Research On The Influence Of Industrial Agglomeration On The Price Of Commodity Housing

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s economic achievements are inseparable from the rapid development of industry.In 2019,the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries accounts for 93% of the total GDP.The development of industry and service industry are the important supports of China’s high-quality economic growth.At the same time,the unbalanced development of regional economy is still prominent,and industries are more inclined to gather and incline in coastal areas and large and medium-sized cities.So,whether the housing price rising,which is called one of the "urban diseases",is closely related to the degree of spatial agglomeration of urban industry,has become a meaningful research topic.Housing links investment and consumption,entity and finance,which is the best fit point between economic problems and people’s livelihood problems.In the key stage of realizing the Chinese dream of "living in a certain place",this paper links industrial agglomeration with commodity housing price,it not only deepens the understanding of the effect of industrial spatial concentration,but also tries to provide another explanation for the formation and evolution of commodity housing price in the new era.Geography not only helps us understand the relationship between human economic activities and the environment more clearly,but also provides unique insights and acute perspectives for the interpretation of complex economic phenomena.In recent years,economic opening and industrialization have made the role of geography more and more important,and economic agglomeration to developed cities and coastal areas has gradually become a trend.With the manufacturing and modern service industries as the main economic structure,the pursuit of economies of scale effect is the main motivation to promote the flow of production factors to cities with higher concentration degree.Compared with the manufacturing industry,the technology service industry and financial industry with knowledge,technology and information as the main competitiveness prefer agglomeration in developed cities.Based on the differences of city size and individuals,how do the agglomeration scale effect and crowding effect of manufacturing industry affect the housing affordability of residents? With the progress of science and technology,skilled labor force flows more and more frequently.In different economic development periods and different geographical space,is there any difference in the impact of the agglomeration of science and technology service industry on the price of commercial housing? With the decline of financial transaction cost,can financial agglomeration affect the price of commercial housing by relieving the financing constraints on both ends of the supply and demand of the real estate market? If so,how? The answers to these questions are helpful for us to understand the role of industrial agglomeration in the change of commercial housing price,which is of great significance to the steady operation of the real estate market and to avoid the ups and downs of commercial housing price.In view of this,this paper analyzes the role of industrial agglomeration in the change of commodity housing prices with the help of agglomeration externality theory,crowding effect theory,labor flow theory of new economic geography and financial geography theory.According to the theory of agglomeration externality,the scale effect of industrial agglomeration makes income,labor and capital accumulate and settle in the agglomeration area,skilled labor inflow and capital,while income,population and capital are the basic elements of housing market equilibrium.The crowding effect theory reveals the possibility that the excessive agglomeration of manufacturing industry affects the housing affordability by reducing productivity and pushing up land price.The labor flow theory of new economic geography explains the rise of commodity housing price from the perspective of how the agglomeration of science and technology service industry attracts skilled labor.While the theory of financial geography provides a theoretical support for how the financial industry agglomeration,which breaks through the limitation of geographical factors,affects the housing price.Then this paper analyzes the impact paths of industrial agglomeration on commodity housing prices.On the basis of industry level segmentation,this paper focuses on the definition and basis of the research scope of industrial agglomeration in this paper.Traditional manufacturing industry agglomeration,emerging technology service industry agglomeration and financial industry agglomeration with virtual color are selected as representative industrial agglomeration phenomenon.It is helpful for this paper to study not only the comprehensiveness of industrial agglomeration,but also the deductive law of industrial agglomeration.Since there are levels in the industry,the path of industrial agglomeration affecting the price of commodity housing should must be hierarchical.Based on the hierarchical paths of industrial agglomeration affecting commodity housing price,the paper chooses the influence path structure needed in this study,which is the overall level influence path and the specific influence path of manufacturing industry,science and technology service industry and financial industry agglomeration.Based on the understanding of the general influence law,the differential action path is summarized as follows: First of all,under the influence of the scale effect of manufacturing agglomeration and the externality of industrial agglomeration,the labor income rises sharply.In addition,the decrease of land financial dependence and the increase of public expenditure relieve the pressure of housing price rise.Therefore,for the cities in the stage of scale effect,manufacturing agglomeration is conducive to reducing the price income ratio,which is the relative commodity housing price.Under the effect of manufacturing agglomeration crowding,the decline of labor income caused by the decline of productivity and the intensified competition between manufacturers for land,an immovable resource in space,will jointly affect the commodity housing market,thus improving the price income ratio.Secondly,this paper combs out the logical process of the impact of technology service industry agglomeration on commodity housing price.Although the skill matching effect and human capital accumulation effect both explain the phenomenon of skilled labor mobility,we cannot deny that the wage advantage is an important factor for technology service industry agglomeration to attract skilled labor inflow,while the increase of skilled labor inflow directly affects the market equilibrium of commodity housing.Finally,unlike the spatial agglomeration of manufacturing industry and science and technology service industry,the virtual agglomeration of financial resources mainly alleviates the financing constraints of real estate development enterprises and housing consumers by reducing the financing cost,and produces a new equilibrium price of commodity housing when the supply and demand of commodity housing are equal.To study the role of industrial agglomeration in the change of commercial housing price,it is key to measure the index of industrial agglomeration effectively and understand the development trend of industrial agglomeration.Based on the introduction of a series of industrial agglomeration index measurement methods,the employment density method is