Study On Risk Management Of International EPC Cement Project

China’s cement engineering project contractors promptly occupy the international cement engineering construction market on the strength of the new-type core dry process for cement production with the independent intellectual property rights and the perfect engineering industrial chain and price advantage. At present, China’s cement engineering project contractors don’t pay sufficient attention to risks in the EPC projects due to its overly fast development, the lack of the experience in managing the international EPC general contracting and their limited understanding of the EPC contract conditions, the external environment of the engineering construction and the numerous limits of commanding the technical normative standards; at the same time, they are also in urgent need of the scientific risk management system and the support of the practical risk assessment techniques, so risk accidents are of frequent occurrence in the engineering construction practice, which can exert a grave influence on the achievement of the pre-set targets. Therefore, from the point of view of the engineering contractors, it is of urgent necessity to study the risk management system and the risk analysis methods of the international cement engineering projects under the mode of EPC contract so as to guide practice with theory and bring the practice up to the theoretical level.This paper proposes "No-fault liability of the proprietor" and "Unlimited risk principle of the contractor" under EPC contract mode by analyzing the development trends and construction features and risk features of the international EPC cement engineering technology and management and studying FIDIC-EPC contract conditions and exploring for the risk-generating mechanism and risk distribution principles of EPC engineering projects from the perspective of the risk distribution mechanism under the EPC contract mode. On that basis, this paper systematically studies the risk classification, risk identification methods and builds the risk factor structure by combining the generalization and summarization of a large number of risk accidents in the engineering management practice. Besides, it also comprehensively discusses the key risk factors in the environmental risks, operation risks and implementation risks and also conducts the systematic and profound study of the major risk factors and risk contents existing in such respects as the nation-to-nation environment, the project stakeholders, the natural environment, the tender offers, the contract signing, business operations, design, purchase and construction, etc.This paper proposes the establishment of the international EPC cement engineering management information (PRMIS) system framework on the basis the study of all kinds of engineering risk analysis methods as this system can efficiently provide the risk managers with the risk data and the evaluation model. This framework is composed of the risk database and the expert system, collects and processes the historical statistic data related to the major risk factors, risk events, countermeasures, etc., to realize the basic contents and flows of the risk management, including the identification, evaluation decision-making monitoring and control of the international EPC cement engineering projects. This method brings the experience knowledge, theoretical knowledge, data information and computer technology into the organic combination, also the decision-making, management and material information departments into the organic combination as it represents the inevitable development orientation of the innovation and breakthrough of engineering risk management theory and practice.The risk evaluation model identified in this paper is to take into account the software materialization under the engineering risk management system. This paper adopts the improved AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)-MFCE(Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)Mode to solve the hierarchical structural problems related to the single-factor risk sequencing, risk degree evaluation and risk disposal solution selection in the international EPC cement engineering risk evaluation; and the problem related to the total risk evaluation in the engineering project based on Multi-empowerment; The simulation technology and engineering risk analytical theory is highly combined by applying the comparatively advanced commercial risk simulation software package to establish the schedule risk checklist and schedule risk simulation and analysis model for the international EPC cement engineering project and conduct the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors affecting the engineering schedule. In view of the uncertainty and randomness of all individual projects and partial engineering activity time comprising the construction schedule, this paper adopts the typical examples based on the traditional schedule control technology and the schedule risk analytical method of the simulation technology and the different probability distribution approaches to put the schedule risks under experiment and analysis on which to draw the conclusion. Finally, this paper proposes the corresponding risk countermeasures.This author summarizes the research in the field and points out the shortcomings and the expectation for the future research work.