Driving Mechanism,Premium Measure And Evolutionary Simulation Of Green Housing Payment Response Of Urban Residents

The construction industry is typically a high-energy,high-resource-consumption and high-pollution industry.China’s construction industry ranks first in the world in terms of scale,and it is crucial for the construction sector to achieve the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,in order to achieve green development in the construction industry.As a building product that gradually emerges under the guidance of this concept,green housing is an important way to reduce building energy consumption and achieve the goal of emission reduction by helping green housing to achieve rapid,normal and substantial promotion and use.Unlike the market-driven model of green housing development in most developed countries,the initial development of green housing in China was led by the government and driven from the top down.Although the government’s leading role can be significantly effective in public buildings,the development of commercial housing is mainly governed by market supply and demand,so the fundamental driving force for the long-term large-scale development of green housing should come from the market.In the early stage of green housing development,its supply is limited and the transaction price is mostly dominated by the supplier in the seller’s market.With the further development and improvement of the market,the supply of green housing is bound to increase.This means that in the future,the residents’ willingness to pay and their payment behavior will play an increasingly important role in determining the premium price of green homes and promoting them in the market.Therefore,it is more relevant to accurately investigate the antecedent drivers of urban residents’ WTP for green housing,the level of premium payment and the evolutionary and stable path of payment behavior.This study follows the research line of "problem formulation-theory tracing-empirical research-experimental measurement-evolutionary simulation experiment-policy recommendation",combines the basic theories and research methods of management,behavioral economics,behavioral decision making,social psychology and computer science,explores the theoretical model of green housing payment response,and constructs a three-dimensional and evolutionary path of green housing promotion based on the real situation.Specifically,this study subdivides residents’ payment responses into willingnessto-pay responses and payment behavior responses,and analyzes the driving mechanism of willingness-to-pay and premium payment for green housing based on 4862 valid questionnaires and 2858 sets of experimental data(including 1616 sets of data from intervention experiments and 1242 sets of data from contextual experiments)using literature research,qualitative analysis,empirical research,and experimental measurement.Further,we analyze the evolutionary paths and stabilization strategies of the "individual-group-society" response to green housing payment behavior in different real-life situations,and propose comprehensive policy recommendations based on the above research findings.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows.(1)Defining the connotation of urban residents’ willingness-to-pay response for green housing.From the perspective of the motivation of willingness to pay,combined with qualitative research,the five-dimensional structure of urban residents’ WTP for green housing was constructed and verified: affordable willingness to pay,functional preference willingness to pay,investment and financial willingness to pay,ecological and environmental protection willingness to pay,and self-identity willingness to pay.On this basis,we developed and validated a scale to measure urban residents’ WTP for green housing and its driving factors.The results show that the overall mean value of urban residents’ WTP for green housing is only 3.49,which is at an average level,and the lowest mean value is self-identified willingness to pay(M=2.490),which is in an overall inferior state.For the residents who have purchased/not purchased green houses,the ranking of their purchase motives/willingness to pay at that time are: functional preference > economic benefits > investment and financial management > ecological and environmental protection > self-identification.(2)A theoretical model of the response-driven mechanism of urban residents’ WTP for green housing was constructed and tested.The results show that:(1)there are significant differences in willingness to pay in terms of gender,age,education level,industry type,job level,family structure,monthly household income and household residential area;(2)the supportive attitude,driven attitude,local environmental concern,access account,high explanation level,low explanation level,subjective cognition,objective cognition,moral implicit and moral outward of individual psychological factors of residents will significantly and positively predict WTP for green housing,while loss account has a negative predictive effect;(3)environmental concern,access account,high level of explanation,and moral implication act entirely through general trust in WTP for green housing(fully mediated),while individual attitude,loss account,low level of explanation,subjective cognition,objective cognition,and moral outward appearance do not act entirely through general trust in WTP for green housing(partially mediated);(4)Contextual factors such as information claims,policy standards,and group norms positively moderate the effect of general trust on the path of WTP for green housing,while attribute barriers such as cost barrier,technology barrier,brand barrier,and logo barrier negatively moderate the effect of general trust on the path of WTP for green housing,respectively.