An Empirical Analysis On The Impact Of China’s Export Trade On Carbon Emissions

Recently,with the development of the global economy,environmental problems have become increasingly prominent.The economic development and environmental issues caused by the lack of coordination have aroused widespread concern and discussion in the economic community.Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming as an important part of environmental problems cannot be ignored and have been discussed a lot in the international academic and political circles.Many countries signed lots of documents such as "Kyoto Protocol","Paris agreement",and made corresponding commitments according to their own situation at more than 20 global climate conferences.China,as a country with high use of carbon based energy and the world’s largest carbon dioxide emissions,in order to continue the process of sustainable development,has the responsibility to undertake carbon dioxide emission reduction obligations.As the driving force of China’s economic growth,investment,consumption and exports play an important role in China’s economic development.Among them,in terms of foreign trade,China’s manufacturing industry is at the top level of world’s highest net exports in the "12th Five-Year" period,making the great contribution to China’s economic.Therefore,under the background of the new normal economy and the strong momentum of manufacturing export trade as well as the process of the low-carbon economy development,it is worth exploring the concrete influence of relationship between export trade and carbon dioxide.So,the impact of manufacturing export trade exploration on its carbon dioxide emissions is significant.The research progress of the paper is divided into seven parts.The first chapter is a part of introduction,which describes the research background and significance of this topic in detail.In this part,the paper puts forward the research content,framework and methods,as well as the possible innovations.The second chapter is related literature review.This plate is from the export trade research,low carbon economy and carbon emission reduction research and export trade and carbon emissions relations research three aspects,and then makes a related comment.The third chapter explains the current situation of China’s export trade and carbon emissions.This part firstly defines the scope of the manufacturing industry.Secondly,the paper analyzes the situation of the manufacturing industry through output,energy consumption,total factor productivity,technical efficiency and technical progress.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the current situation of the export development of China’s manufacturing industry.Finally,the carbon dioxide emissions from different industries are analyzed.The fourth chapter is an overview of the theory and research methods of export trade and carbon emissions.The chapter firstly summarizes the relevant theories of export trade and the relevant measures.Then,the paper describes low carbon economy,some theories about carbon emissions in China under and the research method of LMDI.Last,the chapter explains the theory of the export trade impact on the carbon emissions of manufacturing industry.The fifth and sixth chapters are the empirical part of the paper,which is divided into the following five steps.The first step is to analyze the correlation between the export of manufacturing industry and the carbon dioxide emissions of the industry.After determining the correlation,the second step is to test the stationary and Granger causality of the data.The third step,the export trade index is subdivided into the export trade structure index of the manufacturing industry and revealed comparative advantage index.And then,the effects of the structure of export trade and the competitive performance of manufacturing industry on the carbon dioxide emissions from manufacturing industry are examined and the results are compared.The fourth step is to decompose and analyze the carbon dioxide emissions in the manufacturing industry with the method of LMDI.The fifth step,through analysis of the export trade structure index with the energy consumption structure,energy intensity factors,economic scale factors sequentially for simultaneous regression,explains the specific path effect of the export trade structure acting on manufacturing industry of carbon dioxide.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations part.In this part,the conclusion of the empirical analysis of the fourth chapter is summarized,and based on those conclusions;this chapter would give out the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Through the current situation analysis and empirical test,the main conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1)Through correlation test and further return test,it is found that there is a significant correlation between the export volume of other industries and carbon dioxide emissions except the metal products industry and instrument manufacturing industry.(2)The manufacturing industry export trade index is refined to the export trade structure index and industrial competitiveness index,during "12th Five-Year",the change of export structure and industrial competitiveness of the industry in a steady state,and the effect of the trade structure on carbon dioxide emissions is more obvious than the effect of the industrial competitiveness of the industry on carbon dioxide emissions.(3)It is found that the export trade causes effect on the carbon emission of the sub-industries of manufacturing industry through export trade structure effecting on energy consumption structure by analyzing on the relation factors of export trade structure after decomposing the carbon dioxide.