The Theory And Evaluation Model Of The Carrying Capacity Of The Waterway

Inland water transport occupies an important position in China’s comprehensive transport system because of its low costs,large capacity and energy efficiency.As the national strategy of ecological civilization construction goes deeper,the demand of transport and ecological protection in China has growing constantly.Thus,in order to better adapt to the increasing water transport demand and the trend of large-size vessels,it is important to improve the dimensions of waterways to enhance the inland waterway transport capacity and shipping low-cost competitive advantage.However,rivers themselves also have many other functions,such as generating power,supplying water,preventing flood and protecting ecological areas,so how to balance multiple goals and achieve synergistic development in waterway construction has become one of the most important problems today,and both theoretical and practical fields urgently need a theoretical system of waterway carrying capacity(hereinafter referred to as WCC)under multi-objective coordination as the theoretical basis for evaluating the level of WCC and defining the maximum development scale of waterway.In this context,this dissertation selects WCC as the main object and investigates its definition,connotation,impact factors and evaluation model,based on the special research supported by the national key research and development program of China in 2006.The main research work is as follows:First,this dissertation first explains the definition and connotation of WCC,.WCC refers to the maximum waterway scale that can be developed in response to the multi-objective collaborative demand of ecology,navigation,flood control and water use based on natural endowment and under certain socio-economic and technological conditions.Meanwhile,WCC features with five characteristics,which are stages,finiteness,growability,synergy and compatibility.It also worth noting that the subject of WCC is waterway resources,and the object is the collaborative goal of "ecology--economy and navigation--multi-function utilization of rivers",and the index representing extreme limit is "maximum waterway scale".Second,this dissertation constructs the "supply layer--demand layer--development layer" influence factor system,which takes the supply and demand layer(supply layer and demand layer)of waterway resources as the framework,and takes the development capacity(development layer)as the means of promotion.Among which,the supply layer mainly reflects that the waterway scale is affected by the river water level,runoff,velocity,water and sand,river potential and other natural characteristics.The demand layer,starting from the object of WCC,takes ecology,economy and shipping and river multi-function utilization as three sub-factor layers,including 12 important influencing factors.The development layer refers to the influencing factors related to the promotion of waterway physical scale(hard power)and the influencing factors related to the promotion of service level(soft power).Then,this dissertation analyzes the connotation,rules,process and mechanism of mutual adaptability of influence factor of WCC under multi-objective cooperation,and determines the determination method of mutual adaptability stage of influence factors of WCC.Specifically,the connotation of mutual adaptability of WCC influencing factors is that the coordination of factors of internal system layer is subject to the influence and regulation of external factors,and their allocation,target,supply and demand and constraint of water resources are mutually adapted to achieve an optimal strategy.The rules of WCC mutual adaptability is a continuous nonlinear spiral with a wave-like rising process,which constantly pushes influence factors of WCC system from the low-order non-cooperative situation to the higher level of cooperative mutual adaptability.The mutual adaptative process of WCC system is a complex and longterm game process,and the degree of mutual adaptation,characteristic condition,conflict content and conflict degree of influencing factors are different in different stages.After that,this dissertation builds the evaluation index system of WCC,and analyzes the calculation method,data source and evaluation index range of each index.Moreover,the method of calculating the weight of evaluation index of WCC(AHPEntropy Method)is determined,and the theoretical model of evaluating single index and comprehensive index of WCC is proposed.This dissertation also classifies the WCC into five level,they are fully serviceable(5 points),serviceable(4 points),critical serviceable(3 points),unserviceable(2 points)and completely unserviceable(1 points),respectively.In the end,this dissertation discusses the mechanism of WCC and the theoretical structure of limit,and designs the calculation method of maximum waterway scale under multi-objective cooperation.Based on the theoretical structure of "limit" of WCC,the calculation model of ultimate WCC is designed with four single modules(natural endowment,economy and shipping,river multi-function utilization and ecological guidance module)and a comprehensive cooperation module.Given the research on the WCC value of each module in the section and the calculation results of waterway scale of each sub-module,this model combines the AHP method and entropy method and the improved coefficient of variation method to determine the synergetic weight of the results of each sub-module,and finally obtains the maximum waterway scale under multi-objective cooperation.In order to ensure the feasibility of the model,this dissertation uses AE channel as an example to verify the rationality and operability of the evaluation model and calculation method.The results of this dissertation have both important theoretical and practical implications.Theoretically,this dissertation,for the first time,takes ecology,river multi-purpose factors,combining with economic factors,as demanding factors of the waterway capacity,and explicates the definition,influence factors and the optimal mechanism of the WCC.It also enriches relevant research of WCC by constructing the evaluation model and calculation method under multi-objective coordination,and by measuring the level of WCC and the maximum waterway size.Besides,it provides a theoretical basis for the measurement of WCC and the calculation method of maximum waterway size under multi-objective cooperation by clarifying the mutual adaptative mechanism of WCC system.In practice,this dissertation puts forward a general quantitative index to directly evaluate the level of WCC,and the evaluation result is the foundation of the weighting strategy of the integrated cooperative computing module of the maximum waterway scale calculation method under multi-objective collaboration.The proposed method can effectively measure the maximum waterway scale in waterway construction,and alleviate the contradiction between current waterway construction and economy,ecology and rivers,and multi-purpose utilization.It also offers decision support for calculating the maximum waterway scale of multiobjective demand of waterway construction in the future.