| In the past three decades of reform and opening up,China’s economy has grown exponentially,and the rapid economic development has also brought increasingly severe environmental problems.Among them,the climate problem caused by carbon emissions has become a hot spot of common concern in my country and the world.For my country,economic development is the main task and the line cannot be changed.Environmental protection cannot hinder economic development.Among the many carbon emission reduction measures,carbon emission trading has attracted the attention of countries all over the world due to its market-oriented and sustainable features.my country has made great progress in the construction of carbon trading market.Evaluating the impact of the operation of the carbon trading market on my country’s regional carbon emission efficiency and the path of action can provide a realistic basis and quantitative information for the relevant departments to improve the construction of the carbon trading market.Based on this,the research content and research conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,combined with the actual situation in my country,the top-down carbon emission accounting system is used to estimate the total carbon emission of inter-provincial regions in my country,and then the carbon emission efficiency of my country is measured from the perspectives of single factor and total factor.In this paper,carbon productivity is used as a measure of carbon emission efficiency from the perspective of single factor.Compared with single factor carbon emission efficiency,there is currently no authoritative and unified definition of total factor carbon emission efficiency in academia,and there is no specific and detailed measurement method.instruction of.In view of this,this paper believes that the connotation of total factor carbon emission efficiency is to reflect the maximum economic benefits that may be generated while social and economic activities produce carbon emissions.The ratio of the maximum possible output and minimum carbon emissions that can be obtained to the actual output and carbon emissions under the given factors.According to this definition,in terms of specific calculation methods,this paper constructs the NDDF model and SBM model based on the distance function in the non-radial direction,adds carbon dioxide as a non-desirable output into the efficiency calculation model,and takes the desired output and carbon emission slack into account.The ratios are distributed in an equal weight manner.The total factor carbon emission efficiency defined and measured in this way is a mixed efficiency that includes the carbon emission of the physical unit and the economic output of the monetary unit,and its policy significance also includes the two dimensions of emission reduction efficiency and economic efficiency.The calculation results in this chapter provide a scientific data basis for the subsequent quantitative analysis.The main research conclusions are:(1)There are significant regional differences in carbon productivity.From the perspective of dynamic development trajectory,except for individual provinces and cities such as Beijing and Shanghai,the carbon productivity of other provinces and cities showed a downward trend from 2000 to mid-2017.(2)The total factor carbon emission efficiency and carbon productivity calculated based on the NDDF model and the SBM model are roughly the same in terms of regional differences,showing the characteristics of higher efficiency in the eastern coastal areas and lower in the central and western regions,but dynamic changes The trend is completely opposite,and the carbon emission efficiency from the perspective of total factors is increasing year by year.Then,with the development of communication and transportation networks,the economic exchanges between adjacent regions are increasingly close,the carbon dioxide emission in the atmosphere has no geographical restrictions,and the spatial transfer of carbon emissions is inevitable,ignoring its spatial correlation.Measurement results are often inaccurate and do not correspond to reality.Based on this,on the basis of measuring my country’s regional carbon emission efficiency,this paper uses spatial testing methods such as K-means cluster analysis,global Moran’s I index,and local Moran scatter plot to evaluate the spatial distribution of my country’s regional carbon emission efficiency.The distribution characteristics and spatial correlation are analyzed and tested,which provides a feasible basis for the subsequent research on the spatial measurement of carbon emission efficiency.The test results show that:(1)The results of cluster analysis analysis show that carbon emissions and carbon emissions efficiency are not completely corresponding to the spatial distribution,and the cluster skewness of carbon emissions efficiency is stronger,while the carbon emissions The cluster skewness of is relatively stable.