| In recent years, the commodity residential house prices in China are growing up.Although the price varies in different kinds of cities, generally it is rising. The ratio of theincome from house sales in the first-tier cities is40times, which is more than the world’shighest level. The trend of housing prices of Hunan Province is the same with other cities, andthere are some significant regional differences. Government austerity measures have resultedin soaring prices, and the public generally can’t accept it. What are the factors which pushhouse prices rising every year? In2014national house market bleak that changes from the"hard to get a room" to "fire sale prices,”. In the background of nationwide credit tighteningand excess supply in some areas, influenced by the situation, some areas of the real estatemarket has just begun. So the real estate market in Hunan Province will turn? The bulletinshows that in2014chang-zhu-tan region has completed real estate development andinvestment accounted for more than half of the province.What factors have significantinfluences on residential real estate prices in Hunan Province? And how does it influenced?Based on the above research background, this article will take the prices of thecommercial houses in Hunan Province as the research object, at the same time, use the relatedknowledge of the commercial housing price and the theory of the price formation mechanismto make a qualitative analysis on the present situation of Hunan commercial housing marketfrom the two aspects of demand and supply. On the one hand, from the perspective of both thedemand and supply, the status quo residential real estate market of Hunan Province isanalyzed qualitatively. On the other hand, from1996to2012the sales of commercial housingsales area, sales as well as the province’s real estate sales and sales of residential real estatemarket in Hunan Province demand is increasing, after2008, there is turning point, the speedof demand is rising rapidly; on the other hand, from1996-2012, annual index value of totalfixed asset investment, real estate investment, construction and completion of the area andother areas of Hunan Province can be reflected through charts on the residential real estatemarket supply situation intuitively; secondly, according to the analysis of a combination ofsupply and demand Status contrast, Factors index systems that have a significant impact havebeen built and Hunan Province is to build commercial housing prices and supply demandfactors model factor model for quantitative studies respectively. Factors that affect the price of housing demand factors empirical research will be divided into three different degrees ofHunan Economic Zone, which were selected from three cities, namely Changsha, Zhuzhou,Xiangtan, Changde, Yiyang, Loudi, Zhangjiajie, Hunan, Huaihua. The City of HunanProvince, nine years of relevant statistical data1996-2012panel data were analyzed, in orderto establish the average sales price of residential real estate is explained variable Y, to theurban population X1, per capita gross domestic product X2, years sales area of X3is thedemand factor model explanatory variables, by eviews6.0process data showed that residentialreal estate prices in the urban population of X1on Y remarkable. As the price of housingunder the influence of factors affecting supply factors limitations in resources and time datacollection of empirical studies using time series analysis1996-2012years, to establish theaverage sales price of residential real estate is explained variable Y, land prices X4,construction cost X5, completed in area X6, X7is a real estate investment model explanatoryvariables supply factors, obtained construction cost X5Y greatest impact on prices. Thencreate a predictive model of commodity prices in Hunan by induction of the most significantfactors resulting regression equation by checking with a good forecast prices. Finally, theconclusions of this study on the basis of the above control policy proposals put forward onrising house prices in order to stabilize the residential real estate prices in Hunan so that everypeople can get a house to live in and make the development of residential real estate market ina good order. |
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