| The fifth assessment report of the IPCC further shows that global warming is accelerating and human activities are the main cause.Whether based on the Stern or Nordhouse settings,the global emission reduction situation is extremely serious.As the largest carbon emitter and energy consumer in the world,China is under tremendous internal and external pressure in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and coping with climate change.It has been clearly stated in its target of independent contribution to the United Nations that the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of China will decrease by 60% to 65% by 2030 compared with 2005,and the total carbon dioxide emissions will reach a peak,and strive to reach the peak as soon as possible.The National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)has launched pilot carbon markets in seven provinces and cities,including Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Chongqing,Guangdong,Hubei and Shenzhen,in October 2011.As of October 2018,the seven pilot carbon markets covered more than 20 industries,such as electricity,steel and cement.Nearly 3,000 emission control enterprises,with a total turnover of more than 250 million tons and a total turnover of about 6 billion yuan,have been established.Under this background,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the mechanism and optimization path of China’s carbon emission trading mechanism.Starting with the specific application of total amount control and trading mechanism in China’s carbon market,this paper systematically analyses the mechanism of carbon market operation mechanism,evaluates the effect of pilot carbon market policy and evaluates the operational efficiency of pilot carbon market.On this basis,it draws lessons from domestic and foreign emission reduction markets and gives some countermeasures and suggestions to give full play to the role of carbon market operation mechanism.This paper systematically analyses the restraint and incentive effects of carbon trading mechanism on participants in carbon market by constructing supply-demand model of supply-locked market,Titanberg marginal cost difference model of emission reduction,cost minimization model of enterprises and Capital Carbon Asset Pricing model.it points out that the mechanism of ETS is mainly through the carbon-reduction performance evaluation of government officials,carbon emission hard constraints on enterprises,the pursuit of minimizing the cost of performance and maximizing the benefits of carbon assets,incentives for investors to share the benefits of carbon emission reduction,regulatory penalties and support services.The binding policy effects of the carbon market are mainly reflected in the following two aspects: first,the national energy-saving and emission-reduction planning determines the local(provincial administrative units)energy-saving and emission-reduction planning,and the local energy-saving and emission-reduction goals also determine the total quota allocation.Therefore,the central government’s assessment of the fulfillment of the local government energy-saving and emission-reduction goals will produce the binding policy effects of reducing carbon emissions;second,it is included in the control.In the process of production and operation,enterprises will consider the quantitative relationship between their actual carbon emissions and the actual quotas issued by the government.That is to say,the quota allocation produces the binding policy effect that enterprises are forced to participate in carbon emission reduction.The incentive policy effect of carbon market is embodied in two aspects: the cost difference of emission reduction in emission control enterprises and the share of emission reduction benefits among investors.Firstly,because the cost difference of emission reduction is the motive force for enterprises to participate in carbon trading.On the basis of comprehensive consideration of emission reduction costs,carbon purchase costs and penalty costs,trading can produce incentive policy effects for enterprises to achieve the goal of reducing performance costs and maximizing the value of carbon assets;secondly,the participation of institutions and individual investors increases the activity of the carbon market,which can reduce the financing costs of emission reduction of the controlled enterprises,and at the same time share the emission reduction offices of enterprises.The income generated will produce corresponding incentive policy effects.In addition,in order to ensure the binding and incentive policies to play a role,we need corresponding regulatory and punishment policies as support;finally,in order to ensure the normal operation of the carbon market,we also need the participation of exchanges,verification agencies,advisory services and the public,and need the corresponding participatory policies to provide protection.In particular,it should be noted that in the early stage of the carbon market,a reasonable combination of tools and means such as quota issuance,price stabilization mechanism and compensation mechanism will be more conducive to the functioning of the carbon market operation mechanism.For the evaluation of the policy effect of the carbon market operation mechanism,this paper is based on the quasi-natural experiment of the pilot carbon market in China,using the panel data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2017,using the difference-in-difference method to evaluate the policy effect of the pilot carbon market.The study finds that after controlling various variables that may affect the per capita carbon emissions at the regional level,China’s pilot carbon market policy has a significant policy effect on the reduction of regional per capita carbon emissions.After adding the time trend item,the multiple difference coefficient is still significant,which further illustrates that the pilot carbon market policy is effective as a whole in terms of the effect of carbon emission reduction.In addition,the empirical results also show that the growth of GDP will reduce per capita carbon emissions,while urbanization rate,the proportion of industrial output value,the percentage of fossil energy consumption,the proportion of employment in state-owned enterprises and the growth of environmental expenditure will increase per capita carbon emissions.In the part of evaluating the operation efficiency of the seven pilot carbon markets,this paper mainly uses the method of expert rating and questionnaire to construct a comprehensive index system which can characterize the allocation of quotas,trading mechanism and supervision and punishment of the seven pilot carbon markets.On this basis,it evaluates the differences of the operation efficiency of the seven pilot projects.The evaluation results show that the three pilot projects in Hubei,Shenzhen and Shanghai have higher operational efficiency,followed by Beijing and Guangdong,and Tianjin and Chongqing.At the same time,due to the "false prosperity" caused by the small volume of Shenzhen pilot and the pricing point trading method adopted,Therefore,as far as operational efficiency is concerned,Hubei and Shanghai are the most robust and efficient carbon markets in the 7 pilot projects.Typical applications of total amount control and trading mechanism in the international emission reduction market mainly include the phased decline market of leaded gasoline in the United States,the sulfur dioxide quota trading market in the United States,the European Union carbon market,the Korean carbon market and carbon markets in other countries and regions.By comparing the sulphur dioxide quota market in the United States and the pilot carbon market in China,it is found that the theoretical basis,the stage of development,the severity of environmental problems and the importance attached to market instruments are the same.However,the background of the times,the scope of market radiation and the strength of policy are different.On the basis of summing up the experience and lessons from home and abroad,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of China’s carbon market from the aspects of constraints,incentives,guarantees and participation.The main contributions of this paper are as follows: firstly,before the formal operation of the national carbon market,the research on the mechanism and optimization path of China’s carbon trading mechanism is forward-looking and instructive;secondly,when evaluating the effectiveness of carbon market policies,the difference-in-difference method based on quasi natural experiments is used to avoid the endogenous problems of policies as explanatory variables,and time trend items are added to the model to demonstrate the long-term policy effect of 2014-2017 after the operation of the pilot carbon market.The evaluation results are more reasonable and to test the policies Thirdly,in order to solve the problem of insufficient data samples and difficult to quantify the evaluation indicators,this paper makes constructive attempts and improvements in data collection and index expert quantitative evaluation.More than 30 industry senior experts,including competent departments,carbon emission trading exchanges,carbon asset management companies,carbon fund companies and carbon verification agencies,collected and collated more than 400 qualitative and quantitative index data representing the quota allocation,trading mechanism and regulatory punishment of the carbon market,and then evaluated the operation efficiency of the pilot carbon market,with more evaluation results With reliability and credibility. |
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