The Simulation Of Beijing Carbon Emisison Driving Factors And The Reduction Mechnism Study

As the second largest economy and the largest developing country in the world,the rapid development economy of China has aroused widespread concern around the world.Correspondingly,China has become one of the world's largest energy consuming country and carbon dioxide emission country,and the following questions of energy usage problems and environmental pollution issues also be widely concerned.Particularly,as Chinese capital,Beijing owns the irreplaceable economic and political status,along with the recent "haze days",and the impact of Beijing's economic development,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions,has become a hot concern among the domestic and foreign experts,scholars and government departments.In order to deal with the dual challenges of energy shortages and environmental pollution effectively,we need to study fundamentally the causes of carbon emission and emission reduction mechanism in Beijing.Therefore,on the one hand,focusing on the "course",we employ IO-SDA(input-output structural decomposition analysis)to study the driving factors of the energy intensity.On the other hand,concentrating on the"countermeasure",we select the carbon trading system among the plenty of energy policies to instruct a system dynamics model to explore the impact of carbon trading mechanism design on economy and of carbon emissions.The driving factors of carbon emission intensity and energy intensity include energy input efficiency,technology coefficient,final demands structure by product,final demands by category,and final energy consumption coefficient.The results showed that:(1)Beijing's energy intensity declined gradually;(2)the major driving factors are energy input efficiency and final demands by category.As for the impact of CET,we established the system dynamics model,and the results showed that:(1)CET can reduce the carbon emissions with a negative impact on economy;(2)less total carbon allowances,less free quotas and higher carbon price will promote the carbon reduction and aggravate the impact on economy.