Research On Ecological And Environmental Risk Prevention System From The Perspective Of Spatial Control

Urbanization and industrialization have brought about serious ecological and environmental risks,and prevention of ecological and environmental risks is a necessary part of high-quality development during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period and for a long time to come in China.However,the conventional governance system of ecology and environment is not rigid enough and needs to be improved.Since the 18 th Party Congress,China has entered the stage of cognitive problem solving from a spatial perspective with systematic thinking,and the spatial perspective has become a new perspective to prevent ecological and environmental risks.It is of great theoretical value to improve the theoretical system and build a framework of spatial control system to prevent ecological and environmental risks,so as to promote the modernization of China’s governance capacity and governance system.At the same time,it is of great practical significance to quantitatively assess the prominent ecological and environmental risks in the Yellow River Basin and to formulate risk prevention policy recommendations based on the analysis results.This dissertation takes ecological and environmental risks as the main research objective and divides into four aspects: theoretical research,system establishment,quantitative assessment,and policy recommendations based on the perspective of spatial control.In the theoretical research part,the second chapter combines various basic theories to provide theoretical support for the prevention of ecological and environmental risks from the spatial perspective.In the system establishment part,Chapter 3 analyzes the essential causes and mechanism of formation of ecological and environmental risks from the spatial perspective in the post-industrial civilization context and identifies the opportunities and mechanisms for strengthening risk prevention brought about by changes in the ongoing spatial control system.Chapter 4establishes a systematic ecological and environmental risk prevention system including management system and assessment system.In the quantitative assessment section,Chapter 5 constructs a framework for ecological and environmental risk prevention in the Yellow River Basin and identifies the characteristic risks of the Yellow River Basin.Chapter 6 focusing on the water resources risk in the Yellow River Basin applies the input-output method,structural decomposition method and ecological network method to analyze the characteristics of virtual water networks between regions and industries as well as the influencing factors.Chapter 7 focusing on the ecological risks in the basin,applies the In VEST model and the spatial analysis method to analyze the risks of ecosystem service changes due to various types of land use conversions.Chapter 8focusing environmental risks in the basin,taking atmospheric and water environmental pollutants as the research objects,analyzes their spatial distribution and significant influencing factors by building land use regression models and random forest models.In chapter 9,the thesis presents the risk prevention ideas and policy recommendations for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin in the light of the abovementioned resource risk,ecological risk and environmental risk assessment results.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The essential reason for the formation of ecological and environmental risks in the post-industrial civilization era is the unrestrained pursuit of profits by capital in the market economy and the special role played by local governments;the spatial distribution of spatial elements and spatial flows in the wave of urbanization and industrialization are important causes of ecological and environmental risks.(2)To build a complete ecological and environmental risk prevention system,we need to rely on the spatial control management system with "three lines and one list" as the core and the assessment system with "people-land-industry" as the key to play the role of spatial control.(3)In terms of water resources risk,the Yellow River basin as a whole faces the risk of virtual water resources outflow,mainly flowing to Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and the Yangtze River basin.Within the basin,Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are the main net exporters,which are related to the production of local agricultural and livestock commodities.A large amount of virtual water flows from agriculture to food processing industry,construction and service industry,and the flows are increasing.The main reason for the risk is that the increase in per capita consumption in the downstream areas promotes agricultural production and virtual water flows out with the trade of agricultural and pastoral products.(4)In terms of ecological risk,the land use change from arable land to construction land in the Yellow River Basin resulted in a decrease in water production and carbon sequestration,but an increase in soil conservation.The change of land use from grassland to unused land has resulted in a significant decrease in carbon sequestration and soil conservation but an increase in water production.(5)In terms of environmental risks,the large concentration of chemical and mining industries in the Yellow River Basin has a significant impact on the elevation of PM2.5and PM10 in the atmospheric environment,mining and power industries contributing significantly to SO2 and O3,while NO2 is contributed by chemical industries,mechanical and electronic manufacturing,electricity industries and road traffic.In the water environment,only the mining industry makes a significant contribution to ammonia nitrogen and permanganate index;while dissolved oxygen is more related to the local population and water area.(6)The ecological and environmental risks faced by the Yellow River Basin have significant spatial differences.Upstream Qinghai Province faces the ecological risk of lower carbon sequestration and lower soil and water conservation function.Gansu faces the compound risk of lower water production and water outflow,the ecological risk of lower carbon sequestration,and the risk of water environment.Ningxia faces the risk of low water production and water outflow.Inner Mongolia faces the compound risk of water resources outflow and water environment degradation,and the ecological risk of reduced carbon sequestration.The midstream regions of Shanxi and Shaanxi face complex risks to the atmosphere and water environment.The downstream region Henan needs to guard against compound risks including lower water production,lower soil and water conservation function and poor water environment quality as well as atmospheric environmental risks;Shandong needs to guard against atmospheric environmental risks.(7)The Yellow River basin to prevent virtual water resources risk is mainly considered from two perspectives: one is to improve production technology and water withdraw efficiency in the upstream areas,and the other is to control the consumption of the construction industry in the downstream areas.Preventing ecological risks can be done from two perspectives:spatial development boundary control and financial transfer payments.The key to prevent environmental risks is to start from industry.Reasonably regulating the development speed of industries in upstream,midstream and downstream areas,the upstream and downstream chains and scale of industries,in order to form a high-quality industrial development path and effectively prevent environmental risks.