Empirical Analysis And Policy Simulation On The Consumption Changes Of Rural Residents In China

Since China's reform and opening up,the achievements of China's economy have attracted worldwide attention..However,consumption as one of the three troikas driving economic growth has shown unsatisfactory performance.Economic growth has relied too much on investment and exports,thus showing that the final consumption rate has not only continued to decline from the early stages of reform and opening up 61.4%to 53.6%by 2017,but also be far less than the United States,Britain,Japan,Germany,South Korea and other developed countries.Investigate its reason,residents' consumptionespecially rural residents' consumption inadequacy is main root.Although the macroeconomic policies introduced by the state since the reform and opening up have indeed greatly improved the consumption level and lifestyle of rural residents,there is still a long way to go before the requirements for high-quality development.Especially our country is now in the key period and sprint stage of building a well-off society and realizing the goal of socialist modernization,the shortage problem of the rural residents' consumption is still the most fundamental and deep-seated reason for the lack of domestic demand in China.In view of this,based on the "13th Five-Year Plan",this study combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,under the framework of economic growth theory and consumer economic theory considering the heterogeneity of consumer demand,to analyze the changes of rural residents' consumption in China since the reform and opening up,explore the influencing factors that restrict rural residents' consumption,carry out scenario simulation and impact analysis on relevant policies,and then give corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,so as to promote the rural consumption increase and structure optimization,thereby promoting sustainable economic growth in China.Firstly,the study combs the classical consumption theory and related literature research,and gives the theoretical basis and research support of the full-text research.On this basis,it further analyzes the characteristics of consumption behavior and consumption trends of rural residents in China since the reform and opening up.The study found that,although the overall scale of rural residents' consumption is expanding and the consumption structure is constantly upgrading,it gradually presents a structural model from the survival-oriented consumption to the development-oriented and enjoyment-type consumption.However,the rural residents'consumption demand rate and the consumption growth speed is still low,structural problems such as urban-rural gaps and regional disparities still exist.Secondly,the study further explores the main influencing factors that cause rural residents to consume less and consume differently.According to theanalysis,we can find that rural residents'consumption changes are not only positively affected by income distribution,urbanization,industrialization level and other factors,but also by livelihood expenditure such as government education science,health care and social security.There are regional and category differences in the impact effect,which shows the coexistence of crowding-in effect and Crowding-out effect.Among them,the positive effect of government education science expenditure on rural residents' consumption in eastern and central regions is very obvious.In contrast,the role of fiscal education science expenditure in stimulating rural residents'consumption in Western and northeastern regions has not been apparent,showing a weak crowding-out effect;the crowding-out effect of government health and livelihood expenditure on rural residents'consumption in most regions is more obvious;The expenditure on people's livelihood of government social security has a significant positive stimulating effect on rural residents'consumption in most areas,and shows the characteristics of high in the West and low in the east.Thirdly,considering the main influencing factors selected by the econometric model,and based on the construction of the Chinese rural consumer social accounting matrix(SAM)model,the multiplier analysis and structural path analysis methods are used in the framework of SAM,to design different exogenous shock scenario simulation of the rural residents' consumption policies like the income distribution policy,the change of government spending policy and price policy.The study found that,the income distribution policy of "focusing on the weak" is more conducive to the overall improvement of rural residents' consumption,especially for the rural residents' residential consumption,followed by cultural and educational entertainment and food consumption.The transmission path is mainly affected by the cross-effect between rural residents' accounts and different commodity activity accounts of different income households;For the effect of government financial price subsidy policy,the price changes of transportation and communication consumer goods have a greater impact on rural residents,followed by food and clothing.By contrast,cultural and educational entertainment and health care have less impact.At the same time,the lower the income level of rural residents,the higher the sensitivity to the price subsidy policy.The implementation of the food price subsidy policy is more conducive to the increase of low-income household consumption of rural residents;For the impact of government education investment expenditure policy,the impact of exogenous policy shocks on labor and production workers has led to a large change in residential commodity(service)accounts,while the policy impact on skilled workers is mainly reflected in changes in cultural and educational entertainment accounts.Finally,combined with the previous analysis,the main research conclusions are given,and the countermeasures for expanding the consumption demand of rural residents in China are proposed.The first is to broaden the income sources of rural residents and build a stable income-increasing mechanism for rural residents.We need to promote the transfer of rural labor and increase the wage income of rural residents,improve the environment and efficiency of rural production and management to increase the operating income of rural residents.Also it is important to actively create conditions to increase the non-labor income of rural residents.The second is to strengthen rural infrastructure and improve the rural consumption base and environment.We should do a good job in top-level design,formulate rural infrastructure construction plans in a scientific way,coordinate the relationship between the major investors,improve the investment and financing mechanism for rural infrastructure construction,standardize the management of rural infrastructure,and improve the supporting operation system.The third is to accelerate the improvement of the rural social security system and ensure that public resources benefit more vulnerable groups in rural areas.We will press ahead with the reform of the rural social security system,speed up the integration of urban and rural social security systems,increase investment in rural social security,strengthen financial security,and strengthen legislative efforts,promote the construction of rural social security legal systems,increase publicity,and increase the participation rate of rural residents.The fourth is to implement a service-oriented government and form a government governance basis for expanding consumer demand.We must adhere to the service concept,strengthen the innovation of social management,implement the mass line,serve in place,and strengthen the expansion of rural residents' consumption environment.