selected to measure the industrial agglomeration index involved in this paper.Through this method,the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry,the agglomeration degree of science and technology service industry and the agglomeration degree of financial industry were calculated respectively.By means of the average annual growth rate index,core density,spatial distribution map and other methods,this paper describes the overall situation of China’s urban industrial development in recent years and the spatio-temporal characteristics of industrial agglomeration,and makes an in-depth analysis of its static characteristics and dynamic trends.The research shows that the degree of industrial agglomeration has a deepening trend and the geographical distribution characteristics of high in the east and low in the west.Next,this paper analyzes the impact of three industry clusters on commodity housing prices through mathematical analysis and empirical model.On the basis of the theoretical analysis of the scale effect and crowding effect of manufacturing agglomeration,this paper first explains the process of manufacturing agglomeration to affect the ratio of house price to income by acting on the marginal production cost.The scale effect and crowding effect will change the marginal cost of production by changing the production efficiency of the agglomeration location.The increase of production efficiency makes the marginal cost a decreasing function of manufacturing agglomeration,while the decrease of production efficiency makes the marginal cost an increasing function of manufacturing agglomeration.The change of productivity results in the change of house price income ratio by affecting labor income.Next,by matching the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in2016 with the urban data,it is found that the manufacturing agglomeration of 268 prefecture level cities in China has a "U" shaped impact on the house price income ratio of the micro individual’s family,which falls first and then rises.It still holds after replacing the manufacturing agglomeration index and using Heckman two-step method to alleviate the self bias of sample selection.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on the price to income ratio varies with the size of cities and individual differences.The industrial crowding effect will promote the upgrading of industrial structure and optimize the labor force structure while dispersing the spatial distribution of industries.Under the premise of the above correlation path analysis,this paper deduces the influence process of technology service industry agglomeration by wage advantage through attracting skilled labor to push up the price of commodity housing.In the technology service industry agglomeration area,wage advantage attracts a large number of skilled labor force to flow in.Local low-income residents and skilled labor form complementary production in the local area.When low-income residents do not choose to move out because of the increase of income,the increase of population will lead to the rise of commodity housing price.Next,we use the data of 264 prefecture level cities from 2005 to2016 to investigate the impact of the agglomeration of science and technology services on housing prices,and find that there is a positive correlation between the agglomeration of science and technology services and the price of commercial housing.Furthermore,the heterogeneity analysis of threshold regression model and geographical weighted regression model shows that the impact of the agglomeration of science and technology services on the price of commercial housing varies with the level of urban income and geographical location.The capital intensive characteristics of the real estate market endow and strengthen the financial attribute of the real estate.The total amount and structure of financial resources allocation play a supporting and regulating role in the development of the real estate market and the price of commodity housing.The previous path analysis has shown that with the scale effect,resource allocation effect and competition effect of financial industry agglomeration,more funds will flow to the real estate field.By comparing the housing price equilibrium model with and without credit support,it is found that the increase of real estate development loans and personal housing consumption loans promotes the rise of commodity housing price.Combined with the empirical model,this paper studies the basic impact of financial industry agglomeration on commodity housing prices,and finds that the overall role is mainly to promote.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion of commodity housing price of financial industry cluster only exists in the cities lacking housing supply elasticity.At the same time,real estate credit is divided into real estate development loan and personal housing consumption loan.With the help of intermediary effect model,it is found that the two types of real estate credit play an intermediary role in the impact of financial industry agglomeration on commodity housing prices.Furthermore,the positive impact of financial agglomeration on commodity housing price is also supported by micro level,and spatial measurement shows that the main impact of financial agglomeration on commodity housing price is local effect.The research on the effect of industrial agglomeration in the change of commodity housing price shows that although the influence path of different industrial agglomeration on commodity housing price is obviously different,different industrial agglomeration phenomenon can promote commodity housing price.Specifically,under the guidance of the crowding effect of manufacturing agglomeration,the increase of the degree of manufacturing agglomeration promotes the rise of the price to income ratio,and the increase of the degree of agglomeration of science and technology service industry and financial industry pushes up the price of commodity housing.It shows that the rise of real housing demand under the agglomeration of science and technology service industry reduces the risk of the burst of commodity housing price bubble,while the congestion effect of manufacturing industry aggravates the ratio of housing price to income,while financial industry agglomeration provides excessive financial support for housing price rise.It can be seen that among the industrial agglomeration factors that promote the rise of commodity housing prices,the agglomeration of science and technology service industry is a reasonable factor,and the agglomeration of manufacturing industry and financial industry is an unreasonable factor.According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,through a systematic summary of the research on the impact of industrial agglomeration on the price of commercial housing,it is found that this study has economic logic enlightenment on the understanding of how to reduce the housing burden of residents in the future industrial development,how to provide support for the rise of the price of commercial housing through the real demand for housing purchase of residents,and how to avoid the phenomenon of excessive financial support.Specifically,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: implement the policy of manufacturing industry transfer,give full play to the housing price supporting role of the agglomeration of science and technology services,strictly prevent the excessive financial support caused by the agglomeration of financial industry and build a cross regional cooperation mechanism in the housing field.