| In December 2016,the central government identified supply-side structural reform as a major innovation leading the new normal in China’s economic development,and it is required to promote the effectiveness of the supply-side structural reform.In the process of economic operation,we must focus on “cutting overcapacity,destocking,deleveraging,reducing costs and shoring up weak spots” to improve the quality of the supply system.In April 2019,the National Development and Reform Commission,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Energy Administration jointly issued “Notice on Resolving Excess Capacity in Key Areas in2019”,which pointed out that since 2016,China had eliminated a total of 810 million tons of backward coal production capacity,and completed the task of cutting overcapacity in the “13th Five Year Plan” two years in advance.Great achievements have been made in cutting overcapacity in the coal industry,indicating that the structural readjustment of the coal industry has made phased progress.However,from a strategic perspective of sustainable development,China’s coal industry is still“big but not strong”,the coal enterprise transformation still have a long way to go,the upgrading of coal industrial structure has not been fully realized,and it is urgent to continue to adjust the coal industrial structure in depth.The findings of this article can provide academic demonstration,theoretical reference and policy reference for the upgrading of China’s coal industry structure.The thesis studies the evaluation and optimization of China’s coal supply structure by comprehensively using theories and models of structural economics,industrial economics,econometrics,and system dynamics,as well as the methods of combining theory with practice,qualitative with quantitative,historical with realistic,empirical analysis with normative analysis.Along the main line of “raising questions,analyzing questions,empirical research questions,normative research questions,and summarizing questions”,tracking the purpose of “locking questions,theoretical analysis,empirical analysis,what is the answer,what should the answer be,and policy enlightenment”,and following the logic main line of “introduction,theory,history,evaluation,optimization and conclusion”,the thesis sequentially carry out the following research: elaborating the research background and significance,defining core concepts,reviewing the theoretical literature,describing the evolution of the supply structure,evaluating the status and upgrading potential of supply structure,optimizing the theoretical model and empirical model of the supply structure,drawing conclusions,and proposing enlightenment for policy guidance,policy orientation,and policy direction.The main conclusions and core arguments of the research are as follows:(1)China’s coal supply structure is close to a good intermediate level,showing a positive trend as a whole.Through the construction of evaluation model,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the coal supply structure in China.On the basis of defining the concept of coal supply structure,an evaluation index system of coal supply structure is constructed from three aspects: layout structure,production structure and product structure.It includes 1 first-level indicator(target),3 second-level indicators(criteria),7third-level indicators(sub-criteria),and 26 fourth-level indicators.Among the 26 indicators,there are 5 qualitative indicators and 21 quantitative indicators.Qualitative indicators mainly reflect the status of the layout structure,and quantitative indicators mainly reflect the status of the production structure and product structure.The meaning of each index is explained in detail,and the quantitative index data during the “11th Five Year Plan” and “12th Five Year Plan” are given.The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each index,and the consistency check of each index has passed;the membership of each qualitative index was determined through expert surveys;the membership of each quantitative index was calculated by the membership function.The overall state of China’s coal supply structure was evaluated,with a comprehensive score of 65.44 in the “11th Five Year Plan” period and 71.27 in the“12th Five Year Plan” period.The basic conclusion of the evaluation is that China’s coal supply structure during the “11th Five Year Plan” and “12th Five Year Plan” period is at an intermediate level,but during the “12th Five Year plan” period it is better than that during the “11th Five Year plan” period,and is gradually approaching the good level,reflecting China’s coal supply structure is gradually improving.(2)Overall,China’s coal supply structure has been improved,but the potential for upgrading has weakened and there is insufficient incentive for innovation.The advanced level of coal supply structure is evaluated through the contribution index of scientific and technological progress.Based on the Solow residual value model,the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress of China’s coal industry is calculated by introducing the resource element into the Cobb Douglas production function.The result is that the contribution rate of capital is the largest among the input elements in the period of “11th Five-Year Plan ”and “12th Five-Year Plan”,which is basically higher than 60% in each calculation period,indicating that capital is the main driving force for the development of coal industry in China.The result is that the contribution rate of the scientific and technological progress of the coal industry during the “11th Five Year Plan” period is 38.82%,and that during the first four years of the“12th Five Year Plan” is 22.12%.The contribution rate of the scientific and technological progress during the “12th Five Year Plan” period is lower than that during the “11th Five Year Plan” period.The evaluation results reveal that,with the overall state of the coal supply structure improving,the driving force of the coal industry’s technological innovation has not been improved simultaneously,and the power of technological progress has weakened,indicating that the potential for the transformation and upgrading of the coal supply structure has been reduced.During the period from the “11th Five Year Plan” to the“12th Five Year Plan”,China’s coal supply structure has improved,comprehensive indicators are close to good,and fundamentals are optimistic,but the potential for structural upgrades has weakened,core indicators have been reduced,and innovation momentum has been insufficient.The evaluation conclusion tells us that there is still room for improvement in China’s coal industry technology,and that it is necessary to continue to optimize the coal supply structure.Efforts should be made to enhance the driving force for technological innovation in the process of structural optimization.