The Supply And Demand Pattern Of Global Copper Resources And The Supply Conception In China

Copper is an important mineral resource and one kind of strategic resources. When coming into the 21st century, with the rapidly development of economy in China, India and other developing countries, the resource demand and commodity price are climbing, meanwhile, the utilization condition of global resources is much difficult. Under the background of industrialization, marketization and globalization, it is an important foundational question about formulating China copper resource security strategy, that how to realize correctly global copper resource pattern and grasp scientifically the supply and demand tendency of China.In this paper, Based on highly summarizing the structure of global copper resources, industry and market, I predict the global and Chinese copper demand tendency under the rules of copper resource consumption and economic development. And considering the actual situation of Chinese supply and demand, I also make a plan for Chinese future copper supply. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The supply and demand pattern of global copper resource is undergoing profound changes. The copper demand center has shifted from western countries to the developing countries, while Asia has become the demand center of global copper resource.(2) Considering the capita copper resource consumption and capita GDP S-shaped rules, I predict global copper resource demand tendency in three different groups of countries. Now, the capita copper consumption of developed countries has passed the peak area, in future, their capita copper consumption will decrease slowly. The capita copper consumption of industrialized countries is over the turning point, their capita copper consumption grow rate will be reduced in future, and their capita copper consumption will arrive at the peak when the capita GDP is 14000 U.S. dollars. The capita copper consumption of less developed countries is lower than the take-off point, in future, their capita copper consumption grow rate will be increased, and their capita copper consumption peak will realize when the capita GDP is 12000 U.S. dollars.(3) In the future, the global copper consumption is increased continuously.In 2035 global copper consumption will rise to 27million tons from 18.2 million tons in 2008, then, the cumulative copper, consumption is 647 million tons in nearly 30 years. Chinese copper consumption is increased firstly, then slowdown. Around 2024 its copper consumption will be the maximum that is nearly 8 million tons, then capita copper consumption is 5.3-5.51 kg/person..(4) China's Foreign Dependence for copper resources will drop from the current 70% down to 50% in 2030; however, the foreign dependence volume will remain at the level of 4 million tons per year. In order to reduce the contradiction between supply and demand of copper resources, ensure the sustainable supply of copper resources and the source security of overseas, we should speed up the rate of the foreign independent capacity building. To achieve that the proportion of independent capacity account for foreign copper supply is more than 1/3,this study suggest that the foreign independent capacity of copper will rise to 0.6 million tons in 2020, and finally to 1 million tons/year...