An Empirical Study On The Aquatic Ecological Governance Performance Of The Yellow River Basin And Its Influencing Factors

A history of harnessing the Yellow River is a half of the history of governing the country.For thousands of years,the Chinese people respected and relied on the Yellow River.Without the Yellow River,there would be no our nation.However,the complex water regime and frequent floods have made it difficult to tame and manage the Yellow River for a long time.On September 18,2019,General Secretary Xi Jinping convened a symposium on ecological protection and high quality development of the Yellow River Basin and delivered an important speech.The Yellow River basin’s ecological protection and high quality development rose to a major national strategy.After the Yellow River Basin has brought new opportunities and stages of development,this article takes the Yellow River Basin ecological governance performance as the research object with the following logical thinking,including 1)basic theoretical research-2)evaluation system construction and performance evaluation-3)influencing factor analysis-4)improvement path research.By systematically combing the basic research on the ecological management of the Yellow River Basin at home and abroad,this article proposes the research theme.Based on the 4 theory,which is The Capacity Development,the Ecological Footprint,the sustainable development and the Performance evaluation,this paper tries to make a performance measurement system for the aquatic ecological governance of the Yellow River Basin.The indicator settings and data sources are from theoretical and empirical research.Through the data envelopment analysis(DEA),this article evaluates and analyzes the aquatic ecological governance performance of 8 major provinces and autonomous regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2019.After exploring the influencing factors of the aquatic ecological governance performance,the research sets specific measurement indicators and data.The dynamic performance over the years is an explained variable,and each influencing factor is an explanatory variable.The role of the spatial analysis model is to test whether the positive or negative the effects are and how strong or weak the various influence factors are.Based on the dynamic results of the aquatic ecological governance performance evaluation of the Yellow River Basin and the spatial effect analysis of influencing factors,this paper try to make some suggests to improve the aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River Basin.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the framework of evaluation system of the aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River Basin is set up.According to Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization and the main development goals proposed for the Yellow River Basin,the aquatic ecological governance should be related to social and economic development,people’s well-being,water saving and environmental protection.On the basis of 4 theories above and the situation of the Yellow River Basin,an evaluation system of aquatic ecological governance performance is constructed.the first level indicators are chosen,such as water resources input,labor input,financial input,government attention,economic development output,green development output,and pollution output.Second,there are empirical evaluation and analysis of aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River basin.The results show that:1.The governance performance shows poor in general,with an increased temporarily and then decreased trend.2.The governance performance fluctuates in different years,especially highest in 2016 and lowest in 2007.3.Different provinces or autonomous regions(PAR)in the Yellow River Basin have various governance performances by years.The governance performance of eastern PARs are higher than that of central and western PARs,and the upper and middle reaches of ecological governance face greater pressure than downstream.4.There are surplus input and insufficient output in the aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River Basin.Third,there are spatial analyses of aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River Basin.The geographical connections and differences show that the spatial analysis of influencing factors and the geographical correlation cannot be ignored.The spatial correlation test shows that PARs have a certain effect of geographic correlation.It is finally determined that the spatial Dubin model under individual fixed effects(ind FE SDM)fits best after tests and is suitable for analysis among other spatial regression models.Through the model,the research explores 11 potential influencing factors,some of which are positive,negative,strong or weak impacts.The factors,like economic,water resources,urbanization and some others,are quite different and complicated for each PAR and for its surrounding PARs.Fourth,there are analyses of influencing factors of the aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River Basin.The findings are:1.In the Yellow River Basin,economic development in each PAR has a strong positive effect on its own local area,but a weak negative effect on the neighboring area,and a moderate negative effect on the entire basin.2.The water resource of the PAR has a very strong positive impact on its own local area,a very strong negative impact on the neighboring areas,and a weak negative impact on the entire basin.3.The urbanization rate has a very