(3)Scientific and technological innovation and green development are the focus of the optimization path design of China’s coal supply structure.The system dynamics model of coal supply structure optimization is constructed according to the complete process of “modeling purpose,modeling hypothesis,system boundary and variable setting,causality diagram design,equation construction,overall flow diagram design,and model validity test”.Among them,the design of the cause-effect diagram is divided into two subsystems: the coal production capacity control subsystem and the coal structure optimization subsystem,which reflects the innovative design of the application of system dynamics model in coal structure optimization.Through the design of three total variables of technological innovation,green development and policy regulation,the path and scenario of optimizing the coal supply structure are selected and simulated.The transmission mechanism of total variables affecting coal supply and demand is elaborated,and the effects of set variables on coal supply and demand under various comparative scenarios are simulated.Using the index system for evaluating the coal supply structure,various path systems(collections)are selected to exert various effects on the index system(collections)of coal supply structure,and the simulation results(collections)for optimizing the coal supply structure are obtained.The above optimization model reveals that the key to realize the optimization of the supply structure is innovation and precision.Scientific and technological innovation variables are the core of choosing the optimization path,green development variables are the key to determine the quality of optimization,and the accuracy of policy control variables is the guarantee to optimize the balance between supply and demand.(4)The key to the implementation of China’s coal supply structure optimization model is coordination and precise policy.The optimized implementation mode that under the guidance of the goal,the market,the government,enterprises,industry associations,and other constructors cooperate to promote,and technology innovation,system innovation and human resources drive together is designed according to the implementation path of “following the principles,defining the goal,coordination of subjects,and ensuring the power”.The supply-demand equilibrium model for the optimization of coal supply structure is proposed,and it is pointed out that equilibrium is a very ideal goal that cannot be reached,and non-equilibrium is the normal state that can be adjusted to equilibrium by adjusting variables;the optimization process of coal supply structure is the process of obtaining the optimal model of coal supply structure under the given constraints,and the result is a long-term trend of equilibrium between supply and demand.This paper constructs a policy support model for optimizing the coal supply structure,and designs a structural status indicator system,a set of government policy documents,and a set of policy transmission paths;the policy document set includes a total of 68 relevant policy documents for approximately five years from 2016 to 2020.Through the linear unidirectional or cross-directional arrangement and combination of policy document set and supply structure measurement index,the table of key points of policy support to optimize coal supply structure is formed.The above optimization model reveals that the key to realize the optimization of supply structure is collaboration,coordination and precision.The key to achieving the optimized implementation model of the supply structure is collaboration,which is reflected in the cooperation between the various implementation entities and the coordination between the entities and the implementation force;the key to achieving the equilibrium model of the supply structure optimization is coordination,which is reflected in the dynamic balance of supply and demand and the adaptation of the supply structure to various environmental constraints;the key to achieving the policy support model of structural optimization is precision,which is reflected in the accuracy of industrial policy content,structural measurement index,and policy transmission paths.The conclusions of this paper are of reference significance to the formulation and implementation of China’s coal industry policies,especially industrial structure policies.The policy implications are summarized as follows:(1)Policy orientation should reflect the development concept.The development concept is the forerunner of development action,and the convergence of development ideas,development directions,and development focus,which has great guiding significance for solving the problem of upgrading the coal industry structure,enhancing the industrial development impetus and cultivating the industrial development advantages.The coal industry policy should keep abreast of the times and reflect the concept of innovation,green and coordinated development.(2)The policy orientation should highlight the key points of regulation.It should play a strong policy role when the market malfunctions,and should also make“top-level design” to provide policy support for the structural adjustment of the coal industry while giving full play to the fundamental and decisive role of the market.Under the background of the new normal of China’s economic development,the supply-side structural reform and energy structure adjustment of the coal industry,the reduction of overcapacity has become the focus of industrial policy regulation,among which promoting coal supply and demand balance is the key goal of coal industry policy regulation.(3)Policies should be directed to provide precise support.The implementation of industrial policies depends to a large extent on a fine understanding and accurate grasp of the policies.The scattergun policies cannot be accurately implemented and make the actual effect.The research in this paper shows that most policy documents related to the coal industry structure in China in the past five years have clearly put forward precise implementation requirements. |
