Researcn On Analysis And Synergetic Optimization Model Of Electricity Transmission Network And Its Effects On Carbon Emissions

As a major driving force for industrialization,urbanization and informatization in the world,electricity is expected to continue to play an important role in promoting high-quality socio-economic development for a long time to come.However,due to different levels of economic development,technical conditions and resource endowments,the electricity generation and demand in different regions are not consistent.Especially for China,the supply of primary energy,such as coal,natural gas and hydropower,does not match the current electricity consumption,which is spatially heterogeneous.In order to alleviate this spatial mismatch,cross-provincial and cross-regional transmission has become an important measure to narrow the gap between regional power production and consumption.In recent years,with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage and ultra-high voltage construction in China,the interconnectivity of regional and provincial power grids is gradually strengthened.Inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transmission will have a significant impact on energy use and carbon emissions in China and various regions,which brings new challenges to the management of multi-regional interconnected electric energy system in China.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of electricity transmission and network structure characteristics,explore the influence mechanism of carbon emission driving effect and inter-provincial transfer,and develop a source-grid-load synergistic optimization model to realize the coordinated and sustainable development of multi-regional interconnected power energy system,and help our "double carbon" goal to be realized as scheduled.Aiming at the challenges of multi-regional interconnected power energy system management in China,the main innovation achievements of this research are as follows:(1)A downscaling method for inter-regional power transmission data was developed,and the inter-provincial power transmission data sets from 2005 to 2020 were constructed and the spatio-temporal changes of power transmission were analyzed.On this basis,the provincial power grid as the node,with a provincial power toward and bring up the relationship between nodes of the edge,edge weights in power transmission quantity,constructed from 2005 to 2020,the Chinese provincial power transmission system of the weighted directed network,respectively,from the aspect of the overall structure and individual structural parsing the provincial electric power network flow pattern and evolution rule.(2)On the generation side,the IPCC inventory method was used to calculate the carbon emissions of the power production process,and then based on the LMDI method,the decomposition model of the driving factors of power carbon emissions including the power transfer and transfer factors was constructed.Finally,random forest clustering algorithm was used to classify 31 provincial power grid regions in China according to the characteristics of carbon emissions,and the driving effect of electricity transmission on carbon emissions and policy implications were analyzed.(3)On the transmission side,the quasi-input-output table of electricity from 2005 to 2020 is developed.Based on the quasi-input-output model(QIO),the amount of carbon emissions transfer caused by inter-provincial electricity transmission was calculated,and the complex relationship between carbon emission transfer and provincial power network structure was simulated by using the stepwise cluster analysis technique(SC A).Finally,multi-level factorial analysis(MFA)was used to quantify the influence of multi-factors on carbon emission transfer.(4)The traditional single-level optimization framework of electric energy system was improved.Based on bi-level programming method,the carbon abatement oriented source-grid-load synergistic optimization of China’s provincial electric energy system was developed.It could not only balance the preference and the conflicts between the two levels of decision makers,but also could depict inter-provincial interaction and the complex relation of electricity transmission in detail.Furthermore,the deep decarbonization path of electric energy system under the direction of carbon emissions reduction in 2021-2050 was explored.To sum up,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of China’s inter-provincial electricity transmission and network structure characteristics,explored the driving effects of electricity transmission on carbon emissions and the influence mechanism of network structure on carbon emissions transfer,and developd a carbon abatement oriented source-grid-load synergistic optimization of China’s provincial electric energy system.It provided decision support for China to deal with the problem of spatial mismatch between resource endowment and load demand and realize the synergetic optimization of multi-regional inter-connected electric energy system.