strong positive effect on local area,a weak negative effect on neighboring areas,and a weak positive effect on the entire basin.The industrialization and the upgrading of industrial structure have negative effects on all regions.Technological innovation has a strong positive effect in all regions.4.The education-oriented government in the PAR has a weak positive effect throughout the basin.Domestic waste treatment and industrial pollution control have negative effects on the region respectively,positive effects on neighboring areas,and weak effects on the entire basin.Fifth,there are some ways to improve the performance of aquatic ecological governance in the Yellow River Basin.1.The top-level design of the Yellow River Basin is needed.Governance losses caused by mutual exclusion among PARs ough to reduce.More mechanism and cooperation need to be built across the basin.2.To promote aquatic ecological governance with high-quality economy,holistic governance and a unique overall pattern of "one corridor,one axis,three plateaus,five districts,seven groups,and multiple points" can help.3.Some water and sediment control system need to be built.The flood control and disaster reduction system ough to improve.Water resources must be taken as the most rigid constraint.Systemic control of water and soil erosion should keep.4.To promote ecological governance with urbanization,new paths for ecological governance with the development of characteristic industries can be explored.Technological innovation will support the governance.5.Government should increase educational investment,reduce the domestic garbage from the very beginning,and deem garbage disposal as new fashion.The innovations of this article are mainly in the following four aspects:First,an evaluation system for the performance of ecological governance has been constructed.At present,there are fewer researches on how the performance of aquatic ecological governance is in the Yellow River Basin.Theories are the foundations of the article.Considering the national strategic requirements in the new era and the related papers,this research selects comprehensive,representative,and operable indicators to construct the framework of evaluation.It provides a feasible way to calculate and explore the aquatic ecological governance performance of the Yellow River Basin.It will also enriches part of the basic researches on the national strategy,the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Second,the performance of aquatic ecological governance in the Yellow River Basin is empirically measured in many regions and over a period of time as long as possible.Based on the panel data from 2004 to 2019 and 8 major PARs,this research compares and analyzes the differences in aquatic ecological governance performance among different PARs in the basin.Thirdly,the suitable spatial model for the performance evaluation of aquatic ecological governance in the Yellow River Basin was selected.At present,OLS is widely used for regression analysis in related circles,which may not appropriate enough.In this paper,the SDM,selected from multiple models,is more scientific and reasonable for spatial regression analysis.Fourth,based on the analysis of influencing factors,several innovative conclusions that are different from common-sense views are drawn,some of which are the most innovative discoveries:1.Economy has a great positive effect on the local aquatic ecological governance for each RAR,but a negative effect on the whole basin.The real reason why the economic factors lead to contradictory effects is due to the mutually exclusive relationship brought by the economic competition among PARs.The exclusion and competition offset the strong positive effect provided by economic development and make the governance perform poorly across the basin.That is to say,the poor performance of aquatic ecological governance of the river basin,from the economic view,is due to the loss of governance by the less coordination among PARs,rather than the pollution brought by economic development.2.The phenomenon of"resource curse" presented by some papers does exist in the Yellow River Basin.It means that more water makes situation worse but less makes better.Due to the low utilization rate and waste of water resources,the ecological governance performance is lower than that of PARs with insufficient water resources.Saving water is the key.3.The impact of a controversial factor,the urbanization,on ecological governance is explored.At present,in some researches,many people believe that the improvement of governance brought about by urbanization will lead to a better ecological governance.However,other opponents believe that the pollution caused by urbanization will lead to worse ecological governance.Based on spatial analysis,at least in the Yellow River Basin,urbanization has a very strong positive impact on the ecological governance for each PAR,a weaker negative impact on neighboring areas of the PAR,and a weaker positive impact on the entire basin.Comprehensively,urbanization is a positive factor for aquatic ecological governance.4.The garbage disposal and industrial pollution control in the Yellow River Basin may not play as good roles if the environment is supposed to be better.These factors are extroversion,which means it will bring worse consequence for itself and convenience for neighbors if an area improve its capacity of garbage disposal and industrial pollution control.It is necessary to make a reasonable layout and plan before facilities are built.