The Impact Of Housing Price Change On Consumption

In recent years,with the growth of national economic scale and per capita GDP,the traditional investment and export play a weaker and weaker role in pulling the economy.The transformation of national economic structure is imperative.Expanding domestic demand has become an important driving force in the current economic transformation,and the impact of rising house prices on consumption has become a focus of attention.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of housing price changes on Residents'consumption.Firstly,this paper reviews the development process of the relationship between house price and consumption at home and abroad,and discusses the theoretical basis and transmission mechanism of the impact of house price change on consumption combined with housing wealth effect and crowding-out effect.Then,this paper describes the development of the national real estate in the past 20 years from city development,residents of housing price income ratio and leverage.Further,this paper selects the data of urban real estate market,economic development and urban residents'income and expenditure from 2002 to 2016,carries on cluster analysis to 34 large and medium-sized cities,and carries on the similarity and difference analysis to four groups of cities,and study the impact of housing price change of different urban groups on consumption empirically through regression.Finally,this paper proposes that there is a nonlinear relationship between housing price change and consumption,and proves the rationality of the threshold effect from both theoretical and practical perspectives,so as to choose housing price and its'growth rate as threshold variables to analyze the impact of price change on consumption.The empirical results show that:Firstly,34 large and medium-sized cities are divided into four groups by cluster analysis.And according to the regression results of the total sample and each group,disposable income is the decisive factor affecting urban residents'consumption expenditure,the consumption elasticity was above 0.7.The impact of house price change on the consumption of urban residents is different.It has a slight wealth effect on the consumption of the total sample group and the first group,the consumption elasticity is 0.0958 and 0.5175 respectively,but the consumption elasticity is-0.8124,-0.2791 and-0.8004 respectively for the second,third and fourth groups;Secondly,the empirical results based on the threshold model show that when the house price is taken as the threshold variable,the threshold value is 7.640 and 9.663 respectively,that is,the house price is 2080 yuan/m~2 and 15725 yuan/m~2 respectively.When the house price is less than 2080 yuan/m~2,the rise of house price has a slight wealth impact on consumption;When the house price is more than 2080 yuan/m~2 but less than 15725yuan/m~2,the wealth effect of house price rise on consumption is one order of magnitude higher than the previous one,and the consumption elasticity is 0.0645,When the house price is more than 15725 yuan/m~2,the rise of house price has crowding-out effect on consumption and the consumption elasticity is-0.0062.When the house price growth rate is taken as the threshold variable,the threshold value is 0.074 and 0.088,that is,the house price growth rate is 7.40%and 8.80%,respectively.When the house price growth rate is in the range of 7.40%-8.80%,the rise of house price on the promotion of consumption is more obvious,the house price elasticity to consumption reaches 0.211,and when the house price growth rate is lower than 7.40%or higher than8.80%,the price rise has a certain inhibitory effect on consumption.According to the theoretical basis and empirical results,this paper offers the corresponding policy recommendations in income of residents,social security system,the real estate market and other aspects.