| With the dynamic and stable development of the global economic situation,the construction projects at home and abroad are growing steadily.Complex large-scale construction projects are related to people's livelihood and economic benefits,and their development and construction will have a broad and far-reaching impact on the country and society.Many investors have strong financial strength and rich development and construction experience in the field of engineering construction,and begin to set foot in the development and construction of complex large-scale construction projects.The scale of project investment is getting larger and larger,the construction cycle is getting longer and longer,more and more units participate in the construction,and the project risk brought by uncertainty is becoming more and more complex.With the development of the times,complex large-scale construction project has gradually become a research hotspot in the field of project management.However,in the process of project construction,low investment efficiency,cost overrun and other phenomena are common,and the project implementation is not satisfactory at all levels.The traditional project management theory can not meet the needs of management practice at this stage.Therefore,from the perspective of complexity,it becomes a new solution to study the field of project management.How to make a scientific,systematic and in-depth analysis of the complexity of the project,how to dynamically and comprehensively grasp the cost status of the project in the process of project construction,how to judge the severity of the deviation between the actual state of the project cost and the plan,how to make a scientific alarm and forecast for the cost deviation of the project,and how to effectively correct and control the cost deviation of the project,It has become a theoretical and practical problem in front of managers.In order to monitor and manage the cost of complex large-scale construction projects more scientifically and effectively,this paper establishes a system dynamics model of influencing factors of project cost deviation based on the complexity perspective,constructs an alarm and prediction model of project cost deviation,combs the rectification process under different cost deviation degrees in the whole life cycle of the project,and then analyzes and designs a theoretical model Cost deviation control information system of complex large-scale construction project based on.The specific research contents include the following four parts:(1)Based on system dynamics,the key factors of cost deviation are identified.Firstly,the cost monitoring mode of complex large-scale construction project is summarized;on this basis,the basic theory of system dynamics and the feasibility of its application in the field of project cost deviation control are analyzed;then,the complex large-scale construction project is taken as a whole system,and the relationship between the influencing factors of cost deviation in each stage of project construction is analyzed and identified.Finally.through Vensim virtual simulation,the dynamic control model is established and its feasibility and effectiveness are verified,the key influencing factors of cost deviation are identified,and the simulation results are analyzed.(2)Research on cost deviation alarm and prediction model of complex large-scale construction project.Firstly,the demand and characteristics of cost deviation calculation in different stages of complex large-scale construction project are analyzed to provide reference and basis for the selection of cost deviation alarm method.Then,the defects of K-means clustering algorithm are analyzed,the concept of closeness is introduced,and the boundary mean operator is used as the main method to improve the classical K-means clustering,which effectively overcomes the defects Finally,an example is given to verify the effectiveness of the model.Cost deviation prediction model is the follow-up study of deviation early warning model.Firstly,the principle and connotation of neural network model are comprehensively discussed,and its feasibility and applicability in the cost deviation prediction of complex large-scale construction projects are analyzed.Then,the bionic algorithm is used to improve the traditional BP neural network,optimize the initial network weights and thresholds in the neural network model,and input the historical data into the model for training At the same time,the total deviation is finally allocated to the disturbance factors of each subitem cost,and the influence of different activities on the cost deviation in the complex large-scale construction project is deeply analyzed.When the current cost deviation is known,the influence degree on the future cost deviation is studied and quantified to determine the impending cost deviation It can effectively assist the project cost monitoring decision-makers to take measures to deal with it,so as to realize the real pre control of project cost.(3)Research on cost deviation control strategy and effect evaluation of complex large-scale construction project.Firstly,aiming at the cost deviation control strategy,this paper explores the corresponding points of process reengineering and collaboration theory,and combs the objectives and principles of process reengineering and collaboration in cost deviation control;secondly,it points out the different cost deviation warning in the early decision-making stage,mid-term implementation stage,and late operation and maintenance stage In order to enhance the applicability of the rectification process,this section proposes the rectification effect evaluation for the first time,constructs the index system from the perspective of control ability,control effect,economic and social effect,constructs the fuzzy group decision-making model based on the support theory,evaluates the rectification effect,and gives some suggestions Feedback the results and promote the continuous improvement of corrective strategy.(4)Research on the design of cost deviation control system for complex large-scale construction project.The research theory and the model are extended to the actual project cost management,and the design of cost deviation control information system for complex large-scale construction project is proposed.Firstly,the cost deviation control system of complex large-scale construction project is defined,the system construction objectives,system users and system requirements are analyzed,and the non functional and functional requirements of the system are determined.Then,the overall design framework of the cost deviation control system is constructed from four aspects of system development method,system platform,system function module and system database Detailed and in-depth design of the system;in terms of the key implementation technology of the system,this paper discusses the structural selection of development technology,introduces the core design concept of data warehouse in detail,and designs the structure and key functions of the system model management module.The system includes cost deviation alarm,cost deviation prediction,cost deviation control,deviation correction effect evaluation and other functions. |
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