HOUSE PRICE CHANGE, RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND FILTERING: METROPOLITAN TORONTO, 1970 - 1979

Studies of residential mobility and filtering have focussed on the physical and causal aspects of movement, and the variations in the cost and quality of housing services that accompany these changes. Sharp fluctuation in house prices, especially the kind produced by a speculative bubble, can affect the timing and quantity of housing purchased. This theme is developed in this study by examining the impact of house price change on patterns of residential mobility and filtering in Metropolitan Toronto during the period 1970-1979.; The examination of the manner in which price changes affected the accumulation of capital gains reveals that during periods of sharp prices increase, capital gains accrued to existing home owners at a rate greatly in excess of the rate of growth in real incomes. This increased the amount of equity available to homeowners, thus reducing the level of financial constraint associated with the decision to move. The increases in price that benefited homeowners had the opposite effect on prospective purchasers. This group was faced with higher overall prices, as well as higher initial downpayments during the period of increase.; House price change created a set of equity conditions that segregated purchaser groups based on the extent of financial constraint which housing market conditions imposed. This produced a wave-like pattern of mobility that generally followed the pattern of price change with the wealthy relocating at the peaks and the new entrants in the valleys.; Studies of residential mobility in Geography have depended heavily on the composite indices of Socio-economic Status and Stage in the Life Cycle for explanations of mobility. However, there are substantial problems associated with the use of these indices for explanatory purposes. These problems derive from: the broad variation in definition of the indices; the difficulty of defining which stage or stages of the life cycle are addressed, and the highly subjective interpretations that make comparison of the results of different studies difficult. In addition, the use of composite indices has changed the emphasis from the relatively weak individual relationships among the variables that comprise the index to the stronger factor loadings.