(2)It can be seen from the global Moran’s I index,the local Moran’s I index and the local Moran scatter plot in my country from 2000 to 2017 that the carbon emission efficiency is not randomly distributed in space,but is clustered.features,and their spatial dependencies cannot be ignored.Secondly,after measuring my country’s carbon emission efficiency and testing its spatial correlation,according to the development process of my country’s carbon trading market "from point to surface",this paper innovatively studies the two differences of "pilot" and "national".The impact of the operation of the carbon trading market under the trading scope on the regional carbon emission efficiency.There are different methods for evaluating the impact of the operation of carbon trading market pilots and national carbon trading markets on carbon emission efficiency.For the impact of the pilot operation of the carbon trading market and the evaluation of its spatial effect,this paper innovatively adopts the double difference method based on the spatial Durbin model(SDM-DID)for empirical analysis,and decomposes the total effect according to the partial differential equation to obtain Spatial spillover effects.In the evaluation of the impact of the launch of the national carbon trading market,since the national carbon trading market has just been established and lacks actual economic data,this paper starts with the shadow price of carbon dioxide that reflects the difference in regional marginal abatement costs.The non-parametric method simulates the scenario of a nationwide carbon trading market from 2000 to 2017,and quantitatively analyzes the direction and degree of impact of the operation of the national carbon trading market on regional carbon emission efficiency.The main research results are as follows:(1)The establishment of the carbon trading market pilot is conducive to the improvement of carbon emission efficiency in the pilot area,and the effect persists for three years after the establishment of the carbon trading market pilot.In addition,among the provinces and cities that have set up pilot carbon trading markets,Beijing,Shanghai,and Guangdong have improved carbon emission efficiency more than Tianjin,Chongqing,and Hubei.(2)The pilot provinces and cities that started the carbon trading market played a leading role in demonstration,green technology can spill over to the surrounding areas,and the non-pilot areas realized the flow of welfare with the help of the policy dividends of the pilot areas,which made the pilot operation of the carbon trading market effective.Positive overflow in space.In addition,the spatial spillover effect is greater than its direct effect on the pilot area,which indicates that it is unreasonable to focus only on the direct effect and seriously ignore the spatial spillover effect in previous studies.(3)There are obvious differences in the shadow price of carbon dioxide between different regions,which shows that there are differences in the marginal cost of emission reduction in my country.There is a driving force between regions to reduce the cost of emission reduction through trading,and the opening of a national carbon trading market is realistic.Base.(4)Under the scenario of simulating the operation of the national carbon trading market,the overall carbon emission efficiency is significantly improved compared with the actual carbon emission efficiency,but there are also cases where the carbon emission efficiency does not increase but declines in individual regions.Finally,on the basis of the previous research finding that different carbon emission trading scopes(the pilot carbon trading market and the national carbon trading market)can improve the efficiency of regional carbon emissions,we further explore how the carbon trading market is optimized in the operation process.carbon efficient.Firstly,the main factors affecting carbon emission efficiency are analyzed from the three dimensions of structure effect,scale effect and technology effect,and a BP neural network model is constructed to test the significance of the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency,so as to understand the main factors for improving carbon emission efficiency.The driving factors;secondly,starting from the core mechanism of the carbon trading market "carbon price fluctuation",theoretically and mathematically analyze how the carbon emission rights trading price affects the transmission path of emission control enterprises,and combined with the impact of carbon emission efficiency analyzed above The main factors of the impact of carbon trading market price fluctuations on carbon emission efficiency are put forward.Finally,a multi-parallel mediation effect model based on the spatial Durbin model is constructed to test and compare the mediation effect of the action paths proposed above,and get the result.Spatial spillover effects of different action paths.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The main factors affecting carbon emission efficiency are industrial structure,technological progress,industrial structure and other factors.(2)The optimal emission reduction level of enterprises is related to the current carbon price in the carbon trading market,the number of products produced by enterprises and other factors;in addition,the fluctuation of carbon price will affect the production and investment decisions of enterprises,which is reflected in the industry at the macro level.Changes in structure and industrial structure.(3)The path mediation effect test of the impact of carbon trading market price fluctuations on carbon emission efficiency is established.The carbon price fluctuations in the carbon trading market will be affected by optimizing the industrial structure and industrial low-carbon structure,improving the energy consumption structure and innovating low-carbon technologies.To achieve the optimization of carbon emission efficiency.In addition,different action paths also have positive spatial spillover effects. |
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