the sector of Construction,the path from the sector of Smelting and Processing of Metals to the sector ofManufacture of Metal Products,and the path from the sector of Smelting and Processing of Metals to the sector of Construction.Secondly,this study evaluates the health and economic impacts attributable to PM_2.5 exposure in China.The Global Exposure Mortality Model（GEMM）is used to quantify the premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5 exposure and the Age-adjusted Statistical Value of Life method（Age-adjusted VSL）is used to monetize the health loss.The contribution of five driving factors（exposure level,population size,population aging,basic mortality rate and residents’disposable income）related to the changes in PM_2.5-related annual impacts is revealed.Results show that from 2015 to 2021,the annual premature deaths caused by PM_2.5 pollution in China’s 337 cities decreased by about 3.1%annually.Especially,the premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5 exposure in 2+26 cities and the Yangtze River Delta decreased by more than a quarter.Exposure level is the primary factor determining the PM_2.5-related public health burden,given that the decrease of annual average concentration of PM_2.5 in China from 2015 to 2021（18μg/m³）reduced the PM_2.5-related annual premature deaths by about 0.64 million.On the contrary,driven by growth of residents’disposable income,the annual per capita economic loss caused by PM_2.5 pollution increased by 9.3%from2015 to 2021,which was much lower than the growth of residents’disposable income in the same period（59.9%）.More attentions should be paid to the exposure of aging population.From 2015 to2020,ageing population exposed to PM_2.5 above 5μg/m³（the WHO air quality guideline）increased by 16.4%.Driven by population aging,the annual premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5 exposure in 2021 increased by about 14.9%compared to 2015.Based on the analysis of industrial linkage mechanism and identified key industrial sectors and chains in the view of multi-air pollutants nexus,this paper further explores the industrial structure adjustment plans targeting at PM_2.5 pollution control.Taking the emission reductions of PM_2.5-related air pollutants as goals and taking energy consumption and sectoral production capacity et al.as constraints,the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm（MOPSO）is used to optimize the economic output structure of Chinese economic system containing 31provinces and 42 sectors for each province.From different decision-making perspectives,this study sets three scenarios:1)the minimum disturbance to economic system output,2)theminimum energy consumption and 3)the most collaborative reduction of multi-air pollutants.Correspondingly,three optimal solutions are selected from the Pareto optimal solutions as the final industrial structure adjustment plans.The results show that from Scenario 1 to Scenario 3,the emission reductions of air pollutants increase gradually.In Scenario 3,the emissions of primary PM_2.5,CO,NO_x,SO₂,NH₃,BC and OC decrease by 7.16%,8.54%,7.45%,7.19%,6.25%,7.94%and 7.61%,respectively.In view of spatial distribution of emission reductions,Hebei,Henan,Shandong and Jiangsu are the main provinces where the emissions of primary PM_2.5,CO,NO_x,SO₂ decrease by more than 10%after industrial structure optimization.Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong,benefit more from the optimization of industrial structure,but provinces that rely more on pollution-intensive manufacturing industries such as Hebei and Henan achieve emission reductions at the expense of economic output.In terms of industrial distribution of emission reductions,pollution-intensive manufacturing industries represented by Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products and Smelting and Processing of Metals,and productive service industries like Transport,Storage,and Postal Services bear the brunt of industrial structure optimization as their production are strictly restricted.Finally,we further evaluate the improvement of PM_2.5 pollution and public health benefits brought by the industrial structure optimization.The air quality model GEOS-Chem is used to simulate the PM_2.5 pollution in China before and after the industrial structure optimization.And then the GEMM and Age-adjusted VSL methods are used to quantify the changes in PM_2.5-related premature deaths and economic losses.Results show that the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 in China decreases by about 6.7μg/m³ after the industrial structure optimization,which avoids 0.50 million premature deaths and 21.7%economic loss.2+26 Cities,Cheng-yu urban agglomeration and Fen-wei Plain are the regions with the most significant improvement in PM_2.5pollution after the optimization of industrial structure as their annual average PM_2.5 concentrations decrease by 26.1μg/m³,22.6μg/m³ and 20.4μg/m³,respectively.Accordingly,the PM_2.5-related premature deaths in these three regions significantly decrease by 25.9%,30.2%and 24.7%,respectively.Although Henan and Hebei provinces have seen their economic outputs being reduced after the industrial structure optimization,they have also achieved significant healthbenefits as the their PM_2.5-related premature deaths decrease by 53.0 and 44.8 thousand respectively.To sum up,combining economic model,air quality model,health impact estimating model and multi-objective intelligent optimization algorithm,this study reveals the multi-system interaction mechanism of economic activities producing PM_2.5 pollution,which in turn affects public health and economic development.By evaluating the optimal industrial structure adjustment plan targeting at PM_2.5 pollution control,and analyzing the changes in PM_2.5 pollution and related public health impacts before and after the industrial structure optimization,this study proves the feasibility of potential industrial structure optimization plan for both of environmental benefits and public health benefits.This study may provide a more comprehensive and systematic theoretical support for air pollution source control planning based on industrial structure optimization.