Two-way Movement: Interaction And Structural Change Of EU Climate Leadership Under Fragmented Governanc

Accompanied by various uncertainties,economic globalization is advancing all the way.It not only affects the structure of the international power system,but also projects this ever-evolving dynamic feature to the field of global climate governance:it further intensifies the climate stance among countries.Differences caused the entire UNFCCC governance system to stagnate.This has also stimulated some national actors who are "greatly affected by climate change" or "have climate ambitions" to get together with like-minded countries outside the UNFCCC governance system,and jointly Advancing governance actions in a more efficient manner.In recent years,these "small groups" have developed rapidly and informal mechanisms outside the framework of the UNFCCC have gradually formed side by side with the traditional mainstream governance system of the UNFCCC.This trend of "Climate Fragmentation" eventually led to the formation of the Climate Governance Complex(Complex Regime).Therefore,the assessment and analysis of the influence of actors in the field of climate governance first needs to be based on the current "fragmentation" of the governance structure,and discuss the climate actions and influence of actors in different governance systems.For a long time,the EU has claimed to be a "pioneer" in the field of climate governance,and this controversial role has extended to academic discussions.Issues related to the extent of the EU’s climate influence,whether it has leadership,and the development trend of its climate power are all involved.However,due to time and space constraints,the current discussion on the topic of EU climate leadership is bound to be limited and affected to a certain extent,resulting in controversial and difficult to conclude.This paper puts the EU’s climate action into the UNFCCC governance system and outside it,and finds that: the EU’s climate influence in the UNFCCC shows a fluctuating and declining trend,while the climate influence outside the UNFCCC framework is strong.Looking at the overall situation,the EU’s climate power presents a "two-way movement" situation.Based on this,this paper puts forward the core research question: Why does the climate power of the EU show a trend of reverse development among different governance systems? Focusing on this core issue,this paper first judges the "EU climate leadership" that has been debated for a long time in the current academic circles,and divides it into different stages among different governance systems for discussion.On this basis,it further analyzes the roots of disparity in EU Climate leadership trends between different governance systems.In fact,the two-way development trend of the EU’s climate leadership is the result of the continuous outward transfer and change of its climate leadership in the UNFCCC governance system.At the same time,this paper also elaborates on the EU’s active participation in governance actions,which is against the logic of "free-riding"(FreeRiding),and demonstrates the EU’s motivation for pursuing climate leadership from different dimensions.In this process,through the investigation of the special issue of climate governance,this paper equates the formation of "leadership" with the establishment of "follower relationship" in the field of climate governance.And on this basis,through the study on characteristics of "climate leadership",the "following relationship" in the field of climate governance can be divided into two parts: process following and result following.In addition,the climate governance fragmentation pattern is both an independent variable and an influencing factor in this paper.With the development and evolution of the fragmentation process,there are different interactions between the governance systems inside and outside the UNFCCC framework and different types of governance environments.This interaction between governance systems will have different shaping effects on the climate leadership of the EU in different governance systems.In general,this paper analyzes the EU’s "process follow-up","result followup" and "interaction between governance systems in the process of climate governance fragmentation" in the two governance systems inside and outside the UNFCCC,as well as their effects under different scenarios.