(3)Intervention validity of key drivers of willingness to pay and field experiments on premium measures.The study of residents’ WTP for green housing and their payment behavior is implemented in the real economic level,i.e.,the question of "how much more they are willing to pay for green housing",i.e.,the "premium payment level".The experimental results show that:(1)After the intervention experiment on the key driver(mediating variable operational trust)in the theoretical model of the driving mechanism of urban residents’ WTP for green housing,the WTP for green housing of the residents in the experimental group(residents of green neighborhoods)increased from RMB 269/m~2 to RMB 291/m~2,an 8% increase;while the willingness to pay of the residents in the control group(residents of ordinary neighborhoods)increased from RMB 170/m~2 to RMB 236/m~2,an 39% increase.After running the trust intervention,the gap in willingness to pay between the experimental and control group residents decreased significantly from RMB 99/m~2 to RMB 55/m~2.It is thus deduced that the incremental willingness to pay due to the perceived operational utility gained from the green residential living experience by the residents of the experimental group is RMB44/m~2,while the other RMB 55/m~2 should be due to the difference in the two groups’ own preferences.(2)A 30-situation experiment was conducted on the key driver(moderating variable information appeals)in the theoretical model of urban residents’ WTP for green housing(the experimental operation of information appeals is to provide the corresponding benefit information cards of functional preference,affordability,investment and finance,and eco-friendly willingness to pay in the model of driving mechanism),and the joint choice experiment method showed that the residents’ willingness to pay increased after the information intervention 27.5%,which is smaller than the increase in residents’ willingness to pay(29.4%)obtained from direct inquiries about willingness to pay,and the joint choice experiment method somewhat mitigates the possible social approbability response bias in residents’ responses to green willingness to pay.Among them,functional type information claims are more concerned by residents.(4)Simulation of the evolution of green housing payment behavior from a "symbiosis-win-win" perspective.Simulation results show that:(1)for individual payment behavior response level,the interaction between policy contextual factors and internalized psychological factors in the fixed response validity scenario led to a higher learning rate of self-identified payment behavior than their self-learning rate,in which the three most critical policy contextual factors were policy implementation,organizational norms,and passive information demands.Among the scenarios with different response validity,high response validity led to the fastest formation and recurrence of self-identified payment behaviors under the interaction intervention mechanism;low response validity led to the slowest convergence of behaviors.(2)For the group payment behavior response level,comparing the four evolutionary games of individual independent and symbiotic purchases with and without policy incentives,by comparing the four benefits,it is shown that the individual benefits(economic as well as non-economic benefits)generated by symbiotic purchases are better than independent purchases in both policy incentive and no policy incentive situations.In addition,the smaller the interpersonal interaction cost,the more favorable the rapid formation of symbiotic purchase;the incentive policy further accelerates the formation of symbiotic purchase.(3)For the social payment behavior response level,the quadratic evolutionary game results by including the main stakeholders of green housing(government,virtual government,real estate developers,and residents)show that after introducing the "virtual game party"(virtual government),Matlab simulation results show that the greater the loss of negligence,the faster the government evolves.faster.The greater the government penalty,the faster the real estate agent evolves,which in turn drives up the evolutionary speed of the government and residents.The larger the government subsidy,the faster the real estate agents and residents evolve,which in turn also drives the government evolution rate.The larger the real estate agent subsidy coefficient,the faster the real estate agent evolves,and the slower the resident evolves.The larger the trust coefficient,the faster the residents evolve,which in turn also drives the government and real estate agents to evolve.The lower the risk of payment,the faster the residents evolve,which in turn also drives the government and real estate agents to evolve.Finally,based on the results of qualitative and quantitative analyses,source-based,pivotal,booster,target-based,inward-promoting and nourishing suggestions are proposed to improve the payment response level of urban residents at three levels:behavioral willingness-driven,premium payment level-promoting and real mechanisminteraction intervention.There are 209 figures,243 tables and 186 references